Analysis : In Two Weeks, Israel’s Pro-democracy Protest Could Seem Like a Walk in the Park

As the judicial coup bills near final votes, the protesters – who have already made significant achievement – could paralyze the country completely? President Herzog’s compromise includes a win for the ultra-Orthodox

By Amos Harel, HAARETZ 17.3.23

Israelis demonstrate during Day of Resistance, as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s nationalist coalition government presses on with its contentious judicial overhaul, in Tel Aviv, Israel March 16, 2023. Credit: Amir Cohen / REUTERs

If the Netanyahu government’s unseemly rush to complete the legislation that makes up the judicial revolution continues to go unchecked over the next two weeks, the mass protests across the country will become even more intensive and even more disruptive.

The government’s tone-deaf declarations and decisions, along with the proposed legislation, have continuously reignited the opposing camp for the last two-and-a-half months. President Isaac Herzog’s decision to present his latest compromise plan two days ago only managed to create another twist; Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who was on a trip to Germany at the time, immediately rejected “The People’s Directive,” under pressure from home, while two opposition leaders, Yair Lapid and Benny Gantz, responded positively.

Toward the end of this month, the opposition is expected to ratchet up the protest by several notches. If protest leaders’ plan are realized, the day of disruption held on Thursday will look like a walk in the park by comparison. The goal is to paralyze, without resorting to violence, a great part of the daily country’s operations, with an emphasis on pressuring coalition Knesset members who may be wavering and could be persuaded to reconsider their support of the plan.

The protest movement has already identified 10 lawmakers and cabinet members from the right and the ultra-Orthodox parties. They were singled out, ahead of the most recent bout of voting, as key figures in the legislative process, or as potentially weak links in the coalition. The joint leaders of the protest movement are constantly trying to synchronize the operations of more than 100 participating organizations. Eran Schwarz, an educator and former Air Force pilot and now the director of these efforts, told Haaretz that the number of communities in which protests were held last Saturday night jumped from 80 to over 100, and that the number of people participating in the demonstrations increasing weekly.

Schwarz, who was a deputy director-general in the Ministry for Social Equality in the previous government, has been holding together an impressive and effective headquarters, with activists who have totally surprised the government in their intensity, determination and enthusiasm. One of the wise decisions made by protest leaders was to stay away from currently serving politicians. Opposition parties are not leading the protest and are only trying to ride the huge wave it is creating in the streets. In the central weekly rally in Tel Aviv, politicians who are currently serving in the Knesset have been barred from speaking. They’ve had to make do with subsidiary locations, in other cities.

Another success was chalked up in the reclamation of the Israeli flag, after years in which it flew mainly at right-wing demonstrations. The new and immense popularity of the blue-and-white flag has created a shortage ahead of Independence Day. Schwartz says that the protest leaders were involved in ordering 250,000 new flags from China.

Using quite aggressive methods, the protests have managed to disrupt the agenda of the Netanyahu family. In recent weeks, the prime minster has refrained from appearing at public events, including military ceremonies, which used to provide him with his preferred photo-ops. To its chagrin, the royal couple had to come up with weekly plans for overseas getaways. This is why snap visits to European countries have been concocted, with the invitations seemingly imposed on the polite hosts.

The protest movement has set fire to the ground under the Netanyahu family’s feet, making them feel like persona non grata in the country in which Netanyahu won a resounding election victory less than five months ago. He is surely aware that the national ceremonies marking Israel’s Memorial Day and Independence Day, in less than a month, could well be disrupted by the protests.

Even reaching Ben-Gurion Airport has its own problems. That’s why a ruse was devised last week, in which two helicopters were ordered, a police and a military one, before Netanyahu and wife were scheduled to fly to Italy, in order to deceive protesters who were planning to disrupt his departure from the airport. This greatly irked the Air Force’s helicopter squadron, whose members didn’t know that their commander and a reserves pilot were summoned as decoys for the protesters, while the Netanyahus took off in the police chopper.

An internal Air Force investigation was held, showing that air force headquarters knew nothing about this deception, but had merely acceded to a request for a flight, which came from the prime minister’s military secretary’s office. The Shin Bet force assigned to protect the prime minister was also unaware of the deliberate deceiving of the air force pilots. This leaves the Prime Minister’s Office, specifically his military secretary’s office, as accomplices to this questionable exercise.

The whole issue made Air Force commander Tomer Bar uncomfortable. Only a few days earlier, in view of increasing protests by reserve pilots, he had promised them that he would see to it that the “sanctity of operational orders” would not be compromised, with no extraneous elements allowed in. The commander was referring to future missions, and was not partner to the deception, but as usual, in looking after himself, Netanyahu hurt other people along the way.

