[Although this article is four days old I didn’t want you to miss it.]
By Zalman Shoval, Israel Hayom, July 22/13,
Just as in a B movie, the (artificial) tension only broke at the very last minute. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry announced that he had reached an agreement with Israel and the Palestinian Authority, which would serve as a basis for resuming peace talks. American pressure on PA President Mahmoud Abbas, with a little help from the Arab League, did its job, and Kerry went back to Washington satisfied. Still, Kerry is no doubt aware that he still has to overcome, if not the seven gates of hell, then at least a Palestinian steeplechase.
The Palestinians — emboldened by the European Union directive this past week over Israeli economic activities beyond the Green Line — continued to play deceitful games until the last minute, until Kerry signaled that his patience was wearing thin. Despite their forced acquiescence to Kerry’s proposals, the Palestinians haven’t given up on their strategic decision to avoid real negotiations, where they would have to compromise on or renounce critical (to them) issues such as refugees, Jerusalem, borders and recognizing Israel as a Jewish state.
The Palestinian strategy is unwavering and consistent, it’s the tactic that adapts to the circumstances: terror and violence, raising preconditions to begin negotiations, petitioning the U.N. or other international organizations. And now, so as not to come off as refusers and potentially jeopardize their American lifeline, they have apparently accepted Kerry’s proposal, though they’re probably ready to try and distort the agreement down the road.
And it’s not just Kerry who ought to be satisfied. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu should also be pleased with his lot. Netanyahu’s consistent position completely paid off. Negotiations will hit the ground running without preconditions, just as he always demanded. To resume peace talks, our negotiators won’t have to pay “Israeli currency” for Palestinian demands: pre-’67 borders and development beyond the Green Line. Negotiations will start from zero, contrary to former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert’s proposals, which would have had far-reaching consequences. (Abbas rejected those as well, anyway).
Israel truly showed flexibility over the issue of releasing Palestinian prisoners, but not to the extent that the Palestinian Authority had wanted. It’s very possible that Washington, as it has in the past, offered the Palestinians certain assurances, however ambiguous, over some of these issues (maybe this is what Kerry conveyed to Netanyahu in their phone conversation). Still, Israel is not obligated to what was or was not offered. Israel has been operating this whole time at its maximum diplomatic prowess (the government certainly won’t accept the Left’s shallow advice to announce concessions in advance over the issues to prevent “hurting any chance for peace,” or the delusional Right’s preconditions or desire to annex portions of Judea and Samaria).
As far as Kerry has led us to believe, a breakthrough wasn’t achieved. Rather, a narrow window to introductory negotiations was opened. We know that the devil’s in the details (and we’re not just talking about any old details, actually, we’re talking about the issues at the heart of the conflict). The dispute that broke out between the Left and the Right in the Knesset is unnecessary at this point in time. Even if we reach a decisive phase in this peace process, the Green Line won’t be Israel’s eastern border. The political border won’t be demarcated by the Jordan River. (Israel cannot concede its secure position on the eastern front.) Still, it’s way too early to talk about these things. Just as Dennis Ross (Bill Clinton’s former emissary to the Middle East) said, “Nothing’s over until it’s over.” Apparently, it’s very difficult to see how we could achieve a permanent peace in the near future without resolving any of the core issues of contention, such as refugees, borders, Jerusalem, etc. (The claim that “we already know the solution, we just have to decide” is totally baseless.)
If we were to judge the current circumstances, this round of Israeli-Palestinian negotiations, taxiing and ready to take off, could at most yield interim agreements based on timetables, or partial ones based on substance, which would effectively mitigate the incendiary elements of the conflict. But that’s something, too.
