The terrorists’ window of opportunity will close when Trump is inaugurated
Seth J. Frantzman | November 6, 2024
A banner depicting Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei next to a ballistic missile in Baharestan Square in Tehran, Iran (Getty Images)
In the wake of the US election results, the clock is ticking for Iran and Iranian-backed terrorist groups such as Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis. The days between now and the President-elect Trump’s inauguration in January will be essential to watch as countries linked to Iran and the Iranian-backed terrorist groups begin to consider their options and how the US election may shift the outcomes they are expecting. They have got used to terrorising the Middle East and destabilising the world. The US election could cause them to de-escalate and declare ceasefires in the long term.
It might also lead them to take risks over the next two months. These groups and countries may react by sensing they have a narrow opportunity to carry out attacks or wrap up their wars. What this means is that Iran has been on a roll over the last several years. It benefited from a China-backed reconciliation agreement with Saudi Arabia. The Houthis in Yemen also benefited from this reconciliation, essentially cementing themselves in power in Yemen and building up their arsenal of deadly drones and missiles.
Iran set the region aflame using its proxies. It has hollowed out Iraq and filled it with various armed militias who have been attacking Israel with drones over the last year. Hezbollah has also been at war with Israel, prodded to attack Israel in October in the wake of the Hamas attack on October 7. The Hamas attack is the largest example of Iran’s sense that it could get away with all types of crimes. Iran, along with other countries such as Turkey and Qatar, have backed Hamas over the past year. Iran has also been providing Russia with kamikaze drones and has worked to increase ties to Moscow and Beijing.
These groups have believed over the last several years that they could keep pushing the envelope in the region. They felt there was a wind at their back as the world shifted from a US-led world order to one that is multi-polar and increasingly challenged by Russia and China. Hezbollah, for instance, threatened Israel into a maritime deal in 2022 that Israel was falsely told would bring stability and security. The Houthis assumed they could attack ships and block a major maritime route after the October 7 attacks because they believed the US and its allies in the region would appease them. The Houthis have been largely correct in this analysis. They have been appeased, suffering only minor pushback. The Biden administration talked tough but it wasn’t willing to go far enough to keep maritime trade corridors open. This was a major change from more than a century of US foreign policy that has focused on freedom of navigation, a key policy of US President Woodrow Wilson.
Iran still feels empowered. It has threatened more direct attacks on Israel. The sense in Iran and among Iranian proxies, friends and allies that time is on their side came amidst major shifts globally. Iran looked at the US withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 and the displacement of Armenians from Nagorna-Karabakh in 2023 and assumed it could do as it pleased.
Hamas, hosted by Doha, believed that the time was ripe in 2023 for its genocidal attack on October 7. It calculated that it could massacre 1,000 people and take 250 hostage, including numerous Americans and other foreign citizens, and face zero consequences. Hamas believed it could get away with October 7 and get Doha, a key US ally, and Iran to leverage that into a deal that would leave it in power in Gaza and bring it to power in the West Bank. Hezbollah believed it could rain down rockets on Israel. Iran felt it could launch hundreds of missiles at Israel.
Donald Trump’s victory may change this sense of impunity. It could set in motion several processes in the region. First, it could accelerate plans by Iran and its proxies to continue the war and chaos they unleashed on October 7. They may think they have another two months to increase attacks before their window of opportunity closes. However, they know they are being watched in Washington by the incoming US administration. They also know that Israel will not be restrained by the US. Iran and other anti-western countries and proxies have believed over the last decade that time is on their side. Do they think that the US election has changed the clock? This is the big question they will face in the next two months.
Seth J. Frantzman is the senior Middle East analyst for the Jerusalem Post, an adjunct Fellow at The Foundation for Defence of Democracies and author of The October 7 War: Israel’s Battle for Security in Gaza (2024)
READER –
You’re demented. You have a maggot in your brain telling you that Trump who loves Israel really hates it.
There are strong views here but remember we are in a state of confusion because the situation is changing very quickly. At best the horrors of the Dems are pushed back and also with that the neocons have taken a blow. I have often been genuinely scared as hell over the Dems looming nuclear threat. That at least is something. I have just lived through the Valencia flooding and Spain is in a new reality today. That does not necessarily bring knowledge though. It can as easily bring barbarism. Depends on role of humans.
@dreuveni
So, you think that when Biden forces Israel to surrender to terrorists, it is bad but when Trump does the same, it is good?
