Peloni: I would like to draw attention to the valuable conversation included below this post as well as that included at the bottom of Israel Bowed Again, just as I would like to thank the contributing views which have been shared on this topic. In any war, the line between victory and defeat is both very fine as it is also very subtle. Notably, we are quite fortunate to have a man with the perseverance, spirit and vigor which are embodied in PM Netanyahu, as well as his keen political and strategic perspectives. His steady judgement informed reflection will be the determining factor of bringing this war to a successful conclusion, just as it has served to bring us thus far in savaging the savages which are now being pressed further than ever from the gates of Israel. Hence, while the comments demonstrate a variety of views on what the limit of Israel’s recent strike on Iran might portend, I think we are all agreed that an honest appreciation of the successes of that strike as well as the limits of that strike in combination with the opportunity costs of each should be carefully weighed and reflected upon. This formed the basis having posted the series of commentaries on this topic, even as there still remains some debate as to how far Israel should have gone in this strike amid the lifting fog of war which is revealing the many great successes which were achieved due to the daring spirit and capabilities of the IDF as guided by Bibi’s directives.
**Mark Zell’s related tweet is included below Wurmser’s article.
David Wurmser | October 27, 2024
An Israeli Air Force fighter jet taking off for a mission. Credit: IAF.
Based on very initial knowledge and limited information, I would conclude the following results of Israel’s three-wave Oct. 26 strike on Iran, which were partly strategic, but mostly tactical:
- Israel finally broke the aura of Iranian invincibility. It dispelled the 30-year obsession in the West that a strike would have apocalyptic consequences, and established precedent for hitting Iran directly. This is no small thing, and lifts an analytical and policy straight-jacket that paralyzed Israel and others for decades. Iran has been exposed as weak; its bluffs and bluster called. The emperor has only old, threadbare underwear. Not quite nude, but close.
- Israel started normalizing striking Iran in the same way that, over the years, Israeli strikes on Syria have become routine and barely noticed.
- Israel set itself up well for a strike that truly devastates the Iranian regime in the unlikely event that it responds.
- Israel showed itself to be a tactical genius and a military power rivaled by none in competence—a true pride of the Jewish people.
On the negative side of the ledger, the bottom line represents a failed strategic result, for the following reasons:
- The United States wanted Israel to hit mostly that which is aligned with what the administration defines as U.S. priorities: anything that helps to harm Russia’s war against Ukraine. Those sites were, in fact, hit.
- ?Israel limited itself to those sites and the ones that Israel needs to strike in order to operate over Iran. Those sites, namely anti-aircraft, were hit.
- Israel did not hit any site that hurts Iran’s regime and could lead to escalation as defined by Iran’s pre-strike chest-thumping: nuclear, oil, infrastructure, regime figures or symbolic targets.
- So after a year in which Iran and its proxies killed 2,000 Israelis; destroyed up to 60% of cities in the north; sent 250,000 Israelis to be internal refugees; launched a global campaign of Nazi-level antisemitism; launched 600 missiles and drones into Israel; shut down half of Israel’s ports and caused all international airlines to indefinitely stop flying to Israel; tried to kill several of the most senior Israeli officials; and sent a drone to hit the sitting prime minister’s house, Israel launches a strike that protects Ukraine but leaves everything else untouched.
- In other words, after a month of bluster that Israel will change the face of the Middle East, it appears to have returned to the Oct. 6 strategic concept of “we showed them” and deterrence, rather than conducting a strike that shakes the foundations of the Iranian regime and maintains strategic strategic momentum. Instead, it let the United States finally achieve its goal of strategically leashing Israel and forcing it back essentially into a strategically reactive, de-escalatory posture.
- Israel thus let Iran’s chest thumping, which was designed to panic Washington, succeed in reshaping Israel’s reaction—in essence, giving Iran control over what Israel would hit.
- The key strategic gain Israel had in the last months was that it brought “victory” as understood in terms of regional culture and grasp— that Israel had “lost it,” was “possessed by the jinn” and the master of the house went crazy. But that concept, appropriate for the region, was traded in again for a failed Western understanding of conflict management—“Restraint is strength,” “We showed them,” “Iran got the message”—deterrence.