NYT: President-Elect Stirs Optimism in Iran and West
Read More
yamit82 Said:
Are you saying there are contingencies to drive them out or contingencies for the intifada. My heart skips a beat 🙂
yamit82 Said:
but why this particular gesture and why beforehand? Someone is extracting blood from the Jews. No people would pay such a price for nothing before anything was done. This demand demonstrates the depth of depravity of those involved: abba, obama and kerry colluded to make the jews engage in depravity. BB is so devoid of a moral compass that he can no longer recognize it as a depraved act. The world will celebrate the capacity of the Jews to engage in depravity. Whatever is to take place there is no justification to do this and what happens if nothing takes place: the devils will gloat with glee and their stooge will do nothing. BB has no red lines for himself.
KGB Operation Barack Obama
Mikhail Kryzhanovsky – 4/25/2012
@ dionissis mitropoulos:
The 2nd intifada caught our stupid Military inteligence and Shabak by surprise. They all bought into the promise of Oslo Peace and considered the Palis our Peace partners eventually producing the results desired. The IDF was not in the territories released to Arafat and we had lost our hands on Intel network in those territories. We didn’t have the Wall then either.
Today we have the wall, The IDF has free rein in all of the territories and Military Intel and the Shabak have rebuilt long since our intelligence network of snitches ( Schtinkers) among the Palis and that includes Palis leaders and politicians who snitch against their own when it suits them.
If a third intifada breaks out it will not go down with the same results as the last one. If they use Gaza type missiles and rockets against the Tel Aviv/ Begurion airport, that could serve as a serious incentive to drive them the Palis out of the territories?
While some of our politicians and military have war and casualty aversion, if forced to confront… there are contingencies for such an event in place.
Releasing the crème de la crème of Palis Terrorists, I have no doubt some of them will become the next leaders of the next intifada. They are the Heroes of the Pali Street and carry a lot of weight. I don’t know how many of them are Hamas yet. There are a few of them so popular they could challenge Abbas for PA/PLO leadership.
Abbas, Obama, Kerry are pressuring the jewish people to commit the gravest of sins. There are many gestures but this evil “gesture” is designed to humiliate and torture the Jewish people. A people who do this act have no moral basis, they are beyond redemption, and cannot be able to live with themselves. The 3 devils and their accomplice wish to demonstrate that the jews are capable of the most perverse and obscene behaviors against their own people and will sell their souls and their people for the smallest of conveniences. This is meant to demonstrate to the world that the jews are not fit to live. It is not an accident, there is no reason that this particular act should be demanded and no reason why it should not be refused. If Israel allows their leaders to proceed with this evil I feel that it will be over for Israel for all will be guilty.
@ bernard ross:
While Bill Clinton saved one Russian “mole” John Deutch, Obama saved 10 (ten) Russian illegal spies, arrested by FBI in June, 2010, sending them back to Russia in 2010 without any investigation – severe blow to American national security and priceless gift.
There is only a single plausible and justifiable excuse for the release of 104 murderers of Jews and that is the coundown to attacking Iran has begun and it’s close. But then much of whatI believe about BB and Obama would be wrong. I would not just be surprised I would be shocked!!
I wouldn’t be shocked to learn that Obama is working for the old KGB either.
my reply 41 to dionissis in moderation, what’s new?
dionissis mitropoulos Said:
I agree.
dionissis mitropoulos Said:
I am not sure an inrifada is a bad thing for Israel. What is needed for Israelis is a change of thinking. If an intifada can create a mindset which allows a ruthless destruction of their enemies then an intifada would be a threat to the enemy rather than the usual threat to israel. No one provokes a sleeping lion for fear he will wake. The only thing protecting the arabs is the Israeli mindset. Israel needs to become the sleeping lion who wakes up.
LtCol Howard Said:
“JEWISH BLOOD IS FORFEIT”
Almost 2000 victims since “Oslo” and thousands of wounded and maimed. Thousands of families destroyed and future generations that will never be.
Stiff necked stupid Jews always have to learn the hard way. We bring our own tragedies on ourselves.
I have never heard BB say the word NO!!! and mean it.
yamit82 Said:
I agree 100%, he has crossed the red line, gone beyond the pale. Whatever he might get cannot justify this release. There must be something that he is being blackmailed for, I see no other reason for it. It is also despicable that US, Obama and Kerry ask this of the Jewish people: it shows their contempt to manipulate israeli leadership to do the most despicable things to the Jewish people. They are all beyond the pale and beyond redemption and deserving of the worst imaginable fate.
