By Col. (res.), Shay Shabtai, BESA October 23, 2023
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Unlike during previous conflicts, Israel is not constrained this time by a “political hourglass” and it would be wise to remove this concern from the table if a decisive outcome in the ground operation against Hamas is to be achieved. The ability to maintain this situation over time is in Israel’s hands. Seven clear decisions, detailed below, will be required to strengthen Israel’s hand, along with the establishment of mechanisms necessary for their implementation.
Hamas’s surprise attack on October 7, 2023, fundamentally changed Israel’s strategic situation. Premises based on past events are not applicable to the new situation and hinder strategic and moral clarity. One of these outdated premises is the focus on the “political hourglass,” meaning the continuous assessment of international limitations on Israel’s ability to conduct military operations.
This fundamental change is driven by several factors.
First is the nature of the enemy. Hamas has revealed its true face. It is not just a terrorist organization, as it is labeled on numerous lists worldwide. It is an entity that conducts crimes against humanity and is committed to genocide. Experts in the field argue that as in the Srebrenica massacre of 1995, even if its execution of the destruction of a people was local and not absolute, Hamas’s intentions and actions meet this criterion.
That being the case, Israel has both the current circumstances and historical experience to justify destroying the organization’s ability to conduct terrorism and to bring its leaders to justice for their genocidal intentions. This is a justifiable war of self-defense such as has not been seen since World War II.
The second parameter is the approach of the United States. Its leadership has a clear understanding of the nature of the enemy and the context of the threat. For them, this is a “9/11 moment.” The historical commitment of the United States to the existence of Israel was established for just such moments. While not everyone in the diverse and polarized American society agrees, the mainstream supports Israel and its actions, with President Biden and Secretary of State Blinken at the forefront, committed to Israel’s security and future. The American commitment to the defensive war to destroy Hamas’s capabilities is so high that the United States has made the unprecedented moves of deploying forces in a threatening and aggressive posture against Hezbollah and other members of the coalition with the Iranians in order to deter them from interfering with the targeting of Hamas and the transfer of vital ammunition to Israel. The political and military leadership of the United States are serving as top advisors to the Israeli political and security leadership guiding them in the making of the decisions that will be required to eliminate Hamas.
The third parameter is the scope of the conflict. Iran and Hezbollah have been closely monitoring the extreme miscalculation displayed by the Hamas leadership in Gaza over the course of the surprise attack. They are not willing to waste strategic assets that exist primarily to protect their own survival and operational capabilities in order to save Hamas, especially when there is an American threat looming over them. In this situation, decisive action to destroy Hamas’s capabilities will deter Iran and Hezbollah from interfering in the conflict. The anticipated demonstration of strength by the IDF against Hamas in Gaza should cool Nasrallah’s eagerness to test Israel’s capabilities, especially when it comes to risking the organization’s senior leadership.
The fourth parameter is the regional situation. Moderate Arab states, including Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, and others, express public disagreement with Israel’s approach for reasons of internal security and public opinion. They also have genuine concerns about the actions that will be required. However, a demonstration of Israel’s military strength and the rehabilitation of its image after the surprise attack will bolster the national security of these states, which rely on Israel’s proactive approach to regional threats as part of their defense posture. Therefore, despite their public statements, they support a decisive outcome against Hamas.
The fifth parameter is the international public arena. The war in Ukraine caused shockwaves in Western public opinion, especially in Western Europe. The concept of a war of conquest and destruction was abruptly returned to their consciousness. Europeans realized they could once again find themselves in a reality they thought they had left behind after World War II. In non-democratic states like China and Russia, humanitarian issues are viewed through the lens of national interests. The near-total international indifference to the mass displacement of the Armenian population by Azerbaijan a few weeks ago is a clear reflection of prevailing global apathy toward military actions that are anything less than genocidal. Although Israel has always been singled out negatively and discriminated against in terms of the use of force and its right to defend itself, the connection between the updated world mindset and the genocidal course of Hamas changes the picture.
The sixth parameter is the economic one. Israel’s economy will be significantly impacted by the war, but it is expected to recover, as it has done after previous conflicts. There won’t be the kind of “lost decade” that followed the Yom Kippur War due to serious mistakes made by the government at the time. One factor that will facilitate the recovery process is that the Israeli economy will be more stable than before the war: The divisions surrounding legal reform have weakened the Israeli economy, but a state of recovery from a painful war will lead to the acceleration of renewed growth.
As a result of all these parameters there is no “political hourglass” in this war, and this concern should be set aside so as not to hamper the military campaign to destroy Hamas’s military capabilities and end its genocide-driven rule.
Having said that, there are seven clear Israeli decisions that must be made and effective mechanisms activated to maintain this situation over the time needed to achieve the strategic goals. The required decisions are as follows:
The first is about determination: Israel needs to set the clear goal of defeating Hamas in a ground operation and stick with it until completion. Any hesitation or readiness to negotiate, including on the issue of hostages, will be seen as a loss of strategic and moral clarity. Unlike in previous conflicts, Israel’s determination to achieve its military objectives increases its freedom of action rather than diminishes it. A final military resolution against Hamas – not just a superficial degradation of Hamas’s capabilities and presence – should be completed within weeks.
The second decision concerns the humanitarian response: As part of the military operation, Israel must adhere to the requirements of the Fourth Geneva Convention for dealing with occupied territory. It must ensure the provision of basic needs for the population, even if some of them go to Hamas. Israel should work to return those Gazans who temporarily fled to their places of residence after the clearing phase. Israel must ensure that government facilities, institutions, and mechanisms serving the population are not destroyed during the conflict and that there is continuity in employment and salary payments.
The third decision concerns planning for the day after: Israel must build – together with the United States and international and regional partners – mechanisms that will grant the civil services in the Gaza Strip the funding and administrative structure they need to function (for example, a joint Palestinian-regional-international directorate). We must not make the mistake the Americans made in Iraq of eliminating existing civil mechanisms just because some of their people were supporters of the enemy. This cost the Americans a decade of hard fighting until government mechanisms were rebuilt.
The fourth decision concerns visibility: Humanitarian and post