‘Designed To Be Permanent’: Israel Agrees to Ceasefire Agreement With Hezbollah

Peloni:  Two days ago I wrote “what is the likelihood that the power structure in Lebanon which is dominated by the Iranian backed Shia will be permanently broken? I would suggest that the odds are quite low, unless one of two factors are achieved:

The Mullah’s regime is toppled
Israel maintains unfettered access to act against Iran’s arms shipments into Lebanon

Should any resolution of the situation in Lebanon fail to include either of these stipulations, the rise of Hezbollah or Hezbollah 2.0 will be inevitable.”

Ben Gvir was correct to vote against this folly.

FDD | November 26, 2024

Latest Developments

• Israel to Withdraw Forces From Southern Lebanon: Israel’s cabinet accepted an American- and French-brokered ceasefire agreement on November 26 that would end fighting between Israel and the Iran-backed Hezbollah terrorist group in Lebanon at 4 a.m. on November 27. Under the deal, which largely reinforces UN Security Council Resolution 1701 of 2006, Israeli forces will have 60 days to withdraw from southern Lebanon. Hezbollah is required to withdraw north of the Litani River, and the Lebanese Armed Forces would be tasked with securing the territory between the river and the Israeli border 18 miles to its south, dismantling Hezbollah’s infrastructure, and ensuring that its forces and UNIFIL, the UN peacekeeping force in Lebanon, are the only armed personnel in the area. The agreement also includes the establishment of a committee composed of the United States, France, and the United Kingdom to monitor violations of the agreement. The Lebanese government, which serves as an intermediary with Hezbollah and must also approve the agreement, is expected to meet for discussions on November 27.

• Netanyahu Urges Support For Deal: In a televised speech following a cabinet meeting in which the deal was approved, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin urged his coalition to accept the deal. Netanyahu said that there were three primary reasons that he supported the deal. First, it was to focus on Iran, which funds and supports an axis of anti-Israel terrorist groups, including Hezbollah; second, to rest and replenish Israel’s armed forces with advanced weaponry; and third, to isolate Hamas, which has welcomed the participation of Hezbollah and other Iranian proxies in the war it sparked with its massacre in Israel on October 7, 2023. Netanyahu’s appeal came at the end of a day that saw Hezbollah launch attacks on Israel’s north, including Haifa, Nahariya, Acre, and the Galilee, and Israeli air strikes on Hezbollah’s strongholds around Beirut, Sidon, Tyre, and the Beqaa Valley.

• Biden Hopes to Prevent Cycle of Violence: President Joe Biden said in a televised speech after speaking with Netanyahu that the agreement was “designed to be a permanent cessation of hostilities.” He lamented the civilians on both sides who were forced to evacuate their homes along the border due to the fighting, adding that the deal would finally allow the Lebanese army to “deploy and take control over their territory.”  Addressing the war in Gaza, Biden stressed that “Hamas has a choice to make. Their only way out is to release the hostages, including American citizens.”

FDD Expert Response

“While the ceasefire will hopefully provide some welcome relief after several months of fighting, what’s not negotiable is Israel’s right to deal with the continued threat posed by Hezbollah. The Iran-backed terrorist group has been severely diminished by Israel’s actions over the course of this year, but it has not been destroyed. Given that the Lebanese Armed Forces cannot be relied upon to counter a Hezbollah resurgence, that task will fall upon Israel’s shoulders. Israel must be free to strike Hezbollah when it detects an imminent threat without approval from anyone, ceasefire or no ceasefire. Everything depends on the Israeli response to violations — that alone will determine the agreement’s success.” — Mark Dubowitz, CEO

“This deal is only a cosmetic upgrade from UN Security Council Resolution 1701. It repeats that resolution’s failure of depending on Lebanon to act against Hezbollah, when Lebanon has consistently demonstrated both its unwillingness and its inability to act against the group. That, coupled with caveats on Israeli freedom of action in Lebanon, sets the stage for Hezbollah’s slow and patient regeneration in time.” — David Daoud, Senior Fellow

“While many in Israel are keen to see the end of a long war, the looming question is whether Israelis will feel safe enough to go back to their homes in northern Israel given the terms of the ceasefire. Much of this decision will come down to Israelis’ confidence in their government and the IDF to protect these border communities, a trust that was severely shaken on October 7, 2023.” — Enia Krivine, Senior Director of FDD’s Israel Program and National Security Network

“Hamas is likely to publicly support Hezbollah’s decision to accept a ceasefire with Israel. However, the Gaza-based terrorist group is also aware that an end to hostilities in Lebanon will deal an unwanted blow to Hamas itself, as well as its Palestinian allies, Hezbollah and the broader Iranian-led axis. Furthermore, a ceasefire in Lebanon could weaken Hamas’s position, potentially granting Israel the leverage required to dictate the terms of a resolution to the war in Gaza. The war against Hezbollah is not over, but Israel achieved a significant victory in Lebanon that may lead to a positive outcome in Gaza.” — Joe Truzman, Senior Research Analyst and Editor at FDD’s Long War Journal

FDD Background and Analysis

“‘No Return to Oct. 6’: Israel Poised to Approve Lebanon Truce,” FDD Flash Brief

“Most Dahiyeh Arms Sites Dismantled: Israel Guts Hezbollah’s Bastion,” FDD Flash Brief

“Israeli Strike Eliminates Hezbollah Leader Responsible for Killing Americans,” FDD Flash Brief

“The impact of Israeli operations on Hezbollah’s organizational structure,” by David Daoud and Ahmad Sharawi