Arlene Kushner | August 1, 2024
Amos Ben-Gershom/GPO
Following the Hezbollah attack on 12 Israeli Druze children from the village of Majdal Shams last Saturday evening, Prime Minister Netanyahu said that the terror organization would pay a heavier price than it has paid to this point. But while it would be reprisal of significant proportions, it would not be so severe as to trigger a war with Hezbollah.
There was much anxiety in the international community about “escalation,” a great deal more anxiety about that than concern with Israel’s right to respond.
Netanyahu and Defense Minister Gallant were jointly authorized by the Security Cabinet to make the decision on how to respond.
~~~~~~~~~~
Tension in the country was high, as we waited for that decision. The moment of truth came on Tuesday night:
The IDF confirmed that three missiles had been fired from an Israeli combat drone in a surgical strike on a building in the Dahiya neighborhood in central Beirut that housed the coordination offices of Hezbollah and Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC).
Taken out in that attack was Fuad Shukr, also known as Haj Muhasin; he was second in command after Nasrallah – the chief of staff. Shukr was responsible for the attack in Majdal Shams.
Shukr was also wanted by the United States for his role in the 1983 bombing of the US Marines barracks in Beirut in which 241 Americans were killed. He had a US bounty of $5 million on his head.
https://www.jewishpress.com/news/middle-east/lebanon/report-explosion-in-beirut/2024/07/31/
A most appropriate target and a major blow to Hezbollah, which did acknowledge Shukr’s death.
“Hezbollah crossed the red line,” said Gallant in a statement that was direct and to the point.
~~~~~~~~~~
Following this there were calls by Hezbollah-affiliated channels for a major attack on Israel. Precautions were taken here but without panic. As I write, there has been no Hezbollah return attack.
According to analyst Yaakov Lappin, “Israel’s elimination of Shukr was a calculated attempt by Israel to deliver a stinging blow to Hezbollah while maintaining Gaza as its primary focus.” It was “a stinging blow designed to avoid a war.”
~~~~~~~~~~
But now there is a larger issue. Less than 24 hours after Shukr was taken out, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was also killed, along with one of his bodyguards. This was a stunning action that overshadowed the death of Shukr. Haniyeh was taken out in Teheran, Iran’s capital. He was there to attend the swearing-in ceremony of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian who replaced Ebrahim Raisi (who had died in a helicopter crash).
Hassan Amar/AP
Israel has not addressed this publicly or taken responsibility. The IRGC did make an announcement.
The operation was stunning in its precision. Intelligence determined the location of Haniyeh; there is suspicion that one of Haniyeh’s bodyguards leaked information. He was then hit in a very precise attack. The projectile that killed him entered the room where he was staying; it was not a matter of bombing an entire building. I cannot speak to the exact nature of the projectile that took him out, as various sources are providing conflicting information. The attack came from inside of Iran; it came from outside of Iran. A plane launched a missile; it was a drone that was utilized.
Most recently the NYTimes has reported that an explosive had been smuggled into the apartment where Haniyeh was staying.
In the end, I’m not certain it matters.
~~~~~~~~~~
Haniyeh is the most senior Hamas leader to be taken out in years. Now that he is gone, Yahye Sinwar, inside of Gaza in hiding, is the most senior Hamas official still alive. He is believed to be hiding in a tunnel under Khan Younis and is considered here in Israel to be a dead man walking.
Haniyeh served inside of Gaza as Hamas prime minister for a duration of time, but then, in 2017, moved to Doha, Qatar, assuming the title of head of the political bureau of Hamas, outside of Gaza. In that position he had been able to travel to various capitals, including to Teheran. It is believed that he was involved in planning for October 7. A key figure in the negotiations for a ceasefire and release of the hostages, he was hardnosed in his ever-increasing demands. His goal was not achievement of a deal.
~~~~~~~~~~
Iran has been badly embarrassed by the killing of Haniyeh when he was a guest of Pezeshkian in Teheran. That there will be a retaliation seems fairly certain, and it is predicted within the next day so – likely by Shabbat.
Israel is geared up for this and has indicated that our forces are prepared for all eventualities. I am not sensing panic on the part of Israelis I’m in touch with, nor do I feel panic. Rather, there is a determination to turn the corner on forever being worried about what our enemies might do next (see more on this below).
The expectation is that this will not lead to a full-scale war, which Iran is not eager to take on at this time.
What is predicted is a barrage of missiles and drones, as occurred in April, this time aimed at Haifa and Tel Aviv. US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin has indicated iron-clad support for Israel’s security and self-defense. I assume this means assistance in taking down the missiles, drones, etc.
~~~~~~~~~~
There are many issues to explore. Key among them: who will be the replacement for Haniyeh, and how will negotiations for the hostages proceed now that he is gone?
But once again, I am eager to get this out, and will follow with more as possible.
~~~~~~~~~~
Dan Diker, president of the Jerusalem Center for Foreign Affairs (formerly JCPA), had an important article in today’s Jerusalem Post: “A message to Teheran,” which describes a newfound strength in the people of Israel (emphasis added).
“The elimination of Ismail Haniyeh, chairman of the Hamas political bureau (2017-2024)…was a long time in coming and sends several important messages from Israel to Iran and its terror proxy network.
“Israel is widely assumed to be behind the action although it did not accept direct responsibility. The targeted killing would represent an important Rubicon that Israel has apparently now passed, from fear and containment to assertiveness and a policy of ‘no tolerance’ for those trying to kill Israelis and destroy Israel.
“Haniyeh’s elimination conveyed a particularly strong message to Iran. It insulted the Iranians, revealed their weakness, and broadcast that Iranian leaders or their proxy officials could be targeted and eliminated by Israel anywhere, at the place and time of Israel’s choosing…
“If [Israel] is also behind the attack in Tehran, this action would prove that Israel crossed a fear-Rubicon, and speaks and acts according to the political culture of the Middle East by eliminating any terrorist leader or operative who attempts to harm Israel or its people.”
Read the entire piece for additional information on the evils of terrorist Ismail Haniyeh.
https://jcpa.org/the-elimination-of-hamas-leader-ismail-haniyeh-sends-a-strong-message-to-iran/
JCPA
~~~~~~~~~~
“No more imaginary ‘peace’/surrender agreements, no more mercy for these dead men walking,” posted Minister Amichai Eliyahu (Otzma Yehudit).
~~~~~~~~~~
Keep praying to Heaven for Israel.
Pray for the safety of all Israel.
Pray for the strength and wisdom of our leaders, for the safety of our soldiers, and for the rescue of our hostages.
Pray in a spirit of hope.
~~~~~~~~~~
©Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by independent journalist Arlene Kushner. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution.
Leave a Reply
You must be logged in to post a comment.