Why are you so happy that Trump means what he says?
He promised to keep defunding Social Security and Medicare thus endangering the lives of 60-70 million old people.
I am sure his administration will resume dismantling all the regulations it can lay its hands on.
He promised to cut taxes for the rich and the corporations, and his huge tariffs will raise the prices even more.
He listed all the minorities he is grateful to for his win except for the Jews – WHY?
He could have said simply – I wish to thank everybody who voted for me and thus assured my victory, then why instead of saying this did he have to go into details?
I am sure you can figure this out on your own.
I sure hope he will forget about his Deal of the Century thing.
After all this hot air about what Trump may or may not do for the Middle East, we should briefly reflect on this deal cooked by the OBiden regime that, shall I say encouraged?, Israel to give up part of its oil field in the Mediterranean. The Lebanese did not hold up their side of the deal to become peaceful. The deal should be immediately annulled to avoid providing any kind of lever to moving the border between Lebanon and Israel further south than the 1949 cease-fire line.
Indeed, after their behavior since October 8, 2023, they are left with one right – to surrender before even more death and damage takes place.
If those suffering from extensive TDS wake up for a moment, they might realize that he means what he says, and that covers also NATO. If you live in a rented home and don’t pay your rent, you expect to be thrown out, don’t you?
Trump is already restraining Israel, i.e., he is working toward Israel’s defeat under the guise of loving peace [emphasis mine]:
Very clever – if the US pushes Israel into ceasefire before the inauguration, Israel’s defeat will be blamed on Biden administration, and if not, Trump will say that only HE is capable of achieving peace in the Middle East.
But who does it is irrelevant, the main goal is to stop Israel yet again from defeating its enemies and to keep the fake conflict going in order to eventually destroy the Jewish state.
This is a comment (not mine) under
@Adam D
You mean there are so many of them there, another one won’t matter, even though the new one is one of the President’s closest relatives who is/was active in Lebanese politics on the side of Hizballah?
But Jews have nothing to fear because Trump is a man of principle and a staunch Israel supporter and, besides, he has Jewish grandchildren?
You have to decide whether having certain kinds of relatives matters or not because I see a contradiction here.
I didn’t hear the entirety of what Stone said, but he was referring to Pompeo’s view on foreign affairs and remarked about “forever wars”. I don’t know if he mentioned the other stuff you brought up regarding Pompeo.
@Laura
You explain that you do not suffer from TDS, and yet you give every indication to the contrary, such as giving Trump no credit for personal judgements while attributing his actions to instructions given to him from such wild cards as Roger Stone.
In fact, Roger Stone can claim what credit he likes, but it is quite silly to believe that Trump would ever have included Pompeo in his second administration, which is honestly unfortunate.
Mike Pompeo is a good ally to Israel, but he failed to be such an ally to Trump, as demonstrated when he remarked that had committed serious crimes and was guilty in the faux Classified Documents case which was ultimately dismissed. Being entrusted with a cabinet position requires a great deal of trust, and no rational person would maintain such trust with someone who advocated that you should be locked up for a crime which was not a crime, particularly when that crime was exclusively invented and singularly enforced against just one person, such as was the case with the phony Documents case against Trump. It is regretful that Pompeo acted so recklessly, especially as he never had a chance in the primary in any event. There are other issues which are attached to Pompeo as well, such as his having appointed Haskell as his successor to lead the CIA when she had headed the CIA in London when the Russia Hoax was being cooked up and instituted.
As to Rubio, he was a member of the Gang of Eight which published a report which suggested that there was evidence of Russian collusion in the Russia Hoax when they knew damned well that this was never true.
The president NEEDS to appoint people whom he can trust, and of course people with whom he made bargains to win the election. Pompeo fulfilled neither of these qualifications with respect to Trump, but it remains to be seen if Rubio might fulfill the later qualification, even as he fails to fulfill the former one.
Honestly, anyone, including what you decribe as “so-called “establishment” Republicans”, connected to the frauds which have been perpetrated against Trump should be disqualified from serving in the Trump administration, not because they betrayed Trump, but because they betrayed the American people as they allied with themselves with the radical Dems. This was true of those who aided the Russia Hoax, the Impeachment fiascos, the election fraud, the January 6 psyop, and the weaponizing of lawfare to prevent Trump from running in the election which he just overwhelmingly won. What is more is that when allies of Israel took part in such skullduggery to overcome the will of the American people, they betrayed their alliance with Israel, as pro-Israel will of the American people was never better represented than when Trump was in power.
