Peloni: The overlordship to which the Harris administration has subjected Israel throughout this war must come to an end. If Kamala’s collectivist cabal is incapable of leading the world against the Iranian menace, Israel will have to act alone, as if its very survival is dependent upon their achieving a devastating and absolute victory over the Mullas, because in fact it does. There can be no pandering to American demands to halt, nor inclusive of American ambitions of preserving the Iranian menace. October 7 demonstrated the folly of failing to recognize and act on these realities.
Four more years of phobia about escalation would make the world a more dangerous place.
By Shay Khatiri | WSJ |
Vice President Kamala Harris meets with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Washington, July 25.
When it comes to war, President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris couldn’t be more self-contradictory. They talk about their unwavering commitments to the defense of Israel and Ukraine, but they hedge by trying to restrain Israelis and Ukrainians.
After the Israel Defense Forces killed Hezbollah honcho Hassan Nasrallah, Ms. Harris issued a three-paragraph statement. She expressed support for Israel and condemned Nasrallah. The beginning of the last paragraph was the most predictable: “President Biden and I do not want to see conflict in the Middle East escalate into a broader regional war.”
Fears of escalation have been a theme of the Biden-Harris administration. Such fears have contributed to the current stalemate in Ukraine. Out of concern for escalation, the U.S. has delivered advanced weapons too late and denied Ukraine permission to attack Russian supply lines inside Russia.
Israelis have faced a similar challenge. The Biden-Harris administration prevented them from acting sooner in Lebanon. It tried to prevent Israel from moving into Rafah. Ms. Harris predicted that a Rafah operation would be a humanitarian disaster because she claimed she had “studied the maps.”
In every case these fears have proved baseless. When Ms. Harris issued a statement celebrating the death of Oct. 7 mastermind Yahya Sinwar, she omitted that Israel had ignored her persistent calls for a cease-fire. In fact, she restated that call, apparently undeterred by having gotten it so wrong for so long.
Carl von Clausewitz, the German military theorist, observed that the nature of war is dual: It pulls you simultaneously in opposite extremes, to escalate in pursuit of victory and to de-escalate fearing annihilation. For Mr. Biden and Ms. Harris, this is half true: They are pulled only to de-escalate.
The Biden-Harris administration is simultaneously obsessed with and ignorant about escalation. Game theorist Thomas Schelling, a pioneer in escalation studies, observed that deterrence relies on a threat that leaves something to chance. Mr. Biden and Ms. Harris don’t like taking chances—thus leaving the decision about whether to escalate entirely to the other side. This is especially silly as both Russia and Iran are inferior powers to the U.S.
The current administration is extremely risk-averse. It rarely threatens adversaries to deter them, and it often folds to enemy threats. Ms. Harris recently refused to endorse a military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Even Barack Obama would typically say publicly that all options were “on the table.”
Strategy is an art, not a science. A good strategy develops organically based on lessons learned throughout the prosecution of war. Adaptation is the highest strategic virtue, which the current administration utterly lacks.
The administration is incapable of learning from either its rare successes or typical mistakes. Despite pleas from the British and French governments, the Biden-Harris administration won’t allow Ukraine to hit targets inside Russia with weapons containing American parts—even if those weapons were manufactured in Europe. In the Middle East, the U.S. continues to call for a cease-fire and reduce the scale of the Israeli response to Iran’s recent missile barrage.
The U.S. succeeded in deterring Iran for months when Mr. Biden deployed aircraft-carrier strike groups to the region in October 2023 and told Iran, “Don’t!” But when Iran attacked Israel in April, Mr. Biden failed to make good on his threat. Instead, he turned to Israel and again said, “Don’t!” He urged Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to “take the win” because the attack failed to inflict serious damage on Israel.
For Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the attack on Israel was a theatrical production aimed at a domestic political audience. It was meant to enhance his stature as a strongman. A forceful Israeli response could have damaged Mr. Khamenei’s public image inside Iran. By holding Israel back, the U.S. failed to deter the next attack, which came after the IDF eliminated Nasrallah. Now the administration is doing the same thing.
Escalation prevention isn’t the political objective of war; victory is. Escalation management is a tool that serves a political purpose. After three years of war, Mr. Biden and Ms. Harris have proved their inability to learn this point. They treat escalation prevention as a political objective in itself and at the cost of victory by Ukraine and Israel.
Expect more of the same if Ms. Harris becomes president. Her national-security confidant Philip Gordon also trades in escalation-phobia. He warns constantly about the rise of tensions in the Middle East and the potential for a regional war. There’s no public evidence that he and Ms. Harris favor lifting current restrictions on the use of U.S. weapons and delivering large quantities of deep-strike munitions.
In a recent interview, Ms. Harris said that she couldn’t think of anything the current administration had done wrong. That bodes ill for American national security and global stability. Should Ms. Harris move into the Oval Office next year, Iran will almost certainly continue to threaten a regional war. Vladimir Putin will test her by returning to nuclear threats. European allies might begin to accommodate Russia, fearing an unreliable U.S. Or they could adopt an aggressive posture toward Russia that could end in a pre-emptive war. A defeated Ukraine would radically change European attitudes.
The phobia of escalation will only invite more war. Ms. Harris and her crew should stop being self-contradictory and commit themselves to the victory of America’s partners.
Mr. Khatiri is a vice president and senior fellow of the Yorktown Institute.
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