Tommy Steiner | SIGNAL | November 14, 2024
Since the October 7th massacre in southern Israel and the outbreak of the war in Gaza, China’s leadership has conveyed outright support in word and deed for the Iran-led “Axis of Resistance.” The display of strategic vulnerability by Iran and its proxies since mid-August appears to have prompted Beijing to pause and reassess. Upon return from the National Day holiday in early October, China’s official messaging on Iran noticeably shifted. This adjustment has been further underscored by commentary from Chinese policy advisers specializing in the Middle East.
As events on the ground led to a review of its Middle East policies, China is refraining from outright public support of Iran and the Axis of Resistance it leads, at least for the time being. This is borne out by the striking difference between China’s response to Iran’s missile and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) attack on Israel in mid-April and its reaction to the latest ballistic missile attack on Israel by Iran on October 1. Similarly, the Chinese response to Israel’s retaliatory strike on Iran on October 28 reflected this revised approach. While the Foreign Ministry refrained from condemning Israel per se for its most recent attack, one of China’s most respected Middle East policy advisers all but justified it in an op-ed published in the China Daily.
A Tale of Two Telephone Calls
The day after the first Iranian drone and missile attack on Israel, on April 15, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi held a phone call with his then-Iranian counterpart, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, and showcased China’s steadfast support to Iran. The Chinese Foreign Ministry’s official readout quoted Wang as all but endorsing Iran’s barrage of drones and missiles on Israel:
“China has noted that Iran stated that the actions taken by Iran were limited and that it was exercising its right to self-defense … China appreciates Iran’s emphasis on not targeting regional countries and neighboring countries, and reaffirming its continued pursuit of a policy of good-neighborliness and friendship. China believes that Iran can handle the situation well and avoid further destabilization while safeguarding Iran’s sovereignty and dignity.“
Less than six months later, Beijing changed its stance. In the midst of the Chinese national holiday, on October 2, in response to Iran’s mass missile attack on Israel, the Foreign Ministry’s spokesperson in response simply stated that “China is deeply concerned about the turbulence in the Middle East.”
Following mounting international reports regarding potential Israeli retaliatory operations against Iran, on October 9, the Chinese ministry’s spokesperson reiterated the “deep concerns” over the instability in the Middle East and the need to prevent escalation. At the daily briefing, a reporter’s pointed question, which included extreme scenarios of Israeli attacks on Iran’s strategic sites and anticipated harsh criticism of Israel, resulted only in a measured expression of concern. The spokesperson merely called on all parties to “manage the current situation in a calm, rational and responsible manner from the perspective of preserving regional peace and stability.” This response amounts to China diplomatically distancing itself from Iran.
Five days later, on October 14, Wang called up his new Iranian counterpart, Abbas Araghchi. This time around, the official Chinese readout of the call conspicuously avoided any possible hint or suggestion that China approves of Iran’s missile attacks. While the readout commended Tehran’s diplomatic outreach to Arab countries, it implied subtle criticism noting that China “opposed taking adventurous military actions and called on all parties to do more to maintain regional peace and stability.” Beijing’s readout even seemed to present Iran as apologetic, stating that the Iranian minister promised to strengthen communication and coordination with China to “cool down” the regional situation. Rather than demonstrating close China-Iran relations, the call reinforced Beijing’s new “even-handed” approach toward Iran.
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