Today, perhaps, the main question is: what next? Opinion.
Alexander Maistrovoy A. Maistrovoy
After the blitzkrieg in Syria, the Sunni “jihadists” may not stop, and quite possibly will not stop. Appetite comes with eating, and rapid victorious campaigns very often become in history a prelude to new successful conquests.
This is exactly what happened with the Arabs themselves when, with extraordinary speed they captured Baghdad and Damascus in 750 C.E. and rushed in all directions: from Byzantium in the west to Iran, the Caucasus and Central Asia in the east and Egypt and North Africa in the south.
Today, the “jihadists” have got epic opportunities, and their collective aspirations may push them to try to repeat the successful experiences of the past.
The first potential target is Lebanon.
Sunni Islamists hate Hezbollah. Apart from religious hatred, Hezbollah committed atrocities in Syria comparable to October 7. Entire villages were burned, cities were emptied.
In the Middle East, this does not go unnoticed, and now, when Hezbollah is extremely weakened by Israel, it is the perfect time to settle scores with its sworn enemies.
The second potential target is Jordan.
The weak, tottering Hashemite monarchy is a tasty morsel for the “jihadists”.
Jordan has a large concentration of Syrian refugees (about 620 000) who could easily be mobilized under the banners of the “jihadists.” 60% or even more of the population here are Palestinian Arabs, many of whom sympathize with the Salafi too. The influential “Muslim Brotherhood” here are Islamists, only of a different kind.
It is unlikely that they will all find a lasting common language, but, like in nature in the wild, predators first bring down their prey using joint efforts, and then share their dinner.
On the one hand, such developments promise a headache for Israel, which has its longest and poorly controlled border with Jordan, but on the other hand, it could open new and unique opportunities.
In a chaotic world where Iran and Russia are extremely weakened, the Middle East is in flames, and our allies are in power in the United States, the option of a “Palestinian state” may appear – but in the territory of Jordan.
For all the risks, the chaos in Jordan can therefore present unique opportunities.
The third potential target is Iraq.
Iraq is a fictitious, failed state consisting of de facto Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish entities.
There is no doubt that the Sunni “jihadists” in Iraq will enthusiastically open their arms to their Syrian brethren. The “Islamic State” in one form or another may re-emerge from oblivion. The idea of ??the “Caliphate” will take hold of the Arabs with new and even greater force.
Undoubtedly, the Shiites, organized into paramilitary groups and supported by Iran, albeit weakened, will meet them fully armed.
This will be a “great religious war” between the two schools of Islam. It is inevitable. If it does not happen now, it will happen in the near future in any case.
The Kurds, who already have de facto autonomy, will resist the “jihadists”, as they have done more than once. It will be extremely important for Israel to provide them with maximum support, despite Turkish hysterics.
Aggressive Turkey is today becoming Israel’s most dangerous enemy and weakening it will be a key strategic task from now on. Moreover, Beijing is likely to reorient itself towards Turkey from Iran as the dominant power in the region, with which it is also linked by deep hatred for the West, Israel and India. For Israel, the support of the Trump administration will be extremely important in this case, especially since Trump wants to limit China’s sphere of influence, and I believe we will get it.
If a strong Kurdish state is created, we will have (for the first time in history!) a genuine and loyal ally in the region.
Risks must be neutralized as much as possible; opportunities must be used to the maximum. Israel must behave like a great regional power, influencing the balance of power in the region and skillfully extracting benefits for itself in chaotic political cataclysms.
Alexander Maistrovoy, born in Moscow in 1960, began his journalism career in the early 80s with articles in various Russian publications. In 1988 he immigrated to Israel and worked for the Russian-language Israeli press. He has been published on Arutz Sheva, Times of Israel, Jihad Watch, Frontpage Mag, Gatestone Institute, ?anada Free Press, Liberty Unyielding and other sites. He authored “Jewish Atlántida” about the mystery of the lost tribes in Russian (Phoenix publishing) which was translated into Finnish and in 2015 published the book “Agony of Hercules or a Farewell to Democracy (Notes of a Stranger).
All the Islamists groups were a spin-off originally of the Muslim Brotherhood.
750 CE was an important year. The Arabs overran Damascus and Baghdad, and went on to conquer Iran and Central Asia, fighting the Chinese, and taking over North Africa, and into Spain and France. The Lombards (famous for being the ancestors of the Green Bay Packers’ own Vince Lombardi) took control of Italy, and the Pope fled to a backwater city called “Rome”. He invited a short man named “Pepin” to come to Italy to help him against the Lombards, and this became the Holy Roman Empire; and little Pepin sired what was to become all the major royal houses of Europe. Here’s a good map of that place:
https://www.deviantart.com/cyowari/art/Europe-750-AD-774852974
PS. The blue area in the Caucasus area is the Jewish kingdom of Khazaria, probably the largest kingdom in history inhabited and controlled by Jews. Quite “happening” times!