Hugh Fitzgerald | June 15, 2024
Hamas is on the ropes. At least 15,000 of its operatives have been killed by the IDF. After being pummeled in the north and in the center of Gaza, it is now under assault by the IDF in Rafah, in the southernmost part of the Strip. The IDF fighters have fought their way into the center of Rafah, determined to dismantle the last four intact battalions of the terror group. The IDF will not stop until that has been accomplished, and until the rest of the hostages, the ones whom Hamas has not yet murdered, are brought home.
Yet Yahya Sinwar, knowing that the Bidenites are eager to have a “deal” to end the war in Gaza before the November election, has told his colleagues in Doha that “we have them [the Israelis] where we want them.” Now he has made demands that no Israeli government can possibly agree to, no matter who is prime minister, and that were not in the original “three-phase” deal that Biden made public at the end of May, and to which Israel then gave its reluctant consent a week later. Biden, not quite accurately, has described that deal as “Israel’s initiative.” Hamas would by its terms not only achieve an immediate ceasefire lasting six weeks, but by dragging out negotiations, during which Israel would still be committed to the ceasefire, the terror group’s combatants could then regroup.
More on Sinwar’s demand can be found here: “Hamas Demands U.S. Written Guarantees for Permanent Ceasefire in Hostage Deal,” Algemeiner, June 12, 2024:
Hamas has requested written guarantees from the United States for a permanent ceasefire and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Gaza Strip in order to finalize a U.S.-backed truce and hostage deal proposal, according to two Egyptian security sources….
The plan, unveiled by U.S. President Joe Biden at the end of May, outlines a gradual release of Israeli hostages held in Gaza and a phased withdrawal of Israeli forces, culminating in the reconstruction of Gaza and the return of the remains of deceased hostages in the third phase.
According to the Egyptian sources and a third source familiar with the talks who spoke to Reuters, Hamas is concerned that the current proposal lacks explicit guarantees for the transition from the first phase, which includes a six-week truce and the release of some hostages, to the second phase, which involves a permanent ceasefire and Israeli withdrawal.
Hamas insists on reassurances for an automatic transition between phases as outlined by President Biden, and Egypt is reportedly in contact with the U.S. regarding this demand. Hamas and Egyptian authorities did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Biden indicated that if negotiations to advance to the second phase extend beyond six weeks, the ceasefire would remain in effect until those negotiations concluded.
This is exactly what worries Israel: Hamas could prolong the second-phase negotiations, during which Israel would be committed to respect a ceasefire, while Hamas combatants could regroup.
On Tuesday [June 12], Hamas described its response to the proposal as “positive,” stating it opened a “wide pathway” to an agreement….
Hamas can describe its response to the proposal as whatever it wants, but in fact it was not an acceptance, as millions of lawyers can testify, but a counter-offer. See Restatement of Contracts 87: “A counter-offer is an offer made by an offeree to his offeror relating to the same matter as the original offer and proposing a substituted bargain differing from that proposed by the original offer.” Hamas’ counter-offer, which it is pretending is a valid acceptance, blows up the original offer proposed by the Americans and the Israelis.
Sinwar is so convinced that the Bidenites want a deal, and soon, that he believes they will indeed agree to provide a “written guarantee” that there will be a permanent ceasefire and a complete withdrawal of the IDF from Gaza. This Marlovian overreacher has miscalculated. The Biden administration will provide no such thing. It can’t do so, because it has neither the ability, nor the desire, to commit Israel to such a move.
In fact, Yahya Sinwar has already received his answer. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has been clear. He has promptly criticized Hamas’s response to Israel’s [and America’s] hostage deal proposal, noting that the group suggested numerous changes, many of which were unworkable.
“Hamas has proposed numerous changes to the proposal that was on the table…Some of the changes are workable, some are not,” Blinken said….
“It may be that Hamas continues to say ‘no.’ [Then] I think it will be clear to everyone around the world, that it’s on them and that they will have made a choice to continue a war that they started,” he concluded.
And that’s where things stand. Yahya Sinwar can’t possibly climb down from his demands, made most publicly, at this point. And the Americans know that those demands are not just “unworkable,” but absurd. Sinwar does not appear to realize that it is Hamas that has been clobbered, and Hamas that should be suing for peace. He misunderstands Israel’s determination to complete its stated mission of destroying Hamas as a military force. So the war in Gaza will continue, thanks to Hamas’ misreading of the situation, in a spectacular display of cutting-off-your-nose-to-spite-your-face.
The tragedy of this so-called deal is that the WHOLE WORLD would expect and demand that Israel would uphold its side of the deal even if the other side “accidently” killed a few hundred more Israelis. In the numerous articles I have read so far, no guarantees were offerred or even suggested binding the Palestinian side of the deal.
Israel must get out from under US pressure, even if that means no US support for anything, which always comes with strings attached anyway. Even the original F35 deal, which benefitted the US, was initiated with kill switches installed. Fortunately, there was enough common sense around to avoid this, to the best of my knowledge.
The tragedy is that our young man are being killed in boobytrapped buildings because Biden does not allow us to bombe them from the air.
Americans would never send their soldiers into unnecessary deaths, but are forcing us to do that.
Giving 10 minutes notice to the inhabitants of the building is sufficient and generous by the war standards of other countries. 15 minutes is an eternity, even for a big building.
Losing a life of even a single IDF soldier to save the lives of enemy population is immoral. If the enemy wants to go to Allah, let them go to Allah.