FDD | Jan 9, 2025
Latest Developments
- Lebanon Chooses New President: Lebanon’s parliament elected Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) General Joseph Aoun to be the country’s next president. Aoun, who has been backed by both the United States and Saudi Arabia, vowed a “new era” for Lebanon in his acceptance speech on January 9. The parliament’s successful vote for Aoun follows 12 unsuccessful attempts to fill the presidency after it was vacated in 2022 by Michel Aoun (who is not related to Joseph Aoun).
- Aoun Vows Monopolization of Arms, Removal of Israel From Southern Lebanon: During his acceptance speech, Aoun pledged to ensure that the Lebanese state holds the exclusive right to possess weapons, an apparent reference to the large arsenal held by the Iran-backed, Lebanese terrorist organization Hezbollah. Aoun also vowed to end the IDF’s presence in southern Lebanon, saying that he would oversee discussions of a “strategic defense policy that enables the state to remove Israeli occupation from all territories.” Aoun’s election comes amidst a 60-day ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel that requires the IDF to withdraw from Lebanese territory, the LAF to dismantle Hezbollah infrastructure in southern Lebanon, and Hezbollah to remain north of the Litani River.
- Hezbollah Reluctantly Votes Aoun: Hezbollah’s parliamentary representatives said they had backed Aoun during the second round of voting for the sake of “national cohesion” but withheld during the first round in order to “send a message” that Hezbollah remains the “protectors of sovereignty.” The terrorist organization’s parliamentarians notably sat silent during a large round of applause that greeted Aoun’s pledge for a state monopoly on the possession of weapons.
FDD Expert Response
“Aoun’s election is an overdue milestone for Lebanon — but expectations should be tempered. Lebanon’s president lacks the constitutional authority to order Hezbollah’s disarmament, and Aoun was elected as another ‘consensus president’ with Hezbollah’s votes. They wouldn’t vote for a man who would set in motion a process leading to their disarmament.” — David Daoud, Senior Fellow
“Israel’s military success in Lebanon and the strings attached to Gulf reconstruction money forced Hezbollah to concede this round, cut its losses, and elect a president it had vetoed for 802 days. However, Lebanon is not out of the woods yet. Aoun promised the disarming of Hezbollah, and until that happens, the international community must remain focused and see to it that the Iran-backed militia does not stage a comeback.” — Hussain Abdul-Hussain, Research Fellow
“Joseph Aoun’s selection as president ends a two-year vacancy in Lebanon’s highest office, but the optimism expressed by the United States and France is premature. Before the second round of elections, Aoun met with Hezbollah representatives to discuss issues such as the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire and government formation. For those anticipating a significant shift in the Lebanese government’s stance toward Hezbollah, disappointment is likely.” — Ahmad Sharawi, Research Analyst
FDD Background and Analysis
“Biden Administration Reallocates Egyptian Aid to Fund Lebanese Armed Forces,” FDD Flash Brief
“Lebanon is not serious about disarming Hezbollah,” by Hussain Abdul-Hussain
“Don’t bet on the Lebanese Army to restrain Hezbollah,” by David Daoud
“Lebanon’s New Army Chief has History of Coordination with Hezbollah,” by Tony Badran
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