Security Recommendations from Four Days Before October 7

Peloni:  It is hard to look back at how removed from reality everything was before October 7, but not as hard as it is to grasp that many are still trying to find a way back to being removed from reality once again.

Jonathan D. Halevi | X | Feb 25, 2025

Four Days Before the October 7 Attack – Security Officials’ Recommendation to the Government: Reducing “Civil Measures” in the Gaza Strip “Harms Israel’s Strategic Interest”; It Is Recommended to Approve Additional Economic Easing, Including Increasing the Number of Workers from Gaza Allowed to Work in Israel

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Below is a report by Moriah Asraf, the diplomatic correspondent of Channel 13, on October 3, 2023:

Hila Korach:

“And throughout this time, negotiations between Israel and Saudi Arabia continue. Moriah Asraf, our diplomatic correspondent, as we first reported here on the news, U.S. Secretary of State [Tony] Blinken is expected to arrive. When will this happen?”

Moriah Asraf:

*”It will happen in mid-October. That is the expected date. He is arriving, as mentioned, in light of the advanced negotiations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, with the Americans, of course, being the ones leading these talks. This visit is expected to focus mainly on the Saudi issue, though other topics and aspects will also be discussed. Blinken will not only meet with Israeli officials; he is coming for a broader regional visit, including, of course, the Palestinian Authority. Shortly thereafter, Defense Minister [Yoav] Gallant is also expected to travel to Washington, where the Saudi issue will also be at the heart of discussions during his visit.

“Now, earlier this week, a discussion was held at the Prime Minister’s office [Benjamin Netanyahu] regarding the various tensions across different fronts, with the Saudi issue also present in the room. All officials, both from the security establishment and the diplomatic sphere, stated: ‘We do not want to escalate tensions on any front unless absolutely necessary at this time, so as not to harm the ongoing negotiations.’

“Security officials told the Prime Minister that further civilian easing measures should be implemented for Gaza. The Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories [Major General Ghassan Alian] told the Prime Minister the following: ‘From a Palestinian perspective, in recent months, there has been a decline in civilian measures for Gaza. Ultimately, this harms Israel’s strategic interest. Our leverage over Hamas is also being undermined.’ These were the words of the Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories to the Prime Minister. The recommendation from security officials, both in preparation for the senior American official’s visit and in general, was to ease restrictions further in Gaza, including increasing the number of workers allowed entry, as well as other measures. This was the message conveyed to the Prime Minister at the beginning of the week.”*

Source: https://tinyurl.com/53yz22kz

Key Milestones in Hamas’ Preparations for the October 7 Attack vs. the Assessment of the Defense Minister, IDF, and Intelligence Directorate
May 20, 2021

“In a cabinet discussion, all professional and security bodies recommended ending Operation Guardian of the Walls and agreeing to a ceasefire… According to these officials, ‘Hamas is currently deterred and has suffered heavy blows. The denial of its capabilities is significant.’”

May 30, 2021

At a ceremony commemorating the casualties of the “Sword of Jerusalem” campaign held in northern Gaza on May 30, 2021, the event’s host introduced the fighting forces of the Al-Qassam Brigades and stated that, “With Allah’s approval, there will be military operations beyond [enemy] lines. We will raid them by land, air, and sea, from above ground and below it.”

Fathi Hamad, a member of Hamas’ political bureau, said in his speech at the ceremony that the “Sword of Jerusalem” campaign was preparation for the next war, which would be the decisive battle against Israel, in which Palestinian forces would invade its territory, liberate Palestine, and massacre Jews. Hamad stated that the Al-Qassam Brigades were preparing for this campaign through military training, military buildup, and recruitment of operatives.

September 30, 2021

The “Promise of the Hereafter” conference, held in Gaza under the sponsorship of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar and attended by senior Hamas officials and other organizations, was a key milestone in ideological preparation for the campaign to liberate Palestine.

Participants discussed preparations for the future governance of the State of Palestine in various areas after its “liberation” from Israel, which they anticipated would cease to exist. In a speech read on his behalf by Hamas political bureau member Kamal Abu Aoun, Sinwar stated, “The liberation and return to Palestine is now closer than ever.”

At the end of the conference, participants published a list of “action plans for the process of liberating Palestine” after Israel ceases to exist.

December 26, 2021

Hamas conducted its annual military exercise simulating a ground invasion of Israeli territory, the conquest of IDF bases and Israeli communities, and the abduction of soldiers and civilians.

February 2022

The Hamas leadership decided to accelerate preparations for a ground attack against Israel and implement a strategic deception plan, centered on sending messages intended to convince Israel that the combination of the “stick” (threat of assassinating senior Hamas officials) and the “carrot” (economic easing measures for Gaza) was achieving its goal, successfully restraining Hamas and preventing military confrontation.

April 28, 2022

Brigadier General Amit Saar, head of the Research Division in the Intelligence Directorate:
“Hamas is deterred and does not want war. This is not just an assessment; it is very strong intelligence. Why doesn’t Hamas want war? For multiple reasons, not just deterrence. Of course, we have deterrence in Gaza, and Hamas has no interest in entering a conflict every year, especially when it is still in the process of military and civilian recovery. But deterrence has limits and is only one of the factors. There are other reasons as well. After Guardian of the Walls, we worked effectively to create civilian shock absorbers. Economic rehabilitation and work in Israel influence civilians and impose a cost on Hamas. The residents of Gaza want peace, and Hamas—contrary to its image—is very attentive to them. That is why it seeks to inflame Judea and Samaria and East Jerusalem while keeping Gaza quiet.”

October 5, 2023

The final operational order, signed by the supreme commander of the Al-Qassam Brigades, Mohammed Deif, specifies October 7 at 6:30 AM as the scheduled start of the attack.

October 7, 2023 – The Change in Intelligence Assessment of Hamas’ Intentions

At 6:30 AM on October 7, Brigadier General Amit Saar, head of the Research Division in the Intelligence Directorate, testified:
“Essentially, the main thing I realized was that I didn’t understand. Only after the rocket barrages at 6:30 AM, at the beginning of the ‘Al-Aqsa Flood’ attack, did the small dots from the previous night suddenly connect into a terrifying picture all at once.”

**Machine translation from original Hebrew

February 26, 2025 | Comments »

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