Here though is something more that Ross (the diplomat, not Bernard!) said in the video: from 2:45 to 3:45 he justifies Kerry’s pressure for negotiations as good for Israel because the negotiations diffuse the threat of a third intifada.
I think the argument is ridiculous. If there is going to be a third intifada, then it will erupt after unsuccessful negotiations (and we know for sure that the negotiations will fail due to the Pals’ intransigence) because unfulfilled expectations of Israeli suicidal concessions will make the Pal street angry. The negotiations increase the likelihood of an intifada, they don’t decrease it.
honeybee Said:
on the contrary:
LOL, from that statement I appear to have an innate, albeit unconscious, sense of humor.(can’t help myself 🙂 )
@ bernard ross:
Your rational and logical mind must try to explain what is obvious… That Israel gets nothing and BB has caved again just like he has to every significant and insignificant pressure that he has ever faced as a politician.
You forget that BB has a long political history a record if you will and what he is doing now is no different than what he has always done.
Even if you are right on some of your speculations which you are not. Nothing from our POV can justify what he is about to do NOTHING!!!!
I would not tell our sons to join the IDF, risk their lives even sacrificing their lives to capture terrorist murderers. For what? BB has not made a single statement why or how releasing murderers of our people is beneficial to Israel. At least offer to the public some Quid pro quo as a weighted balance for his decision. Nothing!!!!!
There is no rule of Law in Israel everything becomes an expedient in the name of Peace, that magic verbal elixir they drag out when they are about to do something nefarious.
In the name of peace everything is expendable and excused.
“Sound a shophar in Zion; proclaim a fast, call an assembly” Joel
“Beat your plowshares into swords and your pruning hooks into spears; the weak one shall say,” “I am mighty.” Joel
FREE ‘YIGAL AMIR’ NOW!!!!!
yamit82 Said:
I now understand your dislike for bb.
bernard ross Said:
If I wasn’t a Lady or afraid of being banned, what I could do with red herring and weinner. Ross, you have no immagination.
@ yamit82:
Abbas and Obama 104- BB and Israel 0
BB you piece of drek: Where is Pollard?
Our Laws are worthless and American Law is “sacrosanct” ????????
Leaders are empowered and expected to make difficult decisions but BB is no leader nor is he deserving to be Leader of Israel. He is pathetic and represents everything bad about israel and the Jewish People.
If I said what I really wanted to, I would have the Shabak knocking at my door. This government deserves to fall Today and a new one elected.
I want everyone to note the names of the ministers who voted for this abomination.
yamit82 Said:
My gut tells me that there is something he is getting that is unsaid having to do with Iran,an overall arab israeli peace but also to do with the negotiations. Possibilities for specualtion: More of C than expected(E1), no pressure or agreement on refugees,no gaza link,stall on relinquishing sovereignty,re-extension of jordanian citizenship to west bank arabs under a confed,autonomy without land sovereignty or Israeli citizenship,just a stall of handing over C?????….just wondering as to what could be considered an important gain if I assume that he is acting as he sees Israels interests.
yamit82 Said:
how does he legally justify releasing the israeli arabs? Why would a negotiation with a foreign entity require domestic releases? On what basis would release of jewish Israelis be rejected with this precedent for similar crimes? The released arabs should become the victims of violent street muggings from unknown assailants, especially the israeli arabs.
Israeli PM’s appear to operate like authoritarian potentates having no need to answer to the citizens.
@ LtCol Howard:
@ honeybee:
Netanyahu set to free all pre-Oslo prisoners, says ‘it’s for the good of the country’
In public letter, Netanyahu writes that prime ministers are sometimes forced to make difficult and unpopular calls.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Saturday night issued an open letter to the public, bracing Israelis for an extremely “difficult decision” that he was taking in defiance of public opinion but “for the good of the country.”
