Russia Negotiating With New Syrian Government to Keep Military Bases

FDD | Dec 13, 2024

Latest Developments

• Russia Negotiates To Keep Bases: Officials from Russia and representatives of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) — the Syrian rebel group that overthrew Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad last week — are conducting direct negotiations over whether Moscow can retain control over its two military bases in Syria, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov said during a press conference on December 12. Bogdanov said that negotiations were “proceeding in a constructive fashion,” urging HTS to keep its promise to “guard against all excesses” during its takeover.

• No Decisions Yet: Following its military intervention in the Syrian civil war in 2015, Russia had been Assad’s key ally in combating rebel groups such as HTS, maintaining a naval logistics facility in Tartus and an air base in Khmeimim — both located in western Syria near the Mediterranean coast. Bogdanov cautioned that no decisions have been made yet, and Syrian official Mohammed Sabra said that a public referendum will decide any foreign presence in Syria. The Financial Times reported on December 13 that satellite images of Khmeimim air base showed the “arrival of several large transport aircraft and the disassembly of Russian helicopters and air defenses — all factors consistent with forces gathering there to depart.”

• Bases Used as Russia’s Regional Logistic Hubs: Tartus and Khmeimim are used as critical logistics hubs for Russia’s activities in the Middle East, the Mediterranean, and Africa. The bases played a role in Russia’s Syrian campaign in which it committed atrocities against Syrian civilians on behalf of Assad’s regime, including in HTS’s stronghold, Idlib province. In 2017, Moscow and Damascus signed a 49-year lease for the bases.

FDD Expert Response

“A continuing Russian presence in Syria would be a monument to impunity. Russian planes bombed hospitals behind rebel lines while the Kremlin did all in its power to protect Assad from accountability for his numerous atrocities. Perhaps Russia can entice Syria’s new rulers to make a deal — it would still be shameful.” — David Adesnik, Vice President of Research

“Russia’s withdrawal from Syria appears to be picking up steam, though it remains unclear whether Russia will have to completely abandon Khmeimim air base and the Tartus naval logistics facility. Reports suggest that Moscow is angling to retain a presence at Khmeimim and Tartus, hoping to exploit divisions in Syria and its ties to various local actors. Washington should use its leverage with the new authorities in Damascus to encourage them to show Russia the door.” — John Hardie, Russia Program Deputy Director

FDD Background and Analysis

“‘A Historic Day in the Middle East’: Bashar al-Assad Flees to Russia as Rebels Take Syrian Capital,” FDD Flash Brief

“Assad’s Enemies Are Not Our Friends,” by Bill Roggio

“‘Everything Assad Got From Iran and Russia Has Been Destroyed’: Israel Ramps Up Attacks on Syria’s Arsenals,” FDD Flash Brief

“What’s at stake for America in Syria after Bashar al-Assad,” by David Adesnik