After Syria Debacle, Congress Must Act for Kurdish Region of Iraq

by Seth J. Frantzman and Dr. Eric R. Mandel, MEPIN

After training almost 100,000 members of the Syrian Democratic Forces in eastern Syria the US suddenly announced a withdrawal, without a road map to stability.

In 2016, Donald Trump excoriated the withdrawal of American forces from Iraq in 2011 after the successful American surge in Iraq under President George W. Bush had stabilized the country. He blamed the US withdrawal for the rise of Islamic State (ISIS). His analysis was correct, that the American withdrawal led to the rise of sectarian violence, particularly at the hands of Iraqi Shi’ite strongman Nouri al-Maliki. ISIS was able to gain a greater foothold as a result.

The October 6 decision by the White House to abandon and betray America’s partners in northern Syria, our best fighting partner against ISIS, is inappropriate on so many levels. When was it ever in American interests to empower Iran, Russia, Syria’s regime, or Turkish-backed extremists, leaving America looking like a paper tiger, and an unreliable ally? After training almost 100,000 members of the Syrian Democratic Forces in eastern Syria the US suddenly announced a withdrawal, without a road map to stability or even acknowledgement of the important the SDF played in the defeat of ISIS. The SDF, being bombed by Turkey which accused them of being linked to the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) and suffering attacks from extremists, signed a deal with the Syrian regime on October 13.
Now, while Syrian Kurds fear ethnic cleansing and the loss of their freedom, pushed through no fault of their own into the arms of the Syrians, Russians and Iranian militias, Congress has to act now to protect our even more important Kurdish allies in norther Iraq, or Iran will sense weakness and seek to exploit America’s perceived retreat.
The Kurdistan Region of Iraq is an autonomous region under Iraq’s 2005 constitution that the US supported after the 2003 defeat of Saddam Hussein. For decades the Kurdish leadership in the Kurdistan Regional Government capital of Erbil has been close to the US and has created a region that is stable and prosperous. They were key allies against ISIS and the US has supported their armed forces, called Peshmerga, through training and budgetary assistance.
However in recent years the Kurdistan region has been sandwiched between a rising Iran and questions about US policy in Iraq and Syria. When the US decided to leave Syria it became clear that the Kurdistan region of Iraq could also be threatened. Unlike the US partnership with the SDF, the US relationship with the Kurdistan Region of Iraq is one of two governments, because the KRG is an autonomous region under the Iraqi constitution, akin to Scotland or Quebec. While there were critics of the US partnership with the SDF, critically Turkey, there is no criticism of the US work with the KRG. That is why it is essential now to shore up support for Kurdish allies in Iraq and make sure they understand that the US is standing behind them. Uncertainty in the Middle East leads to US enemies trying exploit division and pry away US allies.
Washington cannot allow another retreat from the region after the collapse of eastern Syria. Northern Iraq is now the hinge, a strategic key, to the border areas of Iran, Turkey, Syria and Iraq. Iran must not be allowed to consume Iraq and Syria like an octopus. It is time for Congress to move fast and make clear the Kurdistan region is a key ally. That means support for security and the economy of the region. It means supporting the Kurdish region which hosts Yazidis and has large numbers of Christians. It means support for reconstruction and enabling the region to spread its wings at this key moment when US allies and interests appear under siege. An invite to the Kurdistan Regional president Nechirvan Barzani would be a good message from the US that the region is important. Listening to Erbil’s concerns is also important.
In other areas of Iraq protesters are being shot down by Iranian-backed militias. Not so in the Kurdistan region, an island of stability. But as we saw with eastern Syria, an island of stability can be threatened. The US needs to do the right thing and Congress has the tools to make that happen.
Seth J. Frantzman is the author of ‘After ISIS: America, Iran and the Struggle for the Middle East,’ and Oped Editor of The Jerusalem Post. Eric R Mandel is the director of MEPIN, the Middle East Political Information Network, and regularly briefs members of the Senate, House and their foreign policy advisers.
October 15, 2019 | 2 Comments »

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  1. This important article in military.com suggests that the U.S. military was not in fact as opposed to Trump’s withdrawal decision as the MSM in the U.S. and Israel claim. It also suggests that the Pentagon believes that Erdogan’s forces are “demoralized” by the mass dismissals of officers, and are unable to carry out their mission in Syria successfully. The author of the article, a Mr. Sisk, goes so far as to suggest that the military may attempt another coup against Erdogan rather than remaining in Syria.