Netanyahu reportedly agreed to release all 104 pre-Oslo prisoners, including 20 or more Israeli Arab citizens, because the Palestinians made clear to US Secretary of State John Kerry that otherwise they would not come to the scheduled resumption of peace talks in Washington on Tuesday.
Do any doubt any longer that BB will not give up all of Y&S and Jerusalem?????
I think for a Nobel Prize, there is nothing BB would not do. The other alternative is worse. He is Obama’s Puppet and slave.
the release of the terrorists against such a massive popular opposition shows the contempt that the likud/IB govt has for the people of israel. i would not want to send my son to war for a country that does such despicable things.
honeybee Said:
splain please
@ bernard ross:
Bernard, Bernnard, Darlin do you ever proof read? Red herring, what Groucho could have done with that phrase!!!!!!!!!
@ yamit82:
I have a Kestral that has taken over the top blade on the he windmill,from which she hunts for grasshoppers. I also have been watching a red tail [furugenous] hawk eat a rabbit she caught. The Magpies surrouunded her in an attempt to steal it. She ignored them.
She is a large bird and would spread her wings and send them scooting.
@ LtCol Howard:
Thank you for this tradic information. Once again, your contributions are much appreciated.
I received this article from a military associate. It was written by a mother of an IDF soldier who was kidnapped and murdered by Palestinian terrorists who were Israeli citizens. His murderers would be part of the Israeli “terrorist release goodwill gesture”.
According to figures from the Prime Minister’s Office Israel has freed 6,912 terrorists between 1993 and 1999. It freed thousands more between 2003 and 2008 as part of various “gestures.” Unfortunately their release was seen as a victory by the terrorists which promoted the recruiting of additional terrorists and a major proportion of them went back directly to committing terror.
Almagor, an advocacy group for bereaved families, requested that the ministers meet with them to allow them to try to persuade them, with their own personal stories, to vote against the prisoners’ release.
None of the ministers were willing to meet them. Uzi Landau and Meir Cohen (Yesh Atid), encouraged them by vowing to vote nay. The other ministers said they “are familiar with the topic.”
Dr. xxxxxxxx
I urge that you share this with your more liberal friends.:{MICHAEL BERENBAUM , Brant Rosen , rabbi steven silver , RABBI JOHN ROSOVE , Rabbi David Wolpe , RABBI DAN MOSKOWITZ <dmoskovitz@templejudea.com, JESSICA TOURTELOT , davids@jewishjournal.com, DAVID SUISSA , alan@jstreet.org, susanf@jewishjournal.com, SHMUEL ROSNER ROSNER , Rob Eshman
Remind them that the American experience and the Israeli experience with the released terrorists is identical. A major proportion of them go back directly to committing terror. And, possibly worse, their release is seen as a victory by the terrorists which promotes recruiting of additional terrorists.
John
JEWISH BLOOD IS NOT FORFEIT
Galia Tamam 7-26-13
My son Moshe was born in the month of Sivan. A line in a poem by Dudu Barak says, “The children of Sivan were born when the sun was shining; the world in white, laughed in joy and delight,” and this is exactly how I felt when he was born, my third child.
Moshe enlisted in the army’s combat Engineering Corps, serving the state of Israel dutifully while risking his life to clear land mines. But the sun set on us and our world was destroyed in August 1984, when Moshe was late coming home on leave one weekend. Happiness and pleasure vanished from our hearts and minds when we were given the worst news — Moshe was abducted and murdered by vile terrorists, Arabs with Israeli citizenship from Baqa al-Gharbiyye. He was just 19 years old.
On one summer’s day our lives changed and a black cloud has followed over us ever since. This was the day they told me I no longer have a son! My handsome, smiling boy, a fighter in the Engineering Corps, who survived the Lebanon War, was kidnapped and murdered on his way home. While he was waiting for a bus at Beit Lid junction, in the heart of Israel, he was taken by murderous terrorists, residents of Israel, who took him with the intention of transferring him to Syria. When their plan failed, they shot him at point blank range and dumped his body in an olive orchard outside the village of Mevo Dotan in Judea and Samria. From the moment I heard of the plan to release Moshe’s killers I haven’t found a moment’s peace.
