Slow walking the war in Gaza and Lebanon. Avivi says Carpe Diem and he will prevail.

By Ted Belman.

In November of last year, I wrote Israel is in a strong position, not a weak one.

Assuming that is the case, Israel should still not agree to a ceasefire. Instead, she should follow Biden’s advice:

“The new phase that the Americans envision would involve smaller groups of elite forces that would move in and out of population centers in Gaza, carrying out more precise missions to find and kill Hamas leaders, rescue hostages and destroy tunnels, the officials said.”

In addition, following such tactics would reduce Israel’s need for resupply and that would render her more immune to US pressure.

If Israel does not agree to a ceasefire, Gaza cannot be rebuilt, and the Gazans can not return to their destroyed homes. They will be refugees or, at a minimum, displaced people. Israel should not cooperate with rebuilding Gaza or humanitarian efforts. She can argue, rightly so, that Hamas is not yet destroyed.

Israel’s lack of cooperation would put the ball back in the court of the UN. It will be responsible for Gaza and the Gazans before the conflict is over.  This will put them in a bind.

During this time, Israel could demobilize much of her army and thus return her economy to normal. Of course, the IDF would remain on the northern border. Such a policy would further deter Hezbollah. It may even make it possible for many northern residents to return to their homes.

And she could search the world for munitions and set up munitions production in Israel. With every passing month, Israel would be stronger and Biden weaker.

So far, Israel has done just that except that it didn’t follow this

“Israel should not cooperate with rebuilding Gaza or humanitarian efforts. She can argue, rightly so, that Hamas is not yet destroyed. “

On July 2^nd, Times of Israel reported “Work began today, under Israeli-Palestinian cooperation, to boost electric power to a Gaza desalination plant to allow it to produce more water.”

Smotrich tweeted “We’ve lost it completely. We are rebuilding Gaza ourselves, before it has been demilitarized… Mr. Prime Minister, stop this folly.”

The war in Gaza will be over in July and Israel can then continue its mop up operations.

All the experts I relied upon for information on the Ukraine War blame the US for the debacle. They included Col Macgregor, Scott Ritter, Jeffrey Sachs, Manheimer and Larry Johnson among others.

They all argued that the war would not have happened but for the US aggressive policies. Their posture was anti-war.

When they turned their sights on The Gaza War, they maintained the same posture. They demanded that Biden end the war.

But the Biden Administration was keeping its options open. It wanted to satisfy their leftwing zealots and not alienate their rightwing supporters of Israel.

These Experts blamed the Israel Lobby for thwarting this administration.

They began a campaign to s threaten WWIII if Israel attacks Lebanon, and they kept repeating doomsday predictions of the end of Israel.

In Israel’s End Game with Hezbollah, The Caroline Glick Show, Glick interviewed, Amiad Cohen who is  the CEO of Herut Center, and the publisher of the Hebrew-language intellectual journal, Hashiloach.

Strangely, he agreed with the Expert’s “no one wants a full score war with Iran at this time.”

“And Iran doesn’t want one also preferring a war of attrition.”

The Iranians have learned, as did the Arabs, that you can’t win a war with Israel backed by the US. Currently there are two carrier groups heading to the Mediterranean. It is not certain what role they will play. Better to not find out by attacking Israel. Ergo, the war of attrition.  Israel is not good in such wars.

Iran, as a matter of policy, is always on the threshold of getting a bomb. It believes that this stature is better for them than actually having the bomb. It gives them more leverage.

Cohen described what the IDF is doing to prepare for an invasion.  It is crushing every military infrastructure above and below ground south of the Litani River and is killing Hezbollah’s leadership.

The last thing Israel want’s is a war of attrition. By evacuating 80,000 residents of Metula, Israel has created a situation where the Israeli public will accept nothing less than a strategic victory.

Israel wants a ceasefire at this time, because:

• The soldiers are exhausted,
• Israel has no defense against the lunching of 160,000 missiles by Hezbollah
• Israel doesn’t want to go to war against Lebanon with Biden on its back
• Winter is coming and that favors Hezbollah

Israel prefers a solution for all the challenges she has.

• We want Trump to win,
• We want the troops to rest
• We want to rebuild our arsenal of munitions
• We want our laser beam technology to be ready to deal with the missiles. By all accounts it will be ready before the end of the year.

Let’s face it, he repeated, “No one wants a war with Iran at this time”.

Lebanon must know that in such a war it will lose territory forever. We must declare that Israel will make the Litani River its northern border for two reasons.

1. Lebanon/Hezbolla/Iran must know that they will lose territory and
2. Israel must have a geographic border

In the Six Day War, Israel decided to take geographic territory, namely the Golan Heights. And so here too, Israel must have the Litani R. as its northern border. The Litani River is 17 km from Israel now.

Glick made the point that the Biden’s days will soon be over., She asked why doesn’t Hezbollah make hay while the sun shines? This is their best chance.

Cohen made the point that things can change. As an example, he said that Churchill begged the US for support from Dunkirk to Pearl Harbor and none was forthcoming. But Pearl Harbor changed everything, and Churchill got the support and then some that he was begging for. The Biden administration may decide that winning a war against Lebanon may help him get reelected.  You never know.

IDF Brigadier General Res Amir Aviv, founder of the IDSF, thinks otherwise. In the July 1 IDSF Daily Briefing he cited Cohen’s suggestion that we wait a year or two. He said we don’t know what will happen in a year or two and argues that we should do it now. “We could do it”.

He also said that

“I definitely believe that we are resolute enough and strong enough and have a strong enough army to win decisively.”

That’s good enough for me. I trust Avivi. He argues it would be folly to wait a year because you never know what the situation will be in a year.

Maj. Gen. Yitzhak Brik argues otherwise.

“They are still talking about attacking Hezbollah – something which will destroy the country. People are off their rockers. And Netanyahu is signing as a rubber stamp. I suggest he stop listening to such suggestions, because they will bring destruction on the country.”

What does Avivi know that Cohen and Brik don’t? Doesn’t matter. He knows enough to know that we can “decisively win”

In the next few weeks, Israel will declare the end of phase two of the war with mopping up operations to continue. As a result, Hezbollah is expected to wind down its attacks on Israel.

So, there is no reason that argues for war now, except for Avivi, and many reasons to wait till Trump is President.

I recommended slow walking the war in Gaza. Cohen is recommending the same thing in Lebanon.

Avivi is claiming that we must strike while the iron is hot. I think that is what Israel will do and should do.