By Jonathan Feldstein
I’m not sure what the rationale was to bring an Islamist nation with expansionist goals and a vision of creating a revised Ottoman caliphate into NATO to begin with, but if it ever made sense, it no longer does. It’s time to expel Turkey from NATO.
It’s generous to look at Turkey as “European,” and they certainly have no connection to the North Atlantic, but Turkey certainly does threaten Europe. Turkey creates tension because of it is the only NATO member with such broad expansionist goals: in Syria, in northern Africa, as well as its occupation of Cyprus (which is part of Europe). Turkey allowed a flood of millions of illegal migrants from Syria and elsewhere to transverse its borders, and enter actual Europe.
As a member of NATO, Turkey puts all NATO countries into a potential conflict due to its aggression, with each having the obligation to defend fellow NATO members. Aspiring to erase borders and threaten and control other countries, Turkey’s may suck all of Europe into a broader regional war.
Recently, the possibility of a regional war has never been more real. Turkish fingerprints are all over the fall of the Assad regime in Syria by arming and supporting the jihadi terrorists that now control much of Syria.
What would happen if Russia or Iran would seek to regain their lost influence by taking military action against Turkey? Would NATO members really need to defend that?
What if Turkey’s growing occupation of Syria puts its targeting the US backed Kurdish community in jeopardy, and in the crosshairs of the US? Could it trigger a war by Turkey attacking US allies, in which the US is obligated under NATO to defend Turkey?
What if the newfound Turkish influence in and occupation of Syria brings it to direct conflict with Israel as Turkish President Erdogan had threatened multiple times, and is now physically closer and able to implement through its neo-Ottoman land bridge? Will NATO be forced to confront Israel if Israel were to attack Turkey to defend itself?
Maybe this is all far-fetched, but who would have imagined several weeks ago that we’d wake up one morning and there would be no more Assad regime after half a century? Who imagined that Israel would be able to eliminate the majority of the Syrian military virtually overnight, land more than 100 troops deep into Syria to destroy an Iranian missile plant, or that one day thousands of Hezbollah terrorists would be disarmed (literally) by exploding beepers.
Adding fuel to the threats that he’s made against Israel for years, Turkish President Erdogan announced recently that Turkey’s long-range missile capabilities are being strengthened, increasing the number of missiles with an 800 km range along with missiles with a range of 2,000 km.
While Erdogan has stoked his nation’s anti-Israeli sentiment for years, there’s no shortage of popular support for the Islamist’s position. Recently, tens of thousands of people demonstrated against Israel in Istanbul, expressing solidarity with Gazans and Hamas.
Growing signs that Israel must prepare for a potential war were addressed in the recent report of Israel’s Nagel Committee, to assess the growing risk of a direct armed conflict with Turkey.
The report highlights “Turkey’s ambitions to reclaim Ottoman-era influence, posing a threat that could surpass even the Iranian challenge,” noting that “The Syrian threat could transform into something more perilous, with Turkish-backed forces acting as proxies to destabilize the region.”
The committee proposed several areas to prepare for a worst-case scenario with Turkey including: acquiring more F-15s, refueling aircraft, drones, and satellites to enhance long-range strike capabilities; strengthening Israel’s diverse Iron Dome, David’s Sling, and Arrow defense systems, along with the new Iron Beam; enhancing a fortified security barrier along the Jordan Valley across which Turkish backed terrorists could penetrate Israel.
For more than a decade, Israel’s relations with Turkey has spiraled down, with occasional hopeful improvements. Despite multiple wars and operations, the trumped-up arrest of Israeli tourists, and more, the two have maintained diplomatic relations, most of the time.
Even following the 2010 Turkish-led flotilla attempt to breach Israel’s maritime blockade on Gaza, ending up with the death of 10 Turkish citizens, Erdogan accused Israel of war crimes, claimed Israel is an apartheid state, and even threatened to take over the Temple Mount, relations were maintained. In 2018, both countries recalled their ambassadors. Most recently to restore relations, Israeli President Herzog paid a 2022 state visit to Turkey.
Erdogan has responded to Israel’s war against Hamas by severing all ties with Israel, imposing a trade blockade on Israel last April. Doubling down, Turkey joined South African’s accusation of Israel for allegations of genocide at the International Court of Justice.
Tourism, once a major facet of the bilateral relationship between Turkey and Israel, has also all but disappeared. Once a top destination for Israelis, it is no longer. There are currently no direct flights between the countries, a route once offering the most frequent departures from Israel.
Where there had once been so many flights, so much tourism, and each were major trade partners, and that’s all but evaporated, one wonders how much lower things can go. In that context, what’s to prevent Turkey from acting on its aggressive threats?
Turkey is looking to cement further its influence in Syria, which shares a border with Israel. For years, despite being officially at war, the border was one of Israel’s quietest. Now, as Turkey inches closer to Israel geographically, this quiet could be broken.
A military confrontation between Turkey and Israel would be unprecedented, whether intentional or not. Israel, which is still in the midst of a war on multiple fronts and with an Iranian threat still looming, still dealing with the trauma of the Hamas massacre and ensuing war, will not tolerate additional threats. Were Erdogan to take aggressive military action, Israel would be hard pressed not to respond forcefully. A war with Turkey would be shocking and unprecedented, but not impossible. And then as a NATO member, what would NATO’s responsibility be in defending Turkey?
For all these and other reasons, whether its expelling Turkey from NATO, or scrapping NATO and creating NATO 2.0 excluding Turkey, the status quo cannot remain.
The remaining wildcard is whether President Trump recognizes Turkey’s growing dangerous influence, and can and will act on it. Hopefully the answer is yes.
Turkey is complicated. On one hand, Turkey really should be expelled from NATO. They are not a team player, and have been a problem more than once. They are a lone wolf, and a loose canon.
Most notably, Turkey was kicked out of the F-35 program in 2019, because they insisted on buying the S-400 air defense system from Russia. Integrating the two systems, which is one of the important functionalities of the F-35, would have been technically problematic, but from a security standpoint, it would have given Russian technicians and engineers access to the F-35’s classified systems.
Then, there is Turkey’s genocidal fixation with the Kurds, who are US allies, and who bore the brunt of much of the fighting in the defeat of ISIS. Similarly, Turkey is becoming more bellicose in its rhetoric and actions towards Israel, a major American ally. Turkey is to one extent or another a sponsor, and a host, to several Islamic terrorist groups. Turkey also has poor relations with its neighbors Greece and South Cyprus. Now, it is aggressively expanding into Syria, appropriating land for its renewed Ottoman Empire.
So, one may ask, why keep them around? There is an old saying, “Keep your friends close, and your enemies, closer”. NATO membership may provide at least some level of restraint to this loose canon. If Turkey was booted out, that might push them into “the other camp”, closer to Russia, China and Iran. Given Turkey’s strategic position, and its relatively powerful armed forces, that’s not a good idea.
Lastly, I recently read that no member of NATO can be expelled without a 100% unanimous vote. That would include Turkey, itself. As long as Turkey finds some value in being a member of NATO, it’s unlikely that it will vote itself out.
Bottom line: Turkey should be OUT of NATO, but their exit is unlikely. If it ever did happen, particularly under acrimonius circumstances, it could have very undesirable results. It’s like marrying into a family where your brother-in-law is a mobster. Bad example, I know, but that’s the best I could come up with.