What message are our leaders sending to us bereaved families? That the blood of our sons is forfeit? What message is being sent to Israeli soldiers and their families? Do we not have the right to know that our children’s murderers will never again see the light of day? Why is no one in this country, and justifiably so, suggesting to release the murderer of former Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin? Because in the Jewish state, Jewish blood is not forfeit! All murderers must be made to know that their future consists only of rotting in prison for the rest of days.
We cannot allow their release, which will only encourage more terrorism. Just like my son’s life was taken from him, so will the freedom of his killers be taken from them! Who can guarantee that even if they are released, they will not kill any more Jews?
Galia Tamam is the mother of Moshe Tamam, who was murdered by terrorists in 1984.
bernard ross Said:
All low budget stuff. Don’t need all that much the Bedouins are already there and have been cleaning up in the smuggling business for generations.
yamit82 Said:
this is interesting. If it is all spontaneous and uncontrolled then it is true. If it is GCC controlled i expect the jihdis will move on hezbullah and Iraq next and after then Iran. However, if it is controlled but does not play out as the GCC wants(inc Israel) then they might turn on israel. In my view all this cannot be happening without money and that money is GCC.
yamit82 Said:
I am wondering if the sinai situation is not funded by Iran. there are always new names but the money calls the shots. BTW I suspected that Israels gaza targetings may have been on Iranian tied hamas operatives and may even have been done in cooperation with meshaal and the Qatar/GCC to wean gaza from iran.
yamit82 Said:
I expect the US and even israel to protect Jordan.
yamit82 Said:
can’t tell what you are referring to?
yamit82 Said:
I think the most important point is the relationship between the GCC and the US, the GCC, especially the sauds, are heavily invested in the west. I beleive there is no space between them and the US even when appearances say otherwise. They are working closely together. I beleive the same is true on egypt, I am not sure that Obama is on a different page from them. It may be that they can do what he cannot do, as usual, and this is a big part of the relationship(they have no law or constraints). (the chinese invest in US debt but they dont make oil profits.)
yamit82 Said:
Don’t you remember I have been saying for a long time that a sign that the purpose of the syria war is a GCC operation against Iran and to weaken her proxies, would be if the jihadis next turn on hexbullah instead of Israel. A further sign would be if they next turn on Iraq and then Iran along with the Kurds who left Turkey. I said that if my suspicions were correct then I expect them all to combine to destabilize Iran. I have even considered the notion that the weakening of hezbullah, Syria and hamas by the GCC might also be meant as an inducement for Israel to go along or even attack iran by reducing the effect of the Iran proxies blowback on Israel later. So far there is success in weakening of hezbullah, syria and the leashing of hamas. Russia is the fly in the ointment. However, there is the possibility of all the jihadis combining, inc Irans proxies, against israel depending on the progression of things. If the GCC fails they might switch agenda. If they are controlled by GCC I do not think the jihadis will go for jordan.
yamit82 Said:
I forget? I don’t think you have been reading my posts the last few months. I have been saying that for months. However,I see the sunni shia war as the vehicle for The GCC war against Iran. More of a tribal turf war exploiting, and invoking, the sunni shia conflict; which brings the mercenaries. I believe the syrian war was from the beginning funded and directed by the saud/qatar and that the “rebel democratic forces” were activated as a fig leaf to cover their aims to bring in all their jihadi mercenaries; back when Max was talking about the democratic rebels and said I was a crazy conspiracy theorist for saying the Sauds,qatar,US were cooperating. I don’t think any one any longer denies the Jihadis are armed and paid by the GCC(saud,qatar).