Bar was not the only senior officer who had to retract a decision last week, when he overturned the suspension of Col. (res.) Gilad Peled, one of the leaders of the pilots’ protest group. The Air Force commander admitted that he had acted on the basis of unfounded evidence when he thought that Peled was organizing a movement urging reserve pilots to refrain from showing up for duty. Right after that we had the wonderful flip-flop of Police Commissioner Kobi Shabtai, who cut loose from National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and revoked the rushed dismissal of the commander of the Tel Aviv District police force, Maj. Gen. Ami Eshed. The IDF chief of staff, Herzl Halevi, completed the trilogy of cancellations and apologies, retracting a poorly phrased sentence he had used in talking to reservists, from which it appeared that he didn’t see anything wrong in a stable dictatorship.

All three of them were revealed as men of truth, who rose to the occasion after quickly realizing that they had erred. All three have extenuating circumstances. They are truly in uncharted territory. No previous chief of staff, air force commander or police commissioner, including during the Yom Kippur War or the disengagement from Gaza, has experienced anything like this. More importantly, perhaps, is that the three of them, mainly Shabtai, drew a line while standing on the side of probity and reasonable judiciousness. The commissioner even signaled that he would obey the courts in future, if it comes to clashes on principles with the higher echelon he is subordinate to. This is an important statement, in the event that we face a serious constitutional crisis.

Police Commissioner Kobi Shabtai and Tel Aviv district commander Ami Eshed in Tel Aviv last week.Credit: Tomer Appelbaum

People who worked closely with Netanyahu in the past and now see him only on television were shocked to see in recent weeks how pale and tense he looks, almost a shadow of himself. Netanyahu has had his share of panicked appearances over his many terms in office, but he is now trapped in a cul-de-sac, the famed “corrals” described by his predecessor Ariel Sharon. If he accedes to the expectations of a great part of the public and listens to the silently muttered pleas of some Likud lawmakers, he will stop the legislation and save the country from a disaster, but as he sees it, this may bring down the coalition. Justice Minister Yariv Levin may leave and there may be a crisis with the ultra-Orthodox parties, which are pushing for legislation in pursuit of their own interests (Shas with the Dery law and United Torah Judaism with the final emasculation of the draft law).

It’s hard not to draw some satisfaction from the glorious self-immolation the leaders of the two most extreme parties in the coalition, Ben-Gvir and Smotrich, arranged for themselves. The fact that Ben-Gvir turned out to be a joke shouldn’t surprise anyone. But Smotrich also experienced a dramatic crash, first with responses to his call for wiping out Hawara, and then with his bizarre trip to the U.S. The trip exposed the de facto boycott of the Biden administration as well as Smotrich’s stilted English. As written here two months ago, the provincial worldview of these two and their limited contact with the international community come at a cost. It was exacted from both of them this week.

A Haredi bonus

On the margins of the president’s proposal, which received some modest praise from the left, hides a bonus for the ultra-Orthodox. Even without an override clause, Herzog wants to protect the most important element for United Torah Judaism, namely, the passing of a new draft law, which will ensure a legalized evasion by all Haredi youths from serving in the IDF.

After decades of controversy, and the pretense that the IDF has a successful model of partial enlistment of Haredi youth, the rabbis have got their wishes. A secular or religious youth will face a mandatory draft, with a Haredi youth receiving full exemption, with the state guaranteeing him full benefits given to people who do serve. Haredi youths will no longer have to remain locked up in a yeshiva for years, to the chagrin of many rabbis.

Around 200 reservists block an intersection in predominently ultra-Orthodox Bnei Brak near Tel Aviv, shouting “serve in the army.”Credit: Tomer Appelbaum

Some people will say that this is the required solution, for reasons that are not ideological. In the treasury, even before the arrival of Smotrich, there is support for a model which will have Haredi youths studying and working without doing military service. But there is also an opposite process, on the backdrop of the current regime overhaul, which justifiably identifies the exemption for Haredi youths as a cause that brings previously apathetic secular people out on the streets. This was demonstrated on Thursday, with protesting reserve soldiers setting up a symbolic “draft center” in Bnei Brak, an ultra-Orthodox city, clashing for the second consecutive day with Haredi residents.

Dr. Idit Shafran-Gittleman from the Institute of National Security Studies told Haaretz that even though the president’s position is welcomed by many jurists, as part of a necessary compromise, as they see it, it stands in direct contradiction to a strong sentiment prevalent among the protesters. She says that “saving the people’s army, and the tension between those who carry the burden and those who shirk it is one of the main messages of this protest. For now, it seems that the ultra-Orthodox have managed to wear down the political establishment and get their demands, but it’s doubtful that this will be acceptable to protesters.”