Update on Ground War in Lebanon and More

Critical Threats tweeted the following:

NEW | Lebanese Hezbollah is falsely presenting Israeli ground operations as a failure in order to degrade Israeli will and underscore Hezbollah’s own resilience in the face of massive Hezbollah losses since mid-September.

Hezbollah claimed that Israeli forces have failed to take control of any tactically significant hills or ridgelines in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah asserted that Israeli forces have only advanced to the outskirts of Lebanese towns and are using propaganda images to misrepresent military successes.

Geolocated footage and commercially available satellite imagery show Israeli forces are operating in the center of southern Lebanese towns, however. CTP-ISW observed on October 11 that Israeli forces Israeli forces also appear to have at least partially secured some villages in southern Lebanon given the presence of Israeli journalists and unarmored engineering vehicles.

Securing a village would require Israeli forces to prevent Hezbollah from using direct or observed indirect fire weapons against the villages. An Israeli military correspondent further reported that Israeli forces seized territory along ridges and hills just inside of Lebanon within a few days of the ground operation starting on October 1.

The New York Times reported that Hamas asked for Iranian and Lebanese Hezbollah participation in the October 7 attacks in July 2023, underscoring the coordination between Hamas and the wider Axis of Resistance before the operation.

Hamas’ decision to move forward with the attacks despite a lack of Iranian and Hezbollah full-scale involvement reflects differences in the relative prioritization of objectives within the Axis of Resistance.

Hamas executed a sophisticated military deception campaign in support of the October 7 attacks, which contributed to the lack of Israeli preparedness. This deception effort was likely designed to exploit pre-existing Israeli biases toward believing Israel had deterred Hamas.

Read the latest update from CTP and @TheStudyofWar