yamit82 Said:
you agree that they arm and fund the jihadis against assad because of Iran. I haven’t bought the narrative that saud is afraid of AQ and MB. How can they be afraid of what they have operated and funded for years, both MB and AQ. I think that is another red herring they invented. there is a lot more evidence for decades linking Saudi/AQ/MB going back to 80’s. Look at the network interconnections in just the abudin article I just posted re saudi/MB/AQ. The only jihadis the saudis and GCC worry about are those funded by Iran. Once we accept that Saudi and qatar are, and have been, funding and arming the Jihadis it makes no sense that they would oppose egyptian jihadis going to war there. This can be a convenient story for the army to get street support. I am thinking that the army MOrsi/MB fight is more about power and money than Islam. Morsi was usurping the army’s turf. The fact that the sauds and GCC so quickly support the army and Al sisi is interesting. obviously they can cooperate. The egyptian salafi have no problem supporting the army.
bernard ross Said:
Saudis fund the infrastructure worldwide wide for the spread of Islam and the promotion of Sharia.
Saudis have a long history of funding their enemies as a protective measure for themselves. Seems to have worked till now.
Since 2000 the Saudi family has expanded and there are thousands more little princes and princesses to support in Luxury.
Very few Saudis actually work or hold jobs and the Saudis Government supports them.
Saudis unlike the Chinese recycle oil money by investing in American assets like Fox News and thousands of other American corporate assets.
Re” Qatar funding Hamas. No brainer that Sunni Hamas would rather align and be supported by Sunni Qatar who they hate but they hate the Shia more but if no choice they will return to the Iranians or anyone else who would fund their entity. The Americans Europeans, Turks, Japanese and Israelis fund them more than Qatar. Don’t forget the UN contribution as well. They are not hard up for cash, I believe unlike the PLO/PA Kleptocracy, they are known for their modesty and honesty.
@ bernard ross:
The bird was cleared they couldn’t find any microchips on the bird
bernard ross Said:
A- the speed his polling numbers are dropping he will be out of it in a month.
B- he is solidly in the Clinton camp. His wife was H ROTTEN CLINTON’S…. (fill in the blank)
not needed the Republicans are doing it just fine.
@ bernard ross:
What’s your point?
bernard ross Said:
That’s your take on the situation. The Saudis are against Assad because of Iran but they are as fearful of the Jihadists (MB and Al-Qaeda). Those two groups have eliminated most of the free anti Assad rebels who began the rebellion against Assad and now reports are coming-in that many of the Syrian Army deserters are coming back to Assad under an Amnesty agreement. There are also reports that radical Jihadists are swarming into Syria from all over the world including some from the States. You forget that this has become a Sunni-Shia conflict in the Muslim world and alliances are shifting and forming around that conflict.
Russians coming down in support of the Shia and Obama and Europe in support of the Sunni Jihadists. I think the Saudis are caught between a rock and a hard place. They and Qatar have serious problems no matter who wins. Same goes for Israel. I don’t believe Obama has our back either but is holding a knife to stab us in the back at any opportunity even when it would be harmful to American interests.
Do you for a nano-second believe that those Islamic fighters against Assad will not eventually get to Hezbollah in Lebanon and Jordan. Do you believe if Assad survives he will not try to take revenge against Jordan? The militant genie is out of the bottle and I can’t see who is capable of putting them back in and corking it. Enter at some point Hamas to expand in Y&S and Jordan. It’s a matter of time. So far they are bottled up in Gaza but things can change.
Notice that America and Europe are silent with Egypt closing the border with Gaza and restricting Gazan fishing off shore and off the Egyptian coast as far as El Arish. Israel is quiet about it as well, I suppose not to upset or interfere with the Egyptian operation against Hamas and others in Sinai.
http://www.thedailysheeple.com/the-mysterious-new-owner-of-blackwater-worldwide_072013#sthash.zApWqTR5.dpuf
weiner may be running as a red herring to capture the news and divert from Obamas massive coverups
Turkish clown show 🙂
Turkey detains, frees bird accused of spying for Israel
http://www.jpost.com/Breaking-News/Turkey-detains-frees-bird-accused-of-spying-for-Israel-321165
yamit82 Said:
Why would the saudis be opposed when they and qatar have been funding and sending jihadis to do just that. Morsi’s downfall might have less to do with ideologies than being a team player. the army has been in charge of and beneficiary of the economy for decades, I would not be surprised if he was pulling an erdogan to stiff them out of their money.
