The terrorist group that rules the Gaza Strip never anticipated that Israel would launch an all-out undertaking to destroy it.
While the IDF is engaged in Gaza, in what is becoming a protracted war, aiming to weaken Hamas and secure the release of captives, the main effort by Hamas and its backers has been focused on reaching as prolonged a ceasefire as possible.
Such a ceasefire has operational and tactical importance for Hamas. However, its main significance lies in the strategic arena. Hamas hopes a ceasefire will compel Israel to change its war objectives and revert to the softer approach that the Islamist group initially believed Israel would follow right after the Oct. 7 massacre.
I believe that Hamas leaders, despite the severe blow inflicted on Israel, were convinced that the Israeli response would focus on targeted airstrikes that would extract a significant price from the Palestinians and perhaps even a limited ground maneuver. However, they never anticipated that Israel would launch an all-out undertaking to eliminate the terrorist organization and deprive it of its military-terrorist capabilities along with retaking the Gaza Strip.
Hamas likely believed that had Israel subscribed to a small-scale approach, they could build on the success of Oct. 7 and effect a change that would result in a new “equation” between the organization and the Jewish state. Meaning, the release of the terrorists imprisoned in Israel, lifting the blockade, and stopping the normalization process between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
Hamas assessed that Israel’s weakness and its problematic relations with the U.S., coupled with its inherent reluctance to pay the high price involved in a broad military operation to remove Hamas from Gaza, would ultimately prevent it from completely defeating Hamas, just like in previous flare-ups.
In previous rounds, whenever the fighting ended, both sides licked their wounds, but Hamas then quickly recovered and again posed a threat to the area near Gaza and to Israel as a whole.
To the surprise of Hamas
This time Israel adopted, to the surprise of Hamas, a different approach that could strategically weaken the organization to an unprecedented extent, thereby also affecting both radical factions associated with the organization; the radical axis led by Iran on the one hand, and the Muslim Brotherhood axis, which includes Qatar and Turkey, on the other.
All actions by Hamas, Iran and its proxies (Hezbollah, the Houthis and Shi’ite militias in Iraq), as well as Qatar and Turkey, should be seen in the context of the attempt to persuade U.S. President Joe Biden to pressure Israel to stop the fighting and eventually adopt an alternative approach.
This effort motivates them to create the impression that there is a severe humanitarian crisis in Gaza. It is what made Hamas play a cynical game with the captives, and this is also what has prompted the Shi’ite militias in Iraq to step up their attacks on U.S. forces. Likewise, this explains the gradual escalation by Hezbollah in the north and the missile launches from the Houthis in Yemen, and the potential expansion of the conflict by Iran and its allies.
This is also the context through which we must treat the numerous protests in Western capitals calling for a ceasefire. Even Jordan and Egypt are joining the chorus for various reasons, primarily due to the concern about a flow of Palestinian refugees into their territories. The Palestinian Authority calls for a ceasefire, but it is unclear if it is genuinely interested in one.
So far, Hamas and its allies’ efforts have been unsuccessful. Biden is under pressure, along with most Western leaders. They understand the importance of Israel’s success in undermining Hamas and the moral justification for it. Israel’s recent moves, such as advancing on the ground, exposing the illicit Hamas activity at the Rantisi and Shifa hospitals, and continued close coordination with the U.S. regarding the management of the conflict against Hezbollah, contribute to Biden’s ability to withstand pressure.
As the fighting continues, Israel will need to remind Western leaders, led by Biden, that letting Hamas stay in power is beyond the pale and that Israel can bring about the organization’s demise within a reasonable time without causing a humanitarian disaster in Gaza or leading to actions that would escalate the conflict into a regional war.
This is how Israel would be able to ensure room to act and the time needed to achieve its strategic goals, even if it agrees to short ceasefires/pauses to free the captives.
DF Brig. Gen. (res.) Yossi Kuperwasser is director of the Project on Regional Middle East Developments at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs. He formerly served as director general of the Israeli Ministry of Strategic Affairs and head of the research division of IDF Military Intelligence.