    Sisk points out that the U.S. military withdrew intelligence support for Turkey’s Air Force before the Turkish forces began theiir invasion. And senior U.S. army officers allegedly believe that the Turkish operation cannot succeed without this U.S. intelligence support.

    It looks to me like the Pentagon’s game plan is for the Kurds to defeat Erdogan, followed by the Turkish military overthrowing him and replacing him with a pro-Western, pro-American government, thereby saving the U.S. military alliance with Turkey. They decided, with Trump’s approval, to give Erdogan enough roap to hang himself. Have no idea if this strategy will work. But it is certainly a strategy. Trump and his advisors are not as clueless Frantzman thinks.

    Pentagon Claims Leaders Knew of Trump’s Plan to Withdraw from Northern Syria
    8 Oct 2019
    Military.com | By Richard Sisk
    Pentagon officials are refuting reports that top brass were kept out of the loop on President Donald Trump’s plans to withdraw U.S. troops from Syria.

    As Turkish troops and armor massed on the Syrian border Tuesday, officials released a statement disputed charges that Defense Secretary Mark Esper, new Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley and other top leaders were blindsided by Trump’s order and the Turkish threat of an imminent invasion.

    “Esper and Chairman Milley were consulted over the last several days by the president regarding the situation and efforts to protect U.S. forces in northern Syria in the face of military action by Turkey,” Pentagon Chief Spokesman Jonathan Hoffman said.

    “Unfortunately, Turkey has chosen to act unilaterally. As a result, we have moved the U.S. forces in northern Syria out of the path of potential Turkish incursion to ensure their safety.”

    Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has threatened several times before to invade northeastern Turkey, only to back off, but there is a growing sense within the U.S. military that this time he means it, as evidenced by the withdrawal from the region of about 50 U.S. troops to avoid a potential clash with the Turks.

    “All preparations for a possible military operation into northeastern Syria are completed,” the Turkish Defense Ministry said in a Twitter post. “Establishment of a safe zone is essential to contribute to stability and peace of the region and for Syrians to live in safety.”

    Analysts, however, question the motives for the operation and the ability of the Turkish military to conduct it.

    When and if the invasion occurs, Turkish ground forces would have to maneuver with limited air cover. The U.S. military has removed Turkey from access to the air tasking orders of the Combined Air Operations Center for the anti-ISIS coalition, blocking Turkey from surveillance intelligence.

    “If you’re not on the air tasking order, it’s really hard to coordinate flights in that area,” said Lt. Col. Carla Gleason, a Pentagon spokeswoman.

    The general command of the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces, who have borne the brunt of the fight against ISIS, charged that the U.S. withdrawal from northeastern Syria, and Trump’s renewal of his intention to withdraw all U.S. troops from Syria, amounted to a “stab in the back” to a loyal ally.

    Erdogan and other Turkish officials have stated that their plan is to send troops into northeastern Syria east of the Euphrates River and set up a safe zone 20 miles deep and 300 miles wide to the Iraqi border. The intent of this planned act is to punish the SDF, protect Turkey from attack and allow Syrian refugees to return.

    Two Middle East analysts questioned Erdogan’s motives and the ability of the Turkish military to carry out the plan.

    “There’s a lot of reticence to test the proposition that the Turkish military is capable of carrying this out,” said Eric Edelman, former ambassador to Turkey and undersecretary for Policy at the Defense Department.

    He pointed to the U.S. move to limit Turkish air cover and also cited the 2016 coup attempt in which rogue elements of Turkey’s military bombed parliament.

    In a conference call with reporters sponsored by the Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA), Edelman said the subsequent purge of the officer ranks left the Turkish military demoralized and short of pilots. “It’s a very damaged institution,” Edelman said of the Turkish military.

    In the same conference call, Alan Makovsky, a senior fellow for National Security and International Policy at the Center for American Progress, said Erdogan’s claims of protecting Turkey from cross-border attacks by the SDF were spurious.

    “The YPG has not attacked Turkey across the border,” Makovsky said, referring to the Kurdish People’s Protection Units that make up the main fighting force of the SDF.

    Erdogan’s real purpose is to force many of the estimated 3.6 million refugees from Syria’s civil war now living in Turkey to move to the safe zone in northeastern Syria that his military would create, Makovsky said.

    “He’d like to get rid of those refugees,” Makovsky said.

    — Richard Sisk can be reached at Richard.Sisk@Military.com.