yamit82 Said:
I read, forgot where, that many tunnels were not closed but rather the houses were visited on the egyptian side were visited and the owners told to cease operations. dont know if true.
yamit82 Said:
What Unity plans? In my view hamas is on the GCC leash now whether it be through qatar, Saudi, emirates or Egyptian army. Where does Meshaal live?
Please read the following from aaron klein, the devil is in the details further down related to the MB and saudi connections; I am not referring to Huma and her connections alone but mainly the rest of the network connections to saudi and the interconnecting relations between all.
THE EXPLOSIVE SECRET HUMA IS HIDING
Media ignore radical ties of wife standing by her man AARON KLEIN
http://www.wnd.com/2013/07/the-explosive-secret-huma-is-hiding/#AodStP3pbhWskWWR.99
they are all interconnected. the network is massive, global and funded by the oil consumers. when there is a price rise much of the money goes to jihad. I beleive that oil was about 13 per barrel in the 90’s and now over 100. what do they do with all that extra cash we give them?
My last comment got spammed
@ bernard ross:
@ NormanF:
BB is gambling on the success of the Egyptian Army to suppress the Islamists in Sinai. I think it’s a suckers bet. Tens of thousands of Muslim radical fighters are entering Syria against Assad and Iran’s proxy Hezbollah. Hundreds of Hezbollah fighters are now enjoying their 72 virgins and more to follow. Once the Syrian front stabilizes many will head for Sinai. Depends which faction comes out on top in Egypt.
Historically in such cases of internecine Arab conflicts or threats of such conflicts they go to war against each other or turn against Israel.
This is not the most precipitous time for Israel to be talking peace with the Palis and making concessions, Any concessions. Now more than at any time in the past they come back to bite us in the ass.
@ bernard ross:
@ NormanF:
Deposed Egyptian President Morsi held for conspiring with Hamas, murder, kidnapping
http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Deposed-Egyptian-President-Morsi-held-for-conspiring-with-Hamas-murder-kidnapping-321144
The army has threatened to “turn its guns” on those who use violence. The Brotherhood warned of civil war. “Confrontation appeared inevitable following a month of clashes in which close to 200 people, mainly supporters of Morsi, have been killed. Many people in the Arab world’s most populous country feared the worst.”
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Obama and his advisers not Happy campers::
If the Egyptian army clamps down on the Brotherhood it will only strengthen them and this time after they had finally gained power. They will fight to the death to regain it. Putting a million people out on the streets to demonstrate any issue in Cairo is meaningless. The majority support the MB and Cairo is a city of upwards of 25 million people mostly poor and members of MB. Most of the Army supports the MB and they could revolt against SISI, if he turns the army loose on the street. Morsi was reported to have been on the verge of sending in some Egyptian forces to topple Assad. The saudis opposed so the Army opposed. The Americans were in favor. SISI a devout Muslim was appointed by Morsi.
The future of the Palis depend on the outcome of the Egyptian power struggle. If the MB regains power,Hamas has a major backer. If the MB loses Hamas is weakened and may return to Iran for backing. How your unity plans come together is questionable due to the unknown X factor being Hamas. Hamas I still believe can topple whenever they choose Abbas and Fatah even the Jordanian monarchy.
I see no way back for the Egyptian economy and this military government will not last against both the failed econmy and the MB.
Apparently Israel is supporting the military government in their mini war against Hamas and the radical Bedouins in the Sinai. In 1 week they managed to close most of the Hamas clans tunnels after years of Mubarak claiming he didn’t have the power to do so.