If this article is accurate regarding Hamas, that Hamas miscalculated the effect of their attack, that is helpful information. If it is accurate about how Iran’s assets have been ratcheting up the pressure on Biden to start interfering with Israel’s progress, that too is good to know. But neither of these things change anything.
Israel has to completely defeat, destroy, and dismantle Hamas root and branch. That goes for all the terrorists in Gaza.
In addition, afterwards, Israel is going to have to defeat Hezbollah or Israelis in the north won’t have safe homes to go back to.
This is an existential war for the survival of Israel. Surrounded by Jew hating genocidal people, Israel is going to have to defeat them and make it impossible for them to kill the Jews and Christians of Israel or Israel will never be a safe country for Jews again.
The Palestinians who hate the Jews are only half the problem. The other half of the problem are the Western political elites who are wedded to the idea of continual conflict in the Middle East.
They could have ended this conflict YEARS AGO. We know now they did the exact opposite. George H. W. Bush started Hamas with Jordan’s King Abdullah.
Ask yourselves why the CIA and a US President would want to create a Muslim terrorist group whose charter called for the destruction of Israel.
Why indeed. US President after President made what appear in retrospect to have been ridiculous non-efforts to create peace in the Middle East, such as the Oslo process. The only President who did anything constructive was Trump, and every elite in the US political system wants to destroy him.
How can you make peace between the Palestinians and the Israelis if you listen to neither of them?
And the Western political elites are still at it. They refuse to listen to the Palestinians. It doesn’t take a genius to just listen to what they say. And they say out loud and clearly, “WE WANT TO KILL THE JEWS AND WE WANT ALL OF ISRAEL FOR OURSELVES.”
The Western political elites can now be seen as empty suits, parading around as if they are the important people in the world when they are clueless and useless. It has been under their watch that thousands if not hundreds of thousands of Muslims in various countries parade in the streets chanting their genocidal wishes for all to hear and see.
As soon as Israel appears to be winning the war, these elites will be the first ones to call “Time out” and make sure Israel cannot get the job done.
I sincerely hope this time will be different.
The fact that Israel has gone along with the Western powers to her detriment all these years is very sad. I think Israel has been in a largely abusive relationship with the US government, in which the abused one keeps hope alive that the abuser will change.
Then there are also those in Israel who don’t seem to know the difference between being abused and not being abused. They seem in favor of helping the two forces that are intent on harming them: the Palestinians and the Obama/Biden administrations. It’s like some kind of sick joke.
But the Israeli people as a whole seem to have experienced something since 10/7 that will make it very unlikely that they will support what the Israeli progressives want.
That ‘s why I still say America was right to go to war 20 years ago though it was mishandled and Iran not Libya and Egypt should have been next. And we need an unpredictable president like Trump. Our enemies need to know that if we are attacked, we will lose it, go ape shit, war fever battle ctazy. Only then can there be peace.
3/4 of Gaza Palestinians support Hamas, their goal,s and their tactics. Note that More Palestinians have died over the years at the hands of their co-religionists than Israelis have killed.
They are the bastard childen, nobody wants in their back yard let alone country. If the Saudis Turks or Syrians bitch and moan, let them take a few hundred thousand each. Israli needs to depopulate Gaza.
Iran and its proxy Army , Hezbollah, have basically told Hamas:
“We are not really able to help you much here. You have made a big mistake and we want no part of you right now as Israel is really pissed off. So, good luck, you guys. You are pretty much on your own.”
Syria and the rest of the Arab world are just going about their business and are also not doing anything mcuh.
First time that has ever happened since 1948. What happened to the “We always help our Muslim brothers and sisters, blah, blah routine?”
Once the cry goes out for a “cease-fire” you know Israel is having a negative effect on Hamas
Far from sure what will end up being.. Netanyahu and the “cease fire generals” must admit failure of Oslo and disengagement and themselves. The objective is now to destroy Hamas as reverse the disengagement disaster.
The article missed the point..Israel was attacked..Not the first time either
Israel so forced to fight and actually fights a defensive war
It must win ALL of Gaza and drive out the enemy
Excepting an Israeli defeat by Hamas Israel achieves unambiguous possession of Gaza through defensive war
THIS is recognised international law