It Can Be Said with near Certainty That the LAF and UNIFIL Will Not Succeed in Preventing Hezbollah’s Re-Establishment Along the Border.
Jonathan Spyer | MEF | November 26, 2024
An Israeli strike against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon. Shutterstock
Nothing is yet confirmed, but it appears that a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanese Hezbollah is imminent. The fighting, which began on 8 October last year, has claimed thousands of lives and left the Israel-Lebanon border area decimated on both sides. But there is anger that Israel is rushing into an agreement that will not keep those who live near to the Lebanese border safe.
Community leaders in Israel’s north have reacted with anger to the announcement of the proposed cessation in hostilities. They noted that while Hezbollah’s infrastructure along the border has been extensively damaged, the movement itself has not been destroyed. The proposed agreement also does not include a buffer zone. What this means, according to Eitan Ben Davidi, chairman of Moshav Margaliot farming community in the border area, is that residents of Israel’s north are set to ‘return to having Hezbollah as neighbours’.
On the other hand, supporters of Hezbollah also appear unenthusiastic about the emergent ceasefire. The Lebanese Shia Islamist movement entered the fight against Israel a day after the Hamas massacres that launched the current war. Their rationale was clear and simple: to maintain a ‘support front’, for as long as the fighting in Gaza continued.
As the now deceased Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah expressed it in a broadcast at the time:
We say to the enemy’s government, to the enemy’s army and to the enemy’s society, the Lebanon front will not stop until the aggression on Gaza stops. The resistance in Lebanon will not stop standing by the people of Gaza.
Nasrallah, of course, is no longer available to decide on this, or on anything else. But it appears that his organisation and its Iranian patrons have elected to abandon this commitment, and the course of action it would necessitate. The fighting in Gaza, after all, is far from over, and shows no signs of wrapping up any time soon. Israel’s slow grinding of Hamas to powder is proceeding apace.
His being Christian does not mean he’s against hezbollah. Free Patriotic Movement is a Christian party aligned with Hezbollah.
@Laura
This is what you deduce after seeing the deep bench of pro-Israel characters appointed by Trump, not all of whom I support, but all of whom are intensely outspoken in their support of Israel and against Hezbollah. Yet, because Trump picked a Lebanese Christian who has business dealings in Lebanon, you deduce that
As you chomp at the bit to see this reality come to life, you ignore the wider context in which Boulos was chosen to serve as Trump’s advisor on arab & middle eastern affairs. Boulos, who is a member of the persecuted Lebanese Christian community, is an Arab with strong personal ties to Lebanon but whose financial empire is based in Nigeria and whose income is largely derived from all over Africa. While having Lebanese business interests as well, he has a direct personal association with Trump, which seems to be, for many of his appointments, the guiding principle by which Trump is making his first round of appointment choices.
While I am certainly not happy with Boulos’ appointment, just one of many of Trump’s appointees over which I am disappointed, I am certainly not swayed by your argument that this is evidence that Trump is ready to betray Israel on the eve of his inauguration as you suggest. Time will tell many things, but if Trump is setting Israel up for a fall, he has staffed half of his White House with pro-Israel politicians, all of whom hold the wrong sentiment to support your conclusion.
What is more, this is not pro-Trump “spin” as you presupposed in anticipation of a response, but rather it is simple logic looking at the full picture rather than considering this single advisor as being the key which reveals your preconceived sour-grapes perception of Trump as real.
So, do me a favor, and take a cold hard look at the full picture of Trump’s staffing choices and tell me how your conjecture makes any sense at all.
In any event, Boulos has made radical shifts in his political alliances in Lebanon, which more closely indicates his desire to keep his head above water rather than anything else. Also, his past association with Hezbollah controlled Lebanon will only be relevant if the Mullahs do not fall from power, something which Bibi and the Israeli public are keen to see take place. If the Mullahs fall, all that was true of Lebanon will be reconsidered in the wake of the shifting power politics which are already taking place due to Iran and its proxies have been decimated by Israel even while it was being restrained from doing so. So we will see what comes next and what if any significance Trump’s latest appointment might have on all of this.
This has me concerned. Does anyone know anything about this guy who’s set to be Trump’s advisor on Middle East affairs. I heard he’s affiliated with hezbollah. Sounds like pro-Israel people have been suckered and this may be the real reason Bibi agreed to the ceasefire in Lebanon, pressure from Trump rather than lame duck Biden who he hadn’t caved throughout the war. I had my suspicions. Nepotism at its worst. Jewish conservatives have been suckered the way Democrat Jews have been for years. I fully expect the folks at israpundit to spin this development as somehow pro-Israel rather than admit Trump pulled the wool over our eyes. https://msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-says-massad-boulos-will-serve-as-adviser-on-arab-middle-eastern-affairs/ar-AA1v4HX8?ocid=msedgntp&pc=HCTS&cvid=34518606c06c47338bb35e43655c6266&ei=21