When Turkey becomes Iran

As Iran begins the countdown toward the collapse of the Ayatollah regime, Turkey is heading in the opposite direction, gradually being overtaken by Islamism. Years ago, Bernard Lewis, the preeminent Middle East scholar of our time, remarked that the day would come when ‘Iran will become Turkey, and Turkey will become Iran.’

A market in Istanbul, Photo: Avi Cohen

Over recent decades, Iran has spared no effort in advancing its flagship regional project: establishing dominance in the Fertile Crescent, a stretch spanning Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Gaza. Iran’s proxies, Hezbollah and Hamas, have sought to encircle Israel in a ring of fire and suffocation as the first step toward its destruction.

The fall of Assad’s regime in Syria dashed Iran’s grand ambitions and set Tehran back significantly.

But in the absence of a vacuum, Turkey under Erdogan has rushed to fill the void. Erdogan backed Abu Muhammad al-Julani, Syria’s new ruler, financing and arming his forces and granting him the green light to attack and dismantle the regime in Damascus.

Erdogan’s Syrian adventure aims to dismantle the Kurdish autonomy in northern Syria, which has stirred nationalist sentiments among Turkey’s large Kurdish minority. Additionally, Erdogan seeks to rid Turkey of millions of Syrian refugees, who have become a political and economic burden.

At the same time, Erdogan aims to edge out Shiite Iran from the region. The two countries are locked in both religious and political rivalry, competing for dominance in the Middle East.

This is far from certain. While al-Julani has benefited from Erdogan’s support, it is doubtful that he wishes to become Erdogan’s proxy or agent. Furthermore, Turkey lacks the economic and military resources to assume control over Syria. And this is even before considering the potential opposition from Trump, whom the Turks fear.

However, Syria is just one part of the bigger picture. Like the Ayatollahs in Iran, Erdogan harbors grand ambitions—to restore the glory of the Ottoman Empire, which once ruled the entire Middle East. It is clear that Erdogan views Islamic zealotry, steeped in hatred for Israel, as the glue to unite the pieces of the Middle Eastern puzzle under his control.

Ironically, there was a time in the last century when Israel enjoyed the friendship of both Turkey and Iran. Both nations were moderate, pro-Western states resisting the attempts of radical clerics to impose religious rule.

But in 1979, Iran fell to the Ayatollahs, who transformed it into a radical Islamic republic. In recent months, Iran has faced repeated failures in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria. These external setbacks are compounded by ongoing domestic failures in governance and the economy, fueling sharp criticism on the Iranian street. Disillusionment with the regime has led many to believe that its downfall is inevitable, though it may take months or even years.

While Iran seems to be counting down to the end of the Ayatollahs’ rule, Turkey is moving in the opposite direction, increasingly Islamized. Bernard Lewis’s observation from years ago—that “Iran will become Turkey, and Turkey will become Iran”—appears to be coming true, with one country moderating and the other transforming into a backward, radical Islamic republic.

It is too early to determine whether Turkey will achieve its grandiose aspirations in Syria and the Middle East. Even before that, it remains to be seen whether al-Julani can solidify his rule in Syria and turn it into an Islamic theocracy.

What is certain is that al-Julani’s rise to prominence in Damascus under Turkey’s sponsorship has created tension in many Arab states, foremost among them Jordan. While Israel fears the spillover of terror from Syria, Jordan worries about the infiltration of radical Islamic revolutionary ideas into its already fragile society.

Israel, along with Jordan, Egypt, and the Gulf states, is closely monitoring the situation and exploring avenues for cooperation to address this new border threat. Yet, it is important to remember that this challenge pales in comparison to the threat Iran still poses—a threat that remains as significant as ever.