Reader, there are already more than one Hizbollah and Hamas agents in the White House. And many in the State Department, the DoD, and the CIA as well. This administration is very close to Iran, Also to China, which is aligned with both Iran and its terrorist proteges. Biden’s national security advisor, Jake Sullivan, has bee a supporter and friend of Iran for years. So has his Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken.
I was listening to sleazeball Roger Stone who has a local talk radio show. He revealed that he told Trump not to trust Mike Pompeo. Pompeo is a good man and very pro-Israel. Now I know why this morning Trump announced that neither Pompeo nor Nikki Haley will be part of his administration. This reveals who has Trump’s ear and it appears to be the isolationist types. He is being told not to trust the so-called “establishment” Republicans, but those are the ones who are pro-Israel. I expect him NOT to appoint Marco Rubio as Secretary of State even though we’ve been hearing his name bandied about for that position. We shall see who he appoints regarding foreign affairs. That will give us a clue as to his policy on Israel.
LAURA-
I actually knew this and looked him up when he was in the news. He is a Christian with strong influence over certain groups connected to Hezballah. Well Trump is a Christian too,
It doesn’t negate the 60+ years of close Israeli support begun by Fred Trump and carried on to this day by Donald.
That’s a very good position for a Lebanese Christian to be in , and it can help Trump a lot both with money and influence.
That family is far more American- Lebanese than Lebanese–American.
@Adam D
Could we acquire a Hizballah plant in the White House soon?
Lebanese Politics is extremely volitile, and alliances sometimes undergo 180 degree turns. One Christian leader, a former President of Lebanon, has been an ally of Syria for several years, even though Syrian solders executed (murder) 1,200 of his soldiers after they surrendered to the Syrians at the end of the most recent Lebanese civil war. (He and his soldiers were part of with the Phalangist party at the time. A little like gangster wars in the United States, where alliances can also undergo 189 degree shifts at times.
How interesting – Massad Boulos is his father-in-law (thank you, Laura)!
More of the same stuff:
https://duckduckgo.com/?t=ftsa&q=Debbie+Schlussel+June+23+%C2%B7+Tiffany+Trump%E2%80%99s+billionaire+father-in-law+Massad+Boulos+ran+for+Lebanese+Parliament&ia=web
Edgar, Trump’s other daughter, Tiffany married a Lebanese man:
READER-
Yes Trump is a deal maker, but you DO know-which you neglect to admit- that he is a whole lot more.
The deals he makes are ONLY to benefit the USA and it’s Allies…such as Israel.
The Trump family CLOSE connection, going back 60 years or so, is far too close to even try to deny, so DON’T bother trying………!!
@peloni
Right now Hochstein is working hard on Israel-Lebanon ceasefire and on stopping Israel from attacking the military installations in Lebanon in exchange for empty promises from Hizballah.
As far as what Trump is going to do, let us wait and see.
However, to me the following is a bad sign:
@Reader
@Laura
The basic premise of your “concerns” here lie in the suggestion that Trump will support Hochstein making a deal in which territory in the North, which Trump recognized as Israeli territory in 2018, will be ceded back to Hezbollah controlled Lebanon and that this deal will be forced on Israel by Trump. Note that not only would this be Trump 2024 certifying as illegitimate that which Trump 2018 certified as legitimate, but also that Trump would be awarding this land to Hezbollah controlled Lebanon when Trump has called for Israel to hurry up and finish destroying Hezbollah. Hence, I think it is fair to suggest that there is more than a single leap of logic in the foundation of your ‘concerns’.
Furthermore, the suggestion that ‘Trump is all about making deals with our enemies’ is not based in fact, but rather in TDS. In fact the most propitious, the most significant, and the most enduring deals which Trump made in his first term were in fact made with Israel, not “our enemies”.
One more thing. @Reader states below that
This is utterly false. Hezbollah is not a legitimate party any more than Lebanon is a functioning democracy.
READER-
You keep raising unlikely “suspicions”, and then say “I hope I’m wrong”.
Is this a kind of masochism? You seem to soak it up.
@Laura
I also hope that my suspicions will be proven unfounded.
Trump is all about making deals, period, however, the above is also the longstanding policy of the US and Europe, so I expect his administration to have the ME policy which is no different.
This is a logical question but you are dealing with answers which are based on emotions.
