The terrorists’ window of opportunity will close when Trump is inaugurated
Seth J. Frantzman | November 6, 2024
A banner depicting Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei next to a ballistic missile in Baharestan Square in Tehran, Iran (Getty Images)
In the wake of the US election results, the clock is ticking for Iran and Iranian-backed terrorist groups such as Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis. The days between now and the President-elect Trump’s inauguration in January will be essential to watch as countries linked to Iran and the Iranian-backed terrorist groups begin to consider their options and how the US election may shift the outcomes they are expecting. They have got used to terrorising the Middle East and destabilising the world. The US election could cause them to de-escalate and declare ceasefires in the long term.
It might also lead them to take risks over the next two months. These groups and countries may react by sensing they have a narrow opportunity to carry out attacks or wrap up their wars. What this means is that Iran has been on a roll over the last several years. It benefited from a China-backed reconciliation agreement with Saudi Arabia. The Houthis in Yemen also benefited from this reconciliation, essentially cementing themselves in power in Yemen and building up their arsenal of deadly drones and missiles.
Iran set the region aflame using its proxies. It has hollowed out Iraq and filled it with various armed militias who have been attacking Israel with drones over the last year. Hezbollah has also been at war with Israel, prodded to attack Israel in October in the wake of the Hamas attack on October 7. The Hamas attack is the largest example of Iran’s sense that it could get away with all types of crimes. Iran, along with other countries such as Turkey and Qatar, have backed Hamas over the past year. Iran has also been providing Russia with kamikaze drones and has worked to increase ties to Moscow and Beijing.
These groups have believed over the last several years that they could keep pushing the envelope in the region. They felt there was a wind at their back as the world shifted from a US-led world order to one that is multi-polar and increasingly challenged by Russia and China. Hezbollah, for instance, threatened Israel into a maritime deal in 2022 that Israel was falsely told would bring stability and security. The Houthis assumed they could attack ships and block a major maritime route after the October 7 attacks because they believed the US and its allies in the region would appease them. The Houthis have been largely correct in this analysis. They have been appeased, suffering only minor pushback. The Biden administration talked tough but it wasn’t willing to go far enough to keep maritime trade corridors open. This was a major change from more than a century of US foreign policy that has focused on freedom of navigation, a key policy of US President Woodrow Wilson.
Iran still feels empowered. It has threatened more direct attacks on Israel. The sense in Iran and among Iranian proxies, friends and allies that time is on their side came amidst major shifts globally. Iran looked at the US withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 and the displacement of Armenians from Nagorna-Karabakh in 2023 and assumed it could do as it pleased.
Hamas, hosted by Doha, believed that the time was ripe in 2023 for its genocidal attack on October 7. It calculated that it could massacre 1,000 people and take 250 hostage, including numerous Americans and other foreign citizens, and face zero consequences. Hamas believed it could get away with October 7 and get Doha, a key US ally, and Iran to leverage that into a deal that would leave it in power in Gaza and bring it to power in the West Bank. Hezbollah believed it could rain down rockets on Israel. Iran felt it could launch hundreds of missiles at Israel.
Donald Trump’s victory may change this sense of impunity. It could set in motion several processes in the region. First, it could accelerate plans by Iran and its proxies to continue the war and chaos they unleashed on October 7. They may think they have another two months to increase attacks before their window of opportunity closes. However, they know they are being watched in Washington by the incoming US administration. They also know that Israel will not be restrained by the US. Iran and other anti-western countries and proxies have believed over the last decade that time is on their side. Do they think that the US election has changed the clock? This is the big question they will face in the next two months.
Seth J. Frantzman is the senior Middle East analyst for the Jerusalem Post, an adjunct Fellow at The Foundation for Defence of Democracies and author of The October 7 War: Israel’s Battle for Security in Gaza (2024)
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