Nasrallah’s Elimination, Plus Damage to Hezbollah’s Leadership and Operational Capabilities, Marks a Potential Turning Point in the Middle East
Yossi Kupperwasser | MEF | October 7, 2024
At the strategic level, Hassan Nasrallah’s elimination and the series of other actions represent the ultimate expression of the change in the war’s trend. Shutterstock
The elimination of Hassan Nasrallah, coupled with the damage to Hezbollah’s leadership structure and operational capabilities, marks a potential turning point in the Middle East. The IDF’s ground operation in southern Lebanon, the second attack in Yemen, and Israel’s success in withstanding two massive Iranian missile attacks demonstrate Israel’s brilliant intelligence and operational achievements. These events shake the entire Middle East and create potential for fundamental change. The nature and intensity of this change will depend significantly on Israel’s actions, as well as on United States and Iranian policies.
Hezbollah finds itself confused and battered, the price it paid for Nasrallah’s insistence on maintaining support for Hamas. Despite the blows it has suffered since the beeper attack, the organization does not intend to learn its lesson at this stage. It is unlikely to agree to disconnect the Lebanese front from the Gaza front, enter a ceasefire, or allow northern residents to return safely to their homes. Instead, Hezbollah will likely attempt to avenge the blow it suffered, in the spirit of its charismatic leader’s legacy and testament.
Hezbollah’s lack of preparation for the new reality will make it difficult for the organization to function effectively. It did not conceive of this situation until two weeks ago and has since repressed the significance of the change in Israel’s policy. The organization has failed to draw lessons from Israel’s successive strikes against it. This will increase Hezbollah’s dependence on Iran, which will be forced to focus on its rehabilitation.
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