Peloni: This is both a very important and very happy development. The US needs to respect Israel as an ally, and Israel must demonstrate her own sovereignty by making decisions which are in her own interest which may conflict with the desires of her allies in Washington. These two necessities can only be restored by removing the leverage which the US has recklessly manipulated against the existential interests of the Israeli state and people. A very important development to be certain.
By Simone Ledeen, Real Clear Defense
Israel’s declaration that it intends to expand its domestic munitions production heralds a new chapter in U.S.-Israel relations, where strategic recalibration meets the challenges of an evolving international arms landscape. Israel’s announcement signifies a dual aim: to diminish U.S. leverage in its military operations and to confront the relentless shortages prevalent in the global market. In the volatile landscape of global munitions sales, the Black Sabbath massacre orchestrated by Hamas has seemingly propelled Israel into a serious reassessment of how much leverage over its military decision-making it is willing to give the United States.
On December 29th with Israel engaged in heavy fighting during clearing operations in Gaza, and a looming regional conflict on the horizon, the Biden White House approved the second emergency transfer of the month for Israel, this one totaling nearly $150 million in military equipment, including critically important 155mm artillery ammunition. In response to Israel’s previous emergency request, the US expedited the delivery of over 13,000 tank shells.
Historically, the United States has been a key supplier of military aid to Israel, offering critical support in times of conflict. However, the increasing acknowledgment within Israel’s leadership that this dependence also translates to a degree of subservience in military decision-making seems to have prompted a reevaluation. By cultivating a more self-reliant approach to armaments, Israel aims to reduce its vulnerability to external influences, particularly, the leverage that U.S. armaments confer on its military decisions.
While the alliance is rooted in shared values and common interests, the leverage the U.S. holds through the provision of military aid has, at times, led to complex diplomatic negotiations, acknowledging the occasional divergence in goals between Israel and the U.S. The U.S. imperative is not just to address regional conflicts but to grapple with a global market in flux. The global weapons market is always driven by geopolitical shifts, and now more than ever, an insatiable demand for artillery ammunition as two hot shooting wars are taking place.
In recent months, the U.S. had to some extent stepped up production within our defense industrial base to meet immediate demands and replenish stockpiles, but more is needed and quickly. The urgency for increased production becomes not just a response to immediate needs, but a strategic imperative to stay ahead in an ever-evolving defense landscape where the future is increasingly violent and difficult to predict.
In addition to old-fashioned artillery, unmanned aerial vehicles, particularly First Person View (FPV) drones, have emerged as transformative assets. The ability to deploy munitions from drones reshapes the dynamics of conflict, presenting both opportunities and ethical challenges.
FPV drones, equipped with real-time video transmission systems, have become linchpins in modern warfare. In both Israel’s war with Hamas and Ukraine’s war with Russia, these drones provide tactical advantages by offering military forces a valuable tool for reconnaissance, target identification, and even the delivery of munitions. Yet, the integration of FPV technology also raises ethical concerns. Battlefield videos from Ukraine show these drones sometimes being used for activities that violate international norms.
In this landscape, the FPV drone discussion stands as a microcosm of the broader challenges and opportunities that define our American path forward. Israel is signaling an intent to chart its own course in the coming months and years, as it must defeat Hamas both militarily and politically, despite pressure for a ceasefire from some quarters.
The recent emergency transfers of military equipment from the Biden White House to Israel have highlighted the constraints that come with heavy reliance on external support. The expedited deliveries, while addressing immediate needs, have underscored the vulnerability inherent in relying on a foreign ally for crucial military supplies during times of conflict and the many reasons why this current global environment requires a new approach.
Most sophisticated Israeli Weapon systems that Israel can’t or won’t make:
F-35’s (US)
Apache attack helicopters (US)
Sa’ar Corvettes – Israel’s most advanced surface ship (Germany)
Dolphin Subs (Germany)
I think Israel could make all of these except the F-35. That is a 5th generation fighter. Israel would then have to design, develop and make a 6th generation fighter. Israel’s defense budget would soar if it made all (4) and it would eat up a huge portion of its budget. It could do this but it would be a perpetual war economy.
Israel now spends 5.2% of its budget on the military. The U.S. spends only 3.5%
To accomplish all of the above you are looking at least 20% to 25% of the budget spent on the military with no increase in pay for its soldiers, sailors and airmen.
The Left would probably win every election forever if this was proposed by Netanyahu. So, maybe leave it at ships, subs and copters for now if possible.
GREAT!
Long overdue!
Need to diversify sources!
Countries have only “Interests” but no friends! Not from me.
C de Gaul, Palmerston!
Israel’s decision is the correct one, but not without a potential down side. If the US feels that it is losing leverage over Israel in the area of armaments, it may increase its blackmail of Israel in the UN Security Council, or other forums. Israel should proceed, but it needs to act carefully so as not to anger the US. Such is life in an abusive relationship.
Any normally military minded person with Israel surrounded by terrorist entities and living a life of never failing periodic wars in either low or high key, would assume that Israel would have YEARS ago, begun preparing to manufacture what it is short of but vitally needs. And by now, would have flourishing munitions factories guaranteeing an always available supply.
One great advantage Israel has, it that it fights on interior lines, with no logistical problems, supplies within a couple of miles etc.
Needing only safe supplies of raw materials where many countries could supply and glad of the export opportunities. I don’t know if potash is still used in munitions mfr-ing, but Israel has a lot of it.
Why the sloth and 100% reliance on the US, whose policies re Israel always extract 2 lbs of “flesh” and making Israel basically a “client state” instead of it’s own sovereign master.
