America must plan for Israel’s likely 2024 war with Hezbollah

by Dr. Eric R. Mandel, THE HILL

The U.S. is ramping up pressure on Israel to end the Israel-Hamas war. But is our country ready for the next phase?

I am not speaking about the inevitable reappearance of Hamas terrorist cells in Gaza or an escalation of Hamas’s activities in the West Bank, but about Israel’s war with Iranian proxy Hezbollah in the north.

The war in the south is just one phase of the battle of annihilation, jihad against Israel, orchestrated by Tehran.

President Biden may have been able to restrain Israel from a pre-emptive strike on Hezbollah in exchange for latitude in its operations in Gaza, but the time for dealing with Hezbollah will be at hand in early 2024. It is in our interest to prepare and strategize with Israel before that war erupts.

No matter how much the Biden administration wants Israel to return to the status quo in the North before Oct. 7, Israelis across the political spectrum are resolute against returning to a reality of a terrorist entity, stronger than Hamas, sitting just meters away from its civilian population.

Israel’s national security advisor, Tzachi Hanegbi, said that “the threat of a Lebanese terror group capable of an Oct. 7-style massacre of civilians cannot be tolerated.” Israel has been “making clear to the Americans that we are not interested in war [in the north], but we will have no alternative but to impose a new reality” if Hezbollah remains a threat.

Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s secretary-general, has never wavered from his desire to wipe out Israel. “The only solution is to destroy it without allowing it to surrender…the elimination of Israel is not only a Palestinian interest. It is the interest of the entire Muslim world.”

After the 2006 Second Lebanon War, the UN Security Council unanimously approved Resolution 1701, demanding that Hezbollah disarm and move north of the Litani River, approximately 20 miles (30 kilometers) north of the Lebanese-Israeli border. Even the Chinese and Russians voted for the resolution. But unfortunately, the impotent UN forces sent to implement it never fulfilled their mandate.

Today, hundreds of thousands of Israelis living near the Lebanese border are in constant fear of Hezbollah, which could perpetrate an even greater massacre and hostage-taking than Hamas. Sixty thousand Israelis have already been evacuated and are unwilling to return to their homes with Hezbollah within eyesight.

I have visited the sophisticated Hezbollah tunnels — one of them more than 20 stories underground, exiting inside Israel next to border communities. Hezbollah likely has many tunnels that remain undetected because, like their strategic ally Hamas, they have learned to end tunnels just before the border fence. This would allow them to facilitate the entry of hundreds of terrorists into Israel within minutes, a surprise attack from multiple locations causing widespread terror on a far greater scale than what occurred on Oct. 7.

When Biden sent an additional carrier group to the region, that signaled a compelling warning to Tehran to rein in Hezbollah. Still, sooner or later, however, that carrier group will move on to other troubled areas, and instability will reign.

To believe that Israel can return to the days before Oct. 7 is a dangerous miscalculation. Israelis in the north, just like those in the south, cannot return if a terrorist entity is on the other side of the border. Unlike in the West Bank, the borders with Lebanon and Gaza are internationally recognized boundaries.

CONTINUE

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December 14, 2023 | 1 Comment »

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  1. The problem with the author’s viewpoint is that the US.gov does not want to weaken Iran, this government has done everything possible to strengthen Iran. Also the calling an additional carrier group to the region might have signaled that the US was intent on stopping Iran/Hezbollah from attacking Israel, or it might have signaled to Israel that the US is intent upon stopping Israel from attacking Hezbollah or Iran.

    My bet is on the latter interpretation.

    The US will not be a partner with Israel in weakening Iran. The US government is trying to weaken Israel.

    Articles like this might actually be part of the information war, in which the US government poses as friendly to Israel while behind Israel’s back the US government undermines and weakens Israel at every turn.