Putin could help Netanyahu cut Hezbollah’s Iranian arms via Syria if Trump offers favorable terms for freezing the war in Ukraine
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Israeli leader Benjamin Nethanyahu could conceivably strike a grand bargain with Donald Trump. Image: X Screengrab
MOSCOW – The recent report that Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer secretly visited Russia highlights the potentially big role that Moscow could play in resolving Middle Eastern wars.
Russia’s position has consistently been that Hamas provoked the initial Gazan dimension of these conflicts, but Israel disproportionately responded by collectively punishing the Palestinians.
The Kremlin still favors a two-state solution since Moscow voted for associated UN Security Council Resolutions, though it hasn’t pressed the issue.
That’s because Russia appreciates that Israel hasn’t abided by the West’s sanctions against it and has refused pressure to help arm Ukraine.
Their highly charged political differences over the Ukrainian conflict and the Middle Eastern wars haven’t changed this, nor has it led to Russia interfering with Israel’s regular strikes against the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Hezbollah in neighboring Syria.
On those, Russia respects Syria’s right to partner with whoever it wants, but it also informally appears to consider Iran to be a troublemaker.
This assessment weighs on the fact that the abovementioned arrangement has been in force since the start of Russia’s anti-terrorist intervention in the Arab Republic over nine years ago.
It can accordingly be surmised that Russia lends credence to Israel’s claims that Iran and Hezbollah are building up their military capabilities there in preparation for a larger attack against Israel. Even though Russia occasionally criticizes Israel’s strikes as violations of international law, it has never taken action to stop them.
One can thus assume that Dermer discussed the proposed plan for cutting off Hezbollah’s Iranian arms imports via Syria during his reportedly secret trip to Russia.
Not only could this help maintain whatever post-conflict status quo is ultimately agreed to in Lebanon upon the inevitable end of Israel’s military operations there, whenever that may be, but it could also stabilize the Israeli-Syrian front along the Golan Heights.
Russian President Vladimir Putin told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in September 2015 during their meeting in the Kremlin on the eve of the Syrian intervention that “we are aware of these (Iran’s and Hezbollah’s) attacks (from Syria’s Golan Heights into Israel) and we condemn them.”
The issue is so important to Putin that he even discussed it with US President Donald Trump during his first term when the two leaders met in Helsinki in July 2018. At the time, Putin said:
I would also like to note that after the terrorists are routed in southwest Syria, in the so-called ‘southern zone’, the situation in the Golan Heights should be brought into full conformity with the 1974 agreement on the disengagement of Israeli and Syrian forces.
This will make it possible to bring tranquility to the Golan Heights and restore the ceasefire between the Syrian Arab Republic and the State of Israel. The President devoted special attention to this issue today.
I would like to emphasize that Russia has a stake in this course of events and will adhere to exactly this position. This will constitute a step towards establishing a just and durable peace on the basis of UN Security Council Resolution 338.
After the September 2018 mid-air incident between Russia and Israel over Syria, RT reported that Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov revealed the following during a press conference:
The Russian military supported the Syrian military operation in the Golan Heights to ‘ensure there were no shelling attacks on Israeli territory’ anymore, thus allowing the UN peacekeeping mission to resume patrolling of the contested border between Syria and Israel after ‘a six-year hiatus.’
Russia also managed to secure the withdrawal of all Iran-backed groups from the Golan Heights to a ‘safe distance for Israel,’ more than 140 kilometers to the east of Syria, the spokesperson said, adding that this was done at the request of Tel Aviv. ‘A total of 1,050 personnel, 24 MLRSs and tactical missiles, as well as 145 pieces of other munitions and military equipment were withdrawn from the area,’ Konashenkov told journalists.”
One month later, while participating in his traditional Q&A at the Valdai Club’s yearly meeting, Putin said that:
It is not up to Russia to persuade Iran to leave Syria. After all, both Syria and Iran are sovereign countries, and they should build their own relationship.
Yes, Russia does have serious, deep-rooted ties both with Iran and Syria. Moreover, we have been able to resolve certain issues by engaging in dialogue and discussions with our Iranian partners, including on withdrawing offensive systems from the Israeli border and the Golan Heights.
As for the complete withdrawal, this is a separate issue that has to be resolved through dialogue between Iran and Syria, as well as between Iran and the United States. We are ready to join this discussion.”
Quite clearly, the Russian leader feels very strongly about preserving peace and stability in the Golan Heights.
Former Soviet dissident turned Israeli politician Natan Sharansky shared the following details with the Washington Post in September 2000 after his lunch with Putin at the Kremlin earlier that month:
Putin spent much of the lunch expressing, in occasionally lavish terms, his sympathy for Israel, his distaste for antisemitism and the importance he attaches to Jews in Russia and the Jewish diaspora, as well as his glowing memories of a family vacation some years ago in Jerusalem, the Galilee and the Golan Heights.
‘He said it wasn’t simple in the KGB being sympathetic to Jews,’ Sharansky said. ‘But he told me how he grew up in [a] communal apartment and there was a Jewish family there which for him were almost like relatives. He liked them very much.’
Of relevance, Putin told the Keren Heyesod Foundation during their annual conference in Moscow nearly two decades later in September 2019:
Russia and Israel support traditionally close cultural contacts. Every year hundreds of thousands of Russians visit Israel and see its cultural and religious landmarks. Russians and Israelis have ties of family and friendship.
This is a true common family; I can say this without exaggeration. Almost 2 million Russian speakers live in Israel. We consider Israel a Russian-speaking country. Our nations are united by common and often tragic pages in history.”
In this vein, and recalling his focus on the Golan Heights, it’s important to point out that Article 8.2 of the Russian-written draft constitution for Syria that was presented in early 2017 called for it to “denounce war as an infringement on other countries’ sovereignty and a means to resolve international conflicts.”
It wasn’t adopted, but the point is that Russia arguably envisaged Syria formally freezing its conflict with Israel over the Golan Heights indefinitely, pending a political resolution.
Putting everything together, Russia could play a huge role in resolving the Middle Eastern wars by leveraging its military and political influence over Syria, rooted in its anti-terrorist intervention over nine years ago to cut off Hezbollah’s Iranian arms imports via the Arab Republic.
This could proverbially kill two birds with one stone by maintaining the post-conflict status quo in Lebanon should the proposed plan for disarming Hezbollah be approved while also stabilizing the Golan Heights.
That outcome would align with some of the US’ top foreign policy priorities in the region, too, though Russian compliance might be dependent on the incoming Trump administration offering the Kremlin favorable terms for freezing the Ukrainian conflict.
Therefore, it’s possible that creative diplomacy between Russia, the US and Israel, with Benjamin Netanyahu acting as a possible mediator given his close ties with Putin and Trump, could help resolve both conflicts if the political will exists on all sides.
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