NormanF Said:
It is possible that a stalling of any real agreement is Israel s best path to get the most of area C. If Israel can stay in C for another number of years and keep the pals pacified then perhaps more Israelis will want more of C and more pals will be used to not having it. It might not be unwise to give some areas of C close to pal dense areas for their expansions in order to keep their growth close rather than all over C. By not having a formal agreement the sovereignty of all areas of YS is postponed. Autonomy and sovereignty are 2 different things and if final sovereignty is postponed to final agreements there are some possibilities. E.G. if an interim agreement of autonomy for AB and some C, plus a confed with jordan there may be possibilities of population reduction of YS arab cities if over time Jordan opens more to their immigration. This could still allow for a total future annexation of all YS. This is probably too much to hope for as just getting most of C appears impossible according to appearances. Also, over time there can be a subsidence of pressure on Israel to give up C. It appears to me that an interim situation which retains most of c and postpones sovereignty agreement over all of YS is the most that can be hoped for at present, for that to occur I can understand the logic of giving small amounts of C over as A or B. I expect all AB to become A soon. Also, in the event of a unilateral withdrawal like gaza they would want to retain a good portion of C.
further to my last post: It might suit all to not forge an agreement on borders, refugees,area C etc now as none can weather the vicissitudes of an agreement. Israel may give some of C now that they believe is inevitable to improve pal economy and make Abbas appear to be getting something. From abbas point of view he must show some gain to stay in power but cannot agree to make concessions on crucial issues(refugees, recognition of jewish state, no jerusalem, no formal link to gaza). Therefore all realize that no agreement is best but they will develop a way forward which may not be as things appear. PA must continue to appear to be in opposition to Israel to stay in power. Therefore, Abbas will keep getting something along the way. If they get A,B and parts of C now plus other goodies I think that Israel hopes to get more later by facilitating pal development in close to existing pal dense areas even if they give some of C now to accomplish it(eg the pal city)If we see a move towards increased participation with Jordan then I believe there may be no agreement with PA but rather an agreement within the existing jordan israel treaty re security. This would allow the PA to continue to appear as rebels and their leaders to remain alive. Israel may decide to withdraw unilaterally from a & b plus parts of c with the rest of c held for future negotiations. israel might hope that over time possession of more of C will become de facto through non agreement. that a pal state and Israel in a territorial dispute will be resolved like all other such disputes: a lot of noise but the longer you control it the more likely you will keep it. In this scenario it is possible that BB believes that considering that Israelis will give away C without much thought perhaps down the line more of it will be able to be retained by the passage of time and increased Jewish settlement. A Pal confed with Jordan would end arguments re a viable, contiguous pal state as arguments for more of area C. I think that only the US and EU are seeking “progress” right now. I think that even the GCC wants a lower profile pal situation which develops under their “guidance”.
Zalman Shoval is wrong on two points –
First, subverting justice by releasing baby killers and mass murderers from Israeli prisons will never lead to peace!
Second, that is already paying in Israeli currency (and in future Jewish lives) a high (and ethically and morally repugnant) price for the privilege of sitting down with the Arabs in the same room! I do not count it as an achievement that the Jewish State should be proud of.
The last thing to be mentioned is the Arabs have no real interest in peace with Israel. It simply isn’t going to happen no matter what Israel may offer to them. And Abu Bluff’s PA does not have a democratic mandate from his own people to make peace and he does not speak for Hamas, which rejects outright peace talks and making peace with Israel.
Given all of this, the talks are going to be fruitless! Even Shoval concedes any permanent agreement between the Arabs and Israel that finally ends the conflict is not in the cards. The big mystery is why Netanyahu is wont to pursue a process that offers no real tangible benefit for Israel.
I dont beleive that anyone: hamas, pa, Israel, Jordan, GCC wants any agreement right now. Any change in the current situation brings too many complications especially for hamas and PA regarding elections, etc. I think it is all a show to show the obama admin and kerry are doing something. at best I think there will be an attempt to improve econommic conditions for the pals to try and keep their street happy and the incumbents in power in both gaza and PA. Area C is to be watched for changes: some will go now to Pals possibly to postpone other going later.