As far as I know, Hizballah is a legitimate party in Lebanon’s parliament, and, if so, Israel is actually at war with Lebanon itself as long as Lebanon doesn’t mind one of its parties doubling up as a terrorist entity shooting barrages of rockets at Israel.
Well, I have no idea but I know for sure that the only reason Lebanon is negotiating with Hochstein is in order “to get back” parts of Israel’s North.
This is why this “humanitarian evacuation” of the North of Israel looked to me in the beginning as the creation of no-man’s land in the North – “ending the war by diplomatic means” is a euphemism for “Israel’s painful concessions”.
I hope I was wrong and Hochstein gets out of there ASAP if Trump lets him.
dreuveni.
Yes you’re right. But I’m not a”believer”. The Moshiach Doctrine is pure fantasy and wishful thinking made of “whole cloth”.
I’ve described it’s origin and progress several times on this site, the most recent just a week or two ago.
My point about the Iranian Mullahs is that it is THEY alone in Iran who stick firmly to this dreamy fog, the people are mostly modern. .
And fanaticism in it’s worst form as in The Mullahs, can only lead to disaster for those involved, I hope ONLY those old Whiskery gents.
May I assume that your ref. to “100 years after 30 CE. is about Bar Kocheba ???…HE certainly was no “Star coming out of Jacob”…NO…!!
Shabtai was even 100 times worse, a genuine charlatan.
You recall in the Pesach Haggadah the comment to Akiba of Rabbi ben Torta. Well I SECOND that strongly.
@Edgar G. Everybody is waiting for the Messiah, Moschiach, Mahdi to come. They all know he will appear, and like the Jews in the 100 years after AD30, hope that their prefered appearance will fulfill all their aspirations.
Laura-
You’re repeating one of the purveyors of Fake News. Trump, as well as Israel KNOWS that the Mullahs are rigidly ruling according to Sharia.
Also they have a doctrine that if they plunge the world into chaos, a creature they call The 12th Imam will arise or return , rule the world and “Peace” will escend over everyone .
Like an Islamic Moshiach, but “peaceful” instead of martial.
@Laura
Trump has never wanted regime change, and he has always wanted peace, but the peace which Trump is pushing requires Iran to forego all efforts towards its nuclear aims, which it has all but achieved. He isn’t looking to cover over Iran’s nuclear capabilities as were the Obiden cronies, as Trump wants to secure American safety rather than simply avoiding conflicts, though if he can have both he will pursue such a path. The problem is that Iran will not forgo its nuclear ambitions, and Trump won’t turn a blind eye to these ambitions being maintained. So, the claims being made by you that Trump isn’t interested in regime change and wanting peace, betrays the full reality of what Trump demands of Iran to avoid the American stick, so to speak. What is more, Trump has no interest in occupying Iran any more so than does Israel, and Iran currently stands completely vulnerable to attacks which will leave it economically bereft and militarily crippled. The question remains whether this will be enough to topple the Mullahs. Most sources are in agreement that it will, but some say not. Either way, it will leave Iran incapable of feeding its proxy armies, and if Iran’s nuclear program is also targeted, it will leave Iran financially incapable of rebuilding its nuclear program as well.
We will see what comes next, but if someone believes that Trump is willing to “make a deal” which leaves Iran with any aspect of a nuclear program, there is simply no other excuse than that they are suffering from TDS.
Although given that Iran tried to kill him, hopefully Trump has since changed his mind about regime change.
2 weeks ago on the weekend edition of the morning show FOX and Friends stated by anti-Israel commentator Rachel Compos Duffy according to one of her sources. She said someone she talked to told her that Trump is not interested in regime change, he wants peace.
Reader, I warned folks here only to be dismissed as having TDS which I don’t. I want very much for my worries and suspicions to be proven unfounded. I told you Trump is all about making deals with our enemies, not in thoroughly destroying our enemies. If we are going to condemn Biden and Harris for calling for a ceasefire, how is Trump calling for making a deal with Lebanon any different? Lebanon is not going to be an obstacle to hezbollah. We already had resolution 1701 which was never enforced. What kind of deal is Trump expecting?
Extremely concerning.
Laura-
Where did you read/hear that Trump opposes regime change in Iran??
This is a surprise to me-even though I don’t follow current news..
Is Trump aware that Hochstein’s negotiations center on Israel ceding some of its land to Lebanon or is he merely trying to show off?
I hope you are right, but Trump opposes regime change in Tehran. I hope at least he’ll let Israel take out Iran’s nukes.