Israel’s going to need a bigger army and other lessons from this war

Israel must also lower its dependency on the US for arms. On the bright side, the Abraham Accords are still intact

By Efraim Inbarr, TOI  DEC 23/23

The US has displayed great support for vanquishing Hamas, and this has enhanced Israel’s position as a valued American ally. Yet, the American motives are suspect. The Biden administration’s support is predicated by an obsession with the Two-State paradigm, which requires eliminating Hamas from Gaza and restoring the moribund and corrupt Palestinian Authority (PA) there. Moreover, the American embrace aims to restrain Israel from attacking Iranian proxies, a move that could lead to a regional escalation – something Washington is eager to avert. This has been the major motive for sending aircraft carriers to the region.

The US has no appetite to take on the main culprit for the Hamas, Hezbollah, and Houthi aggression against Israel, Iran. Washington, which had pressured Saudi Arabia to stop fighting the Houthis, even warned Israel not to take independent action to defend the freedom of navigation for its ships in the Bab-al Mandeb Straits. It is not clear how determined the international flotilla that the US has initiated will be against the Houthi threat. So far Washington has preferred a defensive posture.

The war also facilitates the continuation of the global ostrich syndrome concerning Iran’s nuclear advances. Despite the worrisome November report by the IAEA about further growth in Iran’s breakout capabilities as a result of the continued growth of enriched uranium stockpiles, the US appears to have paid scant attention. Moreover, Iran, in a continuation of its strategy to reduce transparency over its sensitive nuclear programs, withdrew the designation of European inspectors with experience in enrichment technology, thus further handicapping attempts to inspect its nuclear programs. This elicited no Western response. Israel is busy with its war on Hamas without a clear effective strategy to stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.

On the bright side, the Abraham Accords seem to have overcome a difficult test. The UAE and Bahrain maintained their diplomatic relations and even Saudi Arabia signaled its intention to continue with the normalization process. Similarly, Egypt and Jordan cooperate with Israel in providing humanitarian aid to the Palestinians in Gaza. All these Arab states relish the fact that Israel is doing the dirty job of administering a serious blow to the Palestinian offshoot of the Muslim Brothers.

Israel needs a quick decisive victory over Hamas, primarily to restore lost deterrence. It cannot survive in the Middle East if it is not feared. Fear is the best political currency in this region. In addition, it must meet several immediate challenges.

Jerusalem cannot change the asymmetric nature of its relations with Washington which will always act upon its perceived interests. Yet, it is imperative to lower the dependency upon the US for ammunition and weaponry. It is largely a question of allocating enough money to have a larger storage capability and more investment in R&D. Israel’s military industries probably need compensation for a quick transition to an emergency mode to supply the IDF. The goal is not to free Israel of the need to rely on the US but to increase Israel’s freedom of action for longer periods in emergencies when the two states do not see eye to eye.

Indeed, Israel must allocate much larger amounts of money for its defense budget. It needs a larger standing army that can better protect Israel’s borders and a stronger military able to fight at least on two fronts simultaneously. Shortening the period of compulsory military period is no longer an option and increasing the pool of available conscripts is necessary.

A nuclear Iran is an existential threat that the international community, and primarily the US, refuses to deal with. Israel is on its own, and it is naive to believe that anything but a preventive Israeli military strike, will eliminate this challenge. Israel has to refocus and prepare to end the nuclear threat.

Dealing with the Palestinian challenge requires patience because there is no ending to the conflict any time soon. There is little chance of the dysfunctional Palestinian national movement evolving into a “revitalized” Palestinian Authority (PA) of the nature the Americans dream about. Any Palestinian entity will continue to constitute only a marginal security risk as long as Israel is determined to mow the grass as often as needed.