NAVIGATING THE IRANIAN OPPOSITION

Peloni:  Among the six principles discussed by Berman in this important analysis is the fact that Iran’s nuclear ambitions may not necessarily be extinguished with the rule of the Mullahs, presuming the Iranian opposition ever finds the means by which to solidify their overwhelming support to achieve such a happy undertaking.  This should not be a terribly surprising conclusion, given the power and prestige which continuing to pursue inclusion into the nuclear power club, would afford to the governing body which might rise following the fall of the Mullahs, no matter which form that govt might actually take.  Hence, the fears of a nuclear Iran should be seen to be both a contingent with and separate from the pursuit of ending the menacing Mullahs in Tehran.

A NATIONAL SECURITY BLUEPRINT FOR THE UNITED STATES

ILAN BERMAN | AFPC | OCTOBER 2024

Executive Summary

Nearly half a century after the Islamic Revolution of 1979, Iran stands at a critical juncture.  Widespread popular disaffection, pronounced economic decline, dwindling religiosity, and pervasive societal malaise have coalesced into a volatile and potentially transformative political climate.  The recent “woman, life, freedom” movement has highlighted a fundamental rejection of the Islamic Republic’s religious system of government on the part of many Iranians. And despite the regime’s current, dominant position, these underlying tensions persist, suggesting that Iran may face another cycle of anti-regime activity in the near future.

This paper outlines six key principles that should guide U.S. policymakers in navigating Iran’s
complex opposition landscape and shaping a post-theocratic Iran that is aligned with American
strategic interests:

1. National integrity: Support opposition elements that are firmly committed to maintaining
   Iran’s territorial cohesion. Iran’s diverse ethnic makeup, while a potential point of leverage,
   should not be exploited to fragment the country. A fractured Iran poses significant security
   risks, particularly given the advanced state of the country’s nuclear program. Balkanization
   could lead to a “loose nukes” scenario, making the security of Iran’s nuclear technology,
   enriched uranium stockpiles, and related components an overriding concern.
2. Civil society: Prioritize opposition groups advocating for robust civil society and meaningful
   engagement across Iran’s political spectrum. Such a focus is necessary to counter the Islamic
   Republic’s long legacy of repression and its systematic undermining of pre-Islamic culture.
   Support should be directed toward forces committed to broadening and strengthening
   the country’s civil society, ensuring true pluralism and participation from diverse political
   factions and perspectives.
3. Secular governance: Promote legislative frameworks allowing for the broadest possible
   expression of faith without compelling adherence to any particular belief system or reli-
   gion. Such an approach would recognize the growing distance from religion exhibited by
   the Iranian population writ large, and seek to avoid the unintended consequences that have
   accompanied recent embraces of state religion in places such as Afghanistan and Iraq.
4. Nuclear development: Recognize that a will to nuclear power will likely persist in a post-theocratic Iran, given broad popular support for nuclear status among ordinary Iranians.  However, opposition forces must commit to pursuing any development in this arena through a transparent, verifiable process that is both internationally monitored and regulated.
5. Pluralism: Focus on fostering religious tolerance, gender equality, and social inclusive-
   ness rather than insisting on Western-style democracy as the only acceptable outcome of a
   iv AFPC | SPECIAL REPORT: NAVIGATING THE IRANIAN OPPOSITION
   post-theocratic transition. Historical data suggests that environments which protect religious,
   gender, and ethnic minority rights have a better chance of evolving in a pluralistic, inclusive
   direction. The U.S. should encourage cooperation among disparate Iranian opposition groups
   and foster durable coalitions committed to these principles.
6. Accountability and rehabilitation: Encourage opposition plans that balance holding
   regime officials accountable for past atrocities with reintegrating key segments of the current
   power structure into the country’s future political order. This is particularly crucial with
   regard to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which wields extensive economic
   and strategic influence in present-day Iran. As such, the complete exclusion of the IRGC from
   public life would be difficult and potentially unwise. However, its subordination to the new
   political order is essential. Opposition forces should articulate a clear process for rehabilitating
   and reintegrating this and other key regime groups while ensuring their accountability.

The United States needs to communicate clear expectations for Iran’s future while empow-
ering those opposition elements that are best positioned to steer the country in a direction
compatible with American interests. Yet policymakers must approach this task judiciously,
recognizing the challenges of influencing internal dynamics and the mixed record of past U.S.
interventions abroad.

Ultimately, Iran’s future rests with Iranians themselves. But the U.S. can and should play a
constructive role by articulating principles that would put a post-theocratic Iran on a trajectory of
security and prosperity that is consonant with American interests

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