IDF Top Brass Favor an Attack on Iran Very Soon

Peloni:  The only way to end the sway of Iranian influence and the flow of Iranian arms to the Houthis will be to end the regime in Tehran.

By Hugh Fitzgerald | Dec 25, 2024

Everyone now knows that Iran is rushing pell-mell to enrich enough uranium to the 60% level of purity, just one step below weapons-grade, to be able to produce several nuclear weapons.. Rafael Grossi, director of the International Atomic Energy Agency, recently confirmed it. The Americans know that Iran, having seen its Axis of Resistance crumble into dust, with Hamas near total collapse, Hezbollah devastated and suing for a ceasefire with Israel, and Iran’s ally Bashar Assad, on whose regime Tehran spent $50 billion, fleeing to Moscow while Syria itself, under new management, is determined to produce nuclear weapons as its only certain defense against either the Little Satan, Iran, or the Great Satan, the United States. Syria now has gone overnight from ally to implacable enemy of Iran. And Iran itself is more susceptible to an attack by Israel than it has ever been, now that the IAF’s airstrikes on October 26 managed to destroy nearly all of Iran’s missile defenses, including the four S-300 anti-missile systems that protected Tehran. More on why Israel’s generals are now counseling an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities during this unprecedented window of opportunity can be found here: “Israel’s military leadership ‘recommends attacking Iran’ — TV report,” Times of Israel, December 22, 2024:

Almost all of the top brass of Israel’s defense establishment thinks Israel should attack “inside Iranian territory,” Israel’s Channel 12 news reports.

The question of tackling Iran — a possible reference both to efforts to deter the Houthis and to Iran’s nuclear facilities — has also come up repeatedly in meetings of the Israeli security cabinet, according to the report, even as Israel has focused in recent days on ways to counter the upsurge in missile attacks by the Houthis.

The report says Israel assesses that the Houthis took a decision to escalate missile and other attacks, and that their actions against Israel are not always coordinated with Iran or even appreciated by Iran.

Channel 12 quotes unnamed Israeli political and military leaders assessing that Tehran’s leadership thinks Israel may attack it soon, and asserting that the regime leadership is holding frenzied consultations to decide what to do about this.

In a report that it stresses was approved by the military censor, Channel 12 says that at recent meetings of Israel’s political and military leadership, it has been said that the Iranians believe Israel chose to accept a ceasefire in the north in order to free up resources to deal directly with Iran and exact a price from the regime….

That is almost certainly what the Iranians believe, for why else, they ask themselves, would Israel agree to a ceasefire when it had Hezbollah on the ropes and was well on the way to devastating it, as it had done to Hamas in Gaza? Israel must have decided to concentrate both its men and its weapons on the denouement of the multi-front war with Hamas, Hezbollah,-Syria, and the Houthis, the one that is aimed at the “head of the snake,” which is Iran.

Iran recognizes that its military position is one of unprecedented weakness. It no longer has a functioning anti-missile defense system. It interprets Israel’s acceptance of a ceasefire with Hezbollah as reflecting a decision to channel the IDF’s resources into destroying Iran’s nuclear facilities; and now Trump’s ascension to the presidency on January 20, 2025 means that Israel will have an unshakable ally in Washington ready to supply the Jewish state with whatever weapons, including 30,000-pound bunker busters, and planes heavy enough to carry them, that it will need to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities that are located underground at Natanz and inside a mountain at Fordow.

In Syria, the government will now be run by a caretaker government until elections can be held in March. That temporary government is now being run by the uber-Sunnis of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. The new government, headed by the HTS rebels, quite rightly regards Iran as an enemy for having supported Bashar Assad’s regime. It will do nothing to help, and much to hinder. Iran’s plans to re-establish relations with Syria. Iran will not be returning to Syria — on this both the Syrians and the Israelis agree. As for Lebanon, with Syria under new and unfriendly management, it will be impossible for Iran to deliver weapons to resupply Hezbollah using its previous route. Weapons sent by sea from Iran to Hezbollah would require a long sea journey through the Persian Gulf, then down around the Cape of Good Hope, and up along the west coast of Africa, through the Straits of Gibraltar, and then into the Mediterranean to be offloaded at the port of Beirut, where Hezbollah will be waiing to take delivery. A very long, very expensive, and very uncertain trip, with the Israeli navy no doubt anchored off of Lebanon’s coast waiting to intercept any ship carrying Iranian weapons.

But the outlet [Channel 12] also cites unnamed sources as saying that Israel should avoid a protracted confrontation with Tehran right now since it would not serve Israel’s interests — though Israel must still nurture and advance its operational capabilities regarding Iran.

In other words, there are those “unnamed sources” who agree with the majority of the upper echelon of IDF officers, that Israel must “nurture and advance” its readiness to take on Iran, but who disagree that that attack should take place now. Is it true that such an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities would be “protracted”? Wouldn’t such an attack be over within a day or two? Perhaps these Israeli sources are worried that, with Hamas still showing signs of life in northern Gaza, Hezbollah observing the ceasefire only intermittently and continuing its buildup of forces north of the Litani River, and the Houthis still firing missiles at Israel from Yemen (including one that just hit Tel Aviv, wounding sixteen Israelis), so far undeterred by the bombings carried out both by Israel and by CENTCOM, that all of that unfinished business with Iran’s proxies should be concluded before Israel takes on the proxy-master itself, Iran. The question is: how long can Israel afford to wait, given how rapidly the Iranians are enriching uranium to just one level below weapons-grade? Will it depend on President Trump supplying the necessary bunker-buster bombs, and planes to deliver them, which should be one of his first acts after January 20? The mullahs are right to be frantic with fear.