ANy normally military minded person with Israel surrounded by terrorist entities and living a life of never failing periodic wars in either low or high key, would assume that Israel would have YEARS ago, begun preparing to manufacture what it is short of but vitally needs. And by now, would have flourishing munitions factories guaranteeing an always available supply.
One great advantage Israel has, it that it fights on interior lines, with no logistical problems, supplies within a couple of miles etc.
Needing only safe supplies of raw materials where many countries could supply and glad of the export opportunities. I don’t know if potash is still used in munitions mfr-ing, but Israel has a lot of it.
Why the sloth and 100% reliance on the US, whose policies re Israel always extract 2 lbs of “flesh” and making Israel basically a “client state” instead of it’s own sovereign master.
Peloni
It was published weeks ago that Israel had plenty of weapons which are not the problem, but had become woefully short of munitions, particularly artillery shells. for tanks and big guns.
Israel’s” intending” to expand it’s munitions production, is an intention not an already accomplished fact. Of course, I don’t know what is involved but I’d bet it will have no effect on the present war but maybe the war after next.
At least that’s the way I read it in a very quick glance-over; and therefore the article is superfluous.
HI ms45143.
Feiglin has a good heart, and plenty of guts, but it has been Netanyahu who has been able to cobble together governments — for longer than any ruler of Israel, including Ben Gurion.
Accepting aid from the US has always had its trade-offs, and I think the Israeli politicians are generally aware of this. One thing I’ve noticed in following the Ukrainian war, is that domestic production of armaments is more a matter of national commitment to a war effort than anything else. Israel could partner with Madagascar, if it needed to, and fill its needs; but unless it gives its heart and soul into the effort, it would fall short with both China and America on its side.
Where there’s a will, there’s a way. Look at North Korea:
https://tlgrm.eu/channels/@pilotblog/8894
Why does Israel have to announce its every move or even intent?
In this case, Israel is nowhere near self-sufficiency, then why announce something that may take years to accomplish?
Do its politicians want the US to reassure them that it will never limit its arms shipments to Israel?
If so, the US might reassure them and then change its mind later, or the US might stop Israel from becoming self-sufficient, or the US might limit the shipments just “to show them”.
I would really like to know who is in charge of making these announcements.
Every time (for example) Israel announces that it is going to expand some settlement, it is stopped from doing so – I suspect this is the purpose of these loud proclamations.
Does anyone have any details (timelines, stock trading, etc.) for this welcome move?
Every time there has been a war or campaign in the past 25 years and Israel finds itself reliant on American good will, there have been calls to stop taking American aid and rely on ourselves. Moshe Feiglin was especially prominent in this. Despite it being obvious then just as it’s obvious now, the Israelis couldn’t resist the freebies despite knowing it came with a cost of subservience. Look at all the stupid decisions they have been making since Oslo – inviting the almost defeated PLO back and entrenching them in Judah and Samaria, giving them guns, the Disengagement, the “mowing the lawn” philosophy, the retreat from south Lebanon, relying on the 1701 UN TIP forces to “protect” the border from Hizballah. Now they are planning to make more catastrophic mistakes, like pleading their case in front of the anti-semitic ICC, and possibly bringing in Arabs and Europeans to run Gaza. When will we finally get rid of these fools – both from the left and the “right” who keep putting the country in danger?
Defense Stocks in USA are up!
After many days of vote counting past election day in 2020, Joe Biden was going to be installed the winner. In the interregnum between election results and inauguration one watched with concern every appointment of an anti-Israel, pro-China cabinet member and their deputies. There was not one reasonable concession to the work of Trump or his policies evident in the personnel selected. It was obvious then, there would be a major put down of all Trump’s good works. In 2020, I wrote somewhere that Israel needed to start making every bullet it owned, a metaphor for self-sufficiency, because it was clear to me that the dependency of Israel on arms supply from the US would be used against it.
More knowledgeable and read-in writers on this site will often disclose, briefly and only in passing, some of the arrangements for arms and mutual systems development, understandings between Israeli and American weapons makers and armed services personnel… that I have no way of keeping track of nor placing them in situational time to assess the strategic thinking at the moment these deals were struck. But it should have been clear in 2020 that a very hostile crowd of Obama retreads were being put in place to thwart Israel’s hand in sovereign affairs. The need for independent weapons manufacture became critical in late 2020. A 2024 start to this course… times it poorly, as all can see now. As one of the vast armchair army of Israel supporters, it pains me to see this need enunciated so late.
It’s also possible that Obama himself is guiding the policy that favors Iran because it’s clear that the US is staying Israel’s hand against Hezbollah, the Houthis, the Iranians and the PA’s forces in Judea and Samaria, besides the interference in Gaza. If Suleimani could be eliminated in Iraq (a US op), if Arouri and his staff can be eliminated in Lebanon, if Iranian IRGC commanders and their staff can be wiped out it in Syria… there is no reason to doubt that Iranian mullahs and Houthi commanders could also have ‘accidents’. Neither Nasrallah in his Beirut redoubt nor Haniyeh in Doha is immune, nor terrorists hosted by Erdogan.
No nation can be asked to comply with its own suicide. Israel should be strategic about keeping its American ally and realize that the Biden administration is not popular (nor likely legitimate) in the eyes of the American public, nor are the string-pullers that use him as the blame-gatherer for their machinations. Pretending there is some grand diplomatic plan to pit Shias against Sunnis and that that is why we favor Iran over Israel… is artless camouflage for the desire to make Israel disappear. We’re not Nixon forging an opening to China and putting Russia on its back foot by going easy on Iran, because we’re not deterring Iran with our powerlessness. And the Nixon effect has long worn off as nowadays we’re not deterring either China or Russia!
Famed Jewish obduracy ought to be a thing practiced once in a while, not just a punchline in a joke.