No point talking about a ‘post-Hamas’ era until we actually finish the job

T. Belman. Bottom line is that no one can do this job of policing Gaza, as Netanyahu intends, other than the IDF.

JINSA reported:

The assessment estimated that an Israeli military government in Gaza would cost over $5.3 billion a year, excluding reconstruction costs. The assessment, which was reviewed by Ynet News, also found that such a scenario would require 400 Israeli staffers and five IDF divisions.

Not only that, many soldiers would be killed just as they were in Lebanon until Israel retreated. Netanyahu understands that. He will no doubt shift responsibility to the local clans that he will empower as soon as possible. Netanyahu said:

“I am not prepared to switch from Hamastan to Fatahstan,”

Neither are most Israelis.

Analysis: Gallant’s criticism against Netanyahu has some merit, but he neglects to acknowledge the complexity of the issue; No one can even contemplate ruling Gaza until Hamas is completely vanquished, and the only one who can do that is Israel

By Yossi Yehoshua, YNET     

Yoav Gallant laid out his vision for the future of Gaza in a message that resonated with cabinet members and journalists alike. Gallant firmly believes that the path to a stable post-Hamas enclave, lies in the establishment of Palestinian control backed by international support.

Gallant envisions this as the antidote to the entrenched reign of terror in Gaza. He argued that failing to make a decisive move would inevitably lead to the creation of an Israeli military and civilian administration in Gaza—a scenario he deems a security and strategic danger for Israel.

While Gallant’s logic finds echoes in international circles, especially in the United States, he is well aware of the complexities and perhaps the near-impossibility of his vision. The idea of the Palestinian Authority (PA) retaking control of Gaza seems far-fetched until Hamas is thoroughly defeated. Any force attempting to enter Gaza while Hamas still holds sway would face grim consequences—execution by hanging, being thrown from roofs, or a bullet to the head.

Gallant also reviewed the extensive operations in the West Bank, perhaps needing a reminder of the PA’s limited capacity to operate effectively in the refugee camps of Jenin and Tulkarm. Given the current situation, the PA wouldn’t last 24 hours against Hamas militants. If Israel requires American arms, imagine the needs of the Palestinian security mechanisms. Now consider the potential chaos if tens of thousands of rifles were to land in the hands of a public that overwhelmingly supports the events of October 7.

The defense establishment, including IDF leadership, is not united on this issue. The arguments are serious and warrant detailed discussions. However, past arrogance and complacency, which led to the catastrophic misreading of Hamas’s intentions and capabilities, still haunt us. Those within and outside the General Staff, whom Gallant represents, speak from a place of professional expertise and genuine patriotic commitment. But a dose of humility wouldn’t hurt, given past failures and the reminder of who recommends and who decides.

The stark reality remains unchanged since Gaza became a terrorist stronghold: no one will fight our battles for us, and no one will sacrifice themselves or their families for our cause. This is why Israel was established—to defend ourselves, by ourselves. No one will enter Gaza, and certainly not manage it, until Israel dismantles Hamas. An enemy that sent 3,000 terrorists to slaughter, rape, and abduct civilians cannot be left standing.

We didn’t achieve this in previous rounds of fighting, and now we have no choice. The costs are, and will continue to be, very high. Every Israeli longs for the day when the bleeding in Gaza stops, the northern front calms down, and life returns to normal. But this is the Middle East, and the renewed “dripping” of fire into western Negev communities indicates the mission isn’t over. If we pull out tomorrow and the firing intensifies, what will we say to the residents of Sderot, the Gaza border region, and perhaps Ashkelon too?

Due to poor pre-war conduct, problematic war management, and increased American pressure following failures, we are in a particularly sticky situation. But giving up is not an option. Enemies and potential allies are watching our every move, and failure could cost us even more than we are paying now.

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JINSA Reported:

  • On May 17, Israel’s Ynet News outlet reported that Israel has conducted an assessment of the costs of having an Israeli military government control Gaza following the war.
  • The assessment estimated that an Israeli military government in Gaza would cost over $5.3 billion a year, excluding reconstruction costs. The assessment, which was reviewed by Ynet News, also found that such a scenario would require 400 Israeli staffers and five IDF divisions.
  • On May 17, Israel Hayom reported that Israel’s Defense Minister Yoav Gallant’s plan for post-war Gaza includes arming local Palestinians affiliated with the Palestinian Authority.
  • Israel’s Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said during a televised speech on May 15, “as long as Hamas retains control over civilian life in Gaza, it may rebuild and strengthen, thus requiring the IDF to return and fight in areas where it has already operated,” and “we must dismantle Hamas’s governing capabilities in Gaza. The key to this goal is military action, and the establishment of a governing alternative in Gaza.”
  • He added, “in the absence of such an alternative, only two negative options remain: Hamas’ rule in Gaza or Israeli military rule in Gaza,” and “the meaning of indecision is choosing one of the negative options. It would erode our military achievements, reduce the pressure on Hamas, and sabotage the chances of achieving a framework for the release of hostages.”
  • He went on, “the end of the military campaign must come together with political action. The ‘day after Hamas’ will only be achieved with Palestinian entities taking control of Gaza, accompanied by international actors, establishing a governing alternative to Hamas’s rule. This, above all, is an interest of the State of Israel,” and “unfortunately, this issue was not raised for discussion, and worse, no alternative was brought up in its place.”
  • He argued that “indecision is, in essence, a decision,” and “this leads to a dangerous course, which promotes the idea of Israeli military and civilian governance in Gaza. This is a negative and dangerous option for the State of Israel — strategically, militarily, and from a security standpoint.”
  • Gallant said that “[should this be the decision], military rule in Gaza would become the main security and military effort of the State of Israel over the coming years, at the expense of other arenas. The price paid would be bloodshed and victims, as well as a heavy economic price,” and “I will not agree to the establishment of Israeli military administration in Gaza. Israel must not exercise civilian control in Gaza.”
  • He said further, “the security establishment and the IDF are responsible for destroying Hamas and retaining full military freedom of action in Gaza. The capacity to do so depends on the creation of alternative governance in Gaza,” and “all parts of the government of Israel have to work on this.”
  • Gallant urged, “I call on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to make a decision and declare that Israel will not exercise civilian rule in the Gaza Strip, because no Israeli military administration will be established in Gaza, and that an alternative government to Hamas in the Gaza Strip will be advanced immediately. That is our obligation and responsibility in order to lead the state to a better place.”
  • He argued further, “right now, on our watch, for the sake of the state’s future, we have to take tough decisions — advancing the national interest over all other interests, even if this requires paying personal or political costs.”
  • In response, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on May 15, “after the terrible massacre on October 7, I ordered the destruction of Hamas,” and “as long as Hamas remains intact, no other party will step in to manage civilian affairs in Gaza, certainly not the Palestinian Authority. 80 percent of the Palestinians in Judea and Samaria [the West Bank] support the terrible massacre of October 7.”
  • He said, “I am not prepared to switch from Hamastan to Fatahstan,” and “the Palestinian Authority supports terror, educates for terror, funds terror. And so the first condition for preparing the ground for another party is to eliminate Hamas, and to do so without excuses.”
May 18, 2024 | 2 Comments »

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  1. A “lebanisation” of Gaza is always possible once Israel leaves.
    All tunnels to and from Egypt must be DESTROYED!
    Count on the many antisemitic NGOs.

  2. From past experience, we know that Abbas and the PA want Gaza presented to the on a silver tablett in a Jew-free and Hamas-free bundle with lot of aid of all kinds lined up. If Israel remains in charge, Gaza will be Hamas-free and, of course, aid-free. The second option is still better for Israel. International agreements should be lined up to take in the Gazans who want to leave. Of course, no Arab state will sign up to take Gazans who don’t already have deep pockets.