- In short, Iran, whose entire strategy is based on manipulation, chess and using your soul as a weapon against you—all of which depend on your being rational, predictable and manipulatable—used the power of the U.S. as Israel’s strategic Achilles heel to transform the strategic reality of defeat, retreat and fear it faced in the last two months as Israel has become a dangerous uncontrollable and unpredictable force into a successful effort to return Israel into a controllable, reactive and manipulatable position. From there, Iran now can reassert its domination over setting the agenda; manipulate events to reverse its retreat; return the strategic momentum it had lost; and enter a long-range confrontation with Israel on its terms.
- Regionally, Israel no longer appears to be the strong horse that can replace indispensable U.S. power, but instead has reverted to being a dependent U.S. vassal in terms of strategic behavior. Everyone knows this was not the strike Israel needed and could have executed, but that it was the strike that Washington imposed.
- Israel’s limiting its strike undermines chances for real peace with Saudi Arabia. The Saudis were looking for a strong horse that replaces U.S. power. Instead, they see now that Israel is nothing more than an American vassal—which is useless to them.
I realize this is harsh. I realize Iran may strike back, so Israel might have a second chance. But it’s doubtful that Iran will take the bait.
Israel’s strike is a form of strategic victory for Iran in regional terms, no matter how much our Western minds try to rationalize it as an objective show of strength. Iran will far more likely respond in ways that continue to reassert its manipulative control over events, rather than lash out in a way that allows Israel a second chance.
In conclusion, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered this strike under withering pressure from every direction inside Israel and from abroad. The leaked plans, hostile demeanor and slightly veiled threats coming from Israel’s key ally and soul-mate, the United States, were wounds that are not easily dismissed.
Israel has a small population, less than a 10th of Iran’s, while fighting an eight-front war alone and with its allies slowly choking off its arms supply. It must look over its shoulder at international institutions that are engage in lawfare to annihilate it, and is plagued by an unimaginative defense establishment that suffers deeply from the Western malady of having forgotten the meaning of victory in war.
So, Israel not only acted alone, but with a strong headwind from every direction, even that of its allies. Netanyahu’s perseverance despite these forces of sabotage will earn him a hallowed place in history. He has emerged as the only leader in power with such vision and resolve to defend Western civilization.
But a sober analysis must identify and overcome the internal forces and hopefully still deliver the strategic victory that, at this point, only Netanyahu has the talent to properly grasp and achieve.
Mark Zell tweeted the following:
It pains me to repost this tweet by @Wurmserscribit, but it sums up eloquently and comprehensively what I have been saying all day today, after the IDF announced that it completed Operation Days of Repentance. My only hope is that a GOP victory on November 5th will flip the scales and allow Israel to do what has to be done to remove the Iranian threat from Israel, America and the West.
“The bottom line as far as I am concerned:
1. The U.S. wanted Israel to hit mostly what is aligned with what this administration defines as U.S. priorities, which is anything that helps to harm Russia’s war against Ukraine. Those sites were, in fact hit.
2. ?That Israel limit itself to only those sites and the sites that Israel operationally needs to strike to operate over Iran. Those sites, namely anti-aircraft, were hit.
3. ?That Israel NOT hit any site that hurts Iran’s regime and could lead to escalation as defined by Iran’s pre-strike chest-thumping: nuclear, oil, infrastructure, regime figures or symbolic targets. Those site were in fact NOT hit.
4. ?So after a year in which Iran and its proxies killed 2000 Israelis, destroyed up to 60% of cities in the north, sent 250,000 Israelis to be internal refugees, launched a global campaign of Nazi-level anti semitism, sent 600 missiles and drones into Israel, shut down half of Israel’s ports and caused all international airlines to indefinitely stop flying to Israel, tried to kill several of the most senior Israeli officials, sent a drone to hit the sitting Prime Minister’s house … Israel launches a strike that protects Ukraine but leaves everything else untouched.
5. ?So after a month of bluster that Israel will change the face of the Middle East, Israel returns to the October 6 strategic concept of “we showed them” and deterrence rather than conduct a strike that shakes the foundations of the Iranian regime and maintain strategic strategic momentum. Instead, it let the United States finally achieve its goal of strategically leashing Israel and forcing it back essentially into a strategically reactive, deescalatory posture.
6. ?In fact, it let Iran’s chest thumping, which was designed to panic Washington, to succeed in reshaping Israel’s reaction — in essence giving Iran control over what Israel would hit.
7. ?The key strategic gain Israel had in the last months that was bringing victory as understood in terms of regional culture and understanding — that Israel had “lost it” and was “possessed by the Jinn” (???????) and the master of the house went crazy (??? ???? ?????) — was traded in for again a failed Western understanding of conflict management — “restraint is strength”, “we showed them”, Iran got the message”, deterrence.
8. ?In short, Iran, whose entire strategy is based on manipulation, chess and using your soul as a weapon against you — all of which depends on your being rational, predictable and manipulate-able— used the power of the U.S. as Israel’s strategic Achilles heal to transform the strategic reality of defeat, retreat and fear it faced in the last two months as Israel has become a dangerous uncontrollable and unpredictable force into a successful effort to return Israel into a controllable, reactive, and manipulate-able position. From there iran now can reassert its domination over setting the agenda and manipulate events to reverse its retreat and return the strategic momentum it had lost back to itself and enter a long range confrontation with Israel on its terms.
9. ?Regionally, Israel no longer appears to be the strong horse that can replace indispensable U.S. power, but instead has reverted to being a dependent U.S. vassal in terms of strategic behavior.
I realize this is harsh, but Israel blew it. I realize Iran may strike back, so israel might have a second chance, but I am doubtful. Israel’s strike is a form of strategic victory for Iran in regional terms , not matter how much our western minds try to rationalize it as an objective show of strength. Iran will respond thus will far more likely respond in ways that continue to reassert its manipulative control over events rather than lash out in a way that allows Israel a second chance.”
…I support PM Netanyahu fully, but it is clear to everyone here in Israel, that tge Harris-Biden strongly influenced Israel to downgrade its targets in Iran because of the US elections.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made it clear earlier today that the decision to not launch Strikes against Iranian Nuclear, Oil, or Energy Facilities was made by Israeli Officials, and not decided by the United States; with him further having stating that these Targets… pic.twitter.com/9CPJtYxE41
— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) October 26, 2024
@Laura
It is Trump’s nature to accept support from a large swath of supporters. However, just as he openly accepted support from transgender and homosexuals back in 2016, he was not swayed to support the radical agenda which the Dems chose to pursue in supporting the same group, and instead utterly opposed such madness. You have a poor opinion of Trump, and it seems to entirely colors your perception of the man. He does in fact have values which guide his policy, even if some, perhaps yourself included, are blind to them, and it is these values which have thus far guided him and the agenda he has pursued. This is why the US embassy is in Jerusalem, and why the Jews are a protected class under Title VI. It is why he threatened NATO to pay their fair share, and why he tried to come to terms with North Korea instead of making war with them. These are not the work products of a whimsical choice based on the efforts of flatterers and sycophants as you suggest, but of honest policy initiatives, all of which aligned with and emerged from Trump’s own values.
I don’t disagree with what you are saying here. There is however an antisemitic minority like fucker carlson and Candace Owens which cannot be ignored. And whether you want to acknowledge it or not, he’s been courting muslim voters. In his defense and contrary to what the left claims, Trump is open and accepting to all kinds of people and he could be fooled into believing these muslims are “moderate” and patriotic. I don’t trust any muslims. Trump’s ego also causes him to embrace anyone who flatters him.
Laura, When I first looked at DS Twitter page I was not impressed. it is harder to follow. But after spending some time reading her DS.com account, I retract my liberal comment. I spoke prematurely. I do not have time now but I hope to spend more time reading her post. thanks for pointing out her perspective.
Laura, from my position anyone who cannot understand that God’s hand has to be behind Trump is leaning further away from God/Center then they are leaning toward God. We all here can flip a coin and guess what will happen in the next 9 days or 2 months. Here is my guess as for the Jewish people in America. First off, The Jews in America are getting ready to leave and go back to Israel. They are being given the opportunity to choose how they go. Just like all non-Jews are being given the opportunity to choose how they are going to respond to this exodus of Jews out of America. Second point: If Trump wins the election, the way will be easier and less painful. If Harris wins, the way will be harder and more painful. But they are leaving, and they will be going home to Israel, how many and how fast, only God knows. Who was it that said, “You can go the easy way or the hard way, but you’re going!” I remember now, that was my mother as she tugged on my ear. Antisemitism is on the rise; history tells us when AS goes up- Jews flee. Where they gonna go? HOME. Why do I say this, Because the Bible tells me so!
A Rabbi friend and I was talking politics and the election. His bottom line. “People better look at the candidate and ask-vote- for the one that will be best for Israel.
@Laura
I agree that she is not liberal. The opponents of Trump lie on both the Right and the Left, but the zany insults and gross overstatements of half truths to produce the support of their animus against Trump do indicate a common denominator between these two groups whose rhetoric too well resembles each other.
More specifically, I see you still have not contested the criticisms which I raised below regarding what you posted.
Once again, you ignore the philosemetic nature of both Trump and his base, and by smearing them both with the same brush which addresses the rampant antisemitism among the Dems does you no credit, while it serves to belittle the very real threat which is today being promoted across the US and the world, not by Trump and his base, but by the Dems and their donors and supporters.
Israeli Jews in the vast majority recongize that Trump was the best POTUS ever for Israel. He also would be a million miles better for Israel than Harris.
Trump, now has said he thinks Israel should destroy Iran’s nuke facilities as opposed to Biden/Harris and company.
Clearly sooner than later Israel needs to destroy the nuke facilities for its own sake plus the rest of the world, whether they recognize the danger to all from crazy Mullah’s have nukes is a disaster waiting to occur.
Liberal? Hardly. Go and actually read what she writes. Just as there is TDS, there exists the opposite, which is that Trump can do no wrong. People who raise a single concern about him are denounced as RINO’s or “liberals” even if they are more conservative than Trump, who actually isn’t conservative. Of course, you won’t address the issue of Trump courting muslim voters in Michigan.
It won’t be long before both parties are beholden to the political power of muslims in America who will quickly outnumber Jews. American Jews will then be in the position of European Jews with nowhere to turn to.
Proud American, Jew. Conservative. Writer. Attorney. Movie Critic/Cultural Observer. Investigative Journalist. Terrorism Expert. Pro-Israel. JD. MBA. UMich Grad. Sister Debbie S…. Not impressed with the opinion of another liberal Jew that cannot see the facts that are all around them. Even more so, when they are highly educated.
Mr. LeonK, now this gentleman has his eyes wide open. We must remember all the nations and Iran are but a tool in the hand of God. Assyria, In Isaiah 10:5-19. Assyria was called to do a job and they overstepped their bounds and verse 16, we find out what happened to them. One thing we must keep in mind, In the prophet Isaiah’s views of history It can be analyzed into, The divine design and the co-efficient of arbitrary human power. That’s a quote from Gerard Von Rad. We have front row seats as we watch God’s hand at work as history plays out.
Hi, Leon
I agree. I believe Bibi Netanyahu and Donald Trump are both anointed by God to the positions they are in (and, in President Trump’s case, likely will be in as #47). Unfortunately, there is grounds to believe theyboth will ultimately be assassinated.
It is also certain, that God will win.
I disagree entirely with the premise presented that Israel somehow blew it or that Israel (Bibi) bowed down to the Biden regime.
As far as I’m aware, none of us are military experts here but from what I read, Israel executed this perfectly. They cleared the path to Iran for future attacks by knocking out strategic targets like radars and anti-aircraft batteries in Syria, Iraq and of course in Iran. They hit some serious and important targets within Iran and as always used this as a test exercise for down the road. Sending 100 jets over 1000 miles over enemy territory to do pinpoint attacks in Iran and returning them all safely is by all accounts amazing.
Do I wish that Israel would once and for all wipe out all of Iran’s nuclear sites and destroy their oil refineries and ports? Of course. But blowing up their nuclear sites could cause an immense nuclear radioactive cloud that could fly back to Israel. Blowing up their oil would undoubtably cause the world price of oil to skyrocket and thus play havoc with the price of oil world wide. This would not bode well for Israel.
I have complete faith in Bibi and others there. They know exactly what they are doing. We are not in the loop and therefore do not.
Of course brilliant Bibi is outwardly trying to appease Biden as he must. But in actual fact he is doing what’s best for Israel.
I like that he announced to the world that Israel is done attacking Iran for now and they are not seeking further conflict. This was done in order to make clear to the world and the US in particular that they ‘followed Biden’s orders’ and are done. When Iran fires back (and they surely will because that’s what they do), Israel can then proceed by attacking any target of their choice. Although Iran is of course still very dangerous, after this latest attack by Israel, Iran is more vulnerable today than they have been in decades.
Finally Israel is in a strategically fantastic position vis a vis Iran. They have proved to the world that was always so bloody negative about any chances of success that the IDF would have in any conflict. They gave Israel no chance to defeat Hamas in those booby trapped tunnels. They said that Hezbolla is a hardened battle ready army with a gizzillion missiles ready to fire into Israel and Israel cannot stop them. Finally they said that Iran aided by it’s friendly Arab states, Russia, China, North Korea, Europe and the current US government can’t be stopped by tiny Israel on her own. Israel just proved otherwise.
I have faith in the G-d of Israel who will help us as long as we try to help ourselves and behave properly. Iran is going down and there is nothing they can do about it. I suggest that you all encourage Bibi and the current Israeli right wing government and enjoy the show. I wouldn’t want to be living in Iran right now….
These aren’t my words but what Debbie Schlussel has said gives me cause for concern. She’s been way ahead of the curve on several matters like Candace Owens and fucker Carlson long before other conservatives caught on. I would seriously consider what she’s saying. Why is he even courting muslims and what’s he telling them to get their votes? Is he just another politician who says to whoever he’s addressing what they want to hear? If so, he’s no different than any establishment politician.
@Laura
Wrong. His record remains unsurpassed in this and many other regards.
Wrong. He has promised to keep the American Jews safe, and to protect Israel as well.
The Jews who fail to appreciate the ally which they have in Trump and instead vote for his antisemitic opponents carry not just the blame of their actions but the shame of it as well.
To color Jews on the Left and the Right with the same brush demonstrates a poorly informed opinion about what motivates or characterizes either one.
So you share that this fellow is an antisemite and anti-Israel and then quote him as if his rhetoric were not fake news motivated from what you have stated? It is not as if the conversation was not aired for the world to hear.
https://x.com/DebbieSchlussel/status/1850536227306352761
@Linda
Mark Zell is the Vice President and General Counsel of Republicans Overseas
It is David Wurmser, with whom I am sure you are familiar.
https://x.com/DebbieSchlussel/status/1850542331918725494
Perhaps Israel is waiting until after our election. If Harris wins, Israel will deliver a big blow to Iran, including its nuclear sites.
I don’t know Mark Zell, and I have no idea who Wurmsurscribit is, but I do know who Benjamin Netanyahu is, and I believe him when he says that Israel decided which targets to hit, not the Biden regime. I agree with John Galt IV below, and I have reposted my reasons which were originally posted in response to yesterday’s Israpundit article, “Israel Bowed Again.”
“It seems to me that Netanyahu chose the timing of this retaliatory attack very carefully. He has demonstrated that Israel is capable of taking out any site of its choosing inside Iran. The Ayatollah is praying to Allah and the Democrats that the pro-Iran Harris/Walz ticket can steal the 2024 election. Freedom lovers around the world are praying that the pro-Israel Trump/Vance ticket prevails. The world is waiting and watching to see what happens because this is the most consequential election for America and the free world since America’s founding. For freedom lovers war is always the last resort, but freedom requires the iron will to fight for freedom when necessary. Donald Trump is Israel’s best American friend, but ultimately Israel must fight to win this war with or without the aid of the United States.” In my opinion, Israel remains unbowed.
Let’s try something else:
Israel is planning a longer campaign against Iran, just like against Hamas in Gaza and hopefully against Hezbollah in Lebanon.
If so, how is that accomplished?
1) Figure out what Defensive Measures Iran can bring against an air campaign as Israel is NOT invading Iran with soldiers.
2) Take out their air defenses.
3) While you are at it take out any offensive progams like Iran’s missiles.
3) From what I have read that is exactly what Israel did. They took out the production sites of fuel for their rockets.
4) Then strike by strike take out one IRGC military “system” after another and also try to cripple Iran’s economy.
5) If what I read and listen to is correct this strike was the first of many. If not then the IDF is missing the greatest opportunity against Iran it is ever likely to get.
Pray for Israel and pray it makes the right decisions. Its people expect nothing less.
Consider the inability (or unwillingness) of the most powerful navy in the world to keep shipping lanes open by not stopping the Houthi rebels. The US reacts with “proportional” responses which, to date, have accomplished little. The Biden Administration expects Israel to act similarly with symbolic responses, responses that fail to cause economic damage and telegraph lack of resolve.
Perhaps Israel has no choice in the matter. Trump advised Israel to go after the Iranian nuclear sites. Despite his preference to “cut a deal,” I think he can see the importance of not letting Iran cross the nuclear threshold. Hopefully, Trump will be President again. If that does not happen, Israel will face a nuclear Iran.