The Reckoning

Peloni: Bryen provides an important look back on vital lessons learned too late, and the consequences of those nations who still stand as poor students of history and who are still struggling to grasp the reality in which they live.  As Israel has turned the corner this past year and is facing reality as needed, it is still being restrained by the US as it fails to do the same.  Until Washington realigns its perspective with that of Israel, it will continue to rachet up the Israeli butcher’s bill, delay Israel’s victory, and render what victory is achieve as somewhat less permanent than otherwise might have been achieved.

Shoshana Bryen • JPC • October 7, 2024

(Photo: U.S. State Department)

Israel is a Western country, not immune to the Western post-Cold War belief that differences could be negotiated and diplomacy could prevail. Russia had collapsed without a shot; China had not yet risen. The “peace dividend” was a thing — Israel wanted to believe; Israel was wrong.

The Hamas “pogrom” of October 7, 2023, was not the beginning of the war and it was not the “escalation” of the war. It was the continuation of Arab-Iranian wars against Israel and the United States that began decades ago. (The first Palestine Liberation Organization summer camps teaching children to hate and kill were exposed by Life Magazine in 1970, years before the Iranian revolution.)

Their ambitions received a boost over the past three years, as the Biden-Harris administration loosened sanctions on Iran and emphasized diplomacy, “de-escalation,” and proportionality, enriching not only the Islamic Republic, but its proxies: Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis and ISIS in Iraq.

October 7 started the reckoning.

The Palestinian terror war of 1987-93 was followed by “diplomacy.” The Madrid Conference (1991), Oslo Accords (1993), Oslo II (1995), Hebron Protocol (1997), Wye River Memorandum (1998) and Camp David (2000) were agreements for land or political concession by Israel, “balanced” by a promise by the PLO or the Palestinian Authority (PA) to stop inciting terror and, perhaps, to stop engaging in it.

The 2000-2005 “Second Intifada” should have been a warning about the futility of agreements with parties that actually want to kill you.  More than 1,000 Israelis were killed — the proportional equivalent of 46,000 Americans at the time.

But concurrent “diplomacy” produced Taba (2001), the Arab Peace Initiative and the “Road Map for Peace” (both in 2002). And more.  In 2005, Israel unilaterally withdrew entirely from the Gaza Strip, including bodies in the cemetery — but continued to provide electricity and water from the Israeli grid, food aid and Israeli work permits. Before October 7, 18,000 Gaza Palestinians entered Israel daily, sending $2 million each day into Gaza.

So, Israel ignored the tunnels, ignored the flow of Iranian money through Qatar, ignored the periodic and increasingly sophisticated Hamas rocket attacks that ended in “ceasefires”  — all in the name of de-escalation and diplomacy.

In 2000, Israel withdrew from Lebanon, giving Hezbollah free access to the border area; the United Nations demarcated that border. So what? In 2006, after Israel invaded Lebanon to end the rocket fire by Hezbollah into Israel, the UN Security Council passed Resolution 1701, demanding that Hezbollah withdraw its arms and troops north of the Litani River.  So what? The U.S. poured millions of dollars into the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) as a “stability force.” So what?

Here is the lesson: When security forces abandon physical property for “agreements” without a military victory, or at least binding enforcement, the enemy wins. That would be Hamas, Hezbollah, the PA, the Houthis, ISIS and the Muslim Brotherhood.

Oh, and Iran.

The Iranian government held American hostages for 444 days, and armed and trained its proxy Hezbollah, which killed 311 American and French soldiers in 1983 in Beirut; killed 18 servicemen in a restaurant in Spain; and 11 more back in Beirut. It wasn’t the end. William Buckley, Rich Higgins and Robert Dean Stethem are names no American should forget — each was targeted, tortured and murdered by Hezbollah. The bombing of the Israeli Embassy in 1992 (29 dead; 240 injured) and a communal association in Argentina in 1994 (85 dead; 300 injured) reinforced the point that, for Iran/Hezbollah, we are the same.

Oh, and nuclear capability.

The whole story of Iranian cheating before, during and after the opening of nuclear talks in 2009 and the JCPOA in 2015 is too long to recount. But the Obama administration in its day was determined to find a negotiated agreement with the Iranian regime. They got one, but it was ignored by both sides. The IAEA recently made it clear that Iran continued its pursuit of nuclear capability right up through … now.

The Trump administration flipped the script, sanctioning their oil sales and depriving them of money.  The Mullah regime was forced to cut back on support for militias in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Gaza. The Abraham Accords then erased the mistaken assumption that the U.S. was neutral between Israelis and Palestinians. There was a seat at the table left for the PA.

The Biden-Harris administration flipped it back.

Now, Houthi terrorists in the Red Sea are shooting at our Navy and Western shipping, and Iranian-sponsored militias in Iraq are shooting at our soldiers. Hamas and Hezbollah — and now even Iran directly — are all shooting at Israel.

This is the price of choosing to ignore a military buildup by people who fundamentally hate you.

The Jewish year 5784 has been a course correction. The Gregorian year 2023-24 can turn out to be one as well, but only if American political leaders have the same reckoning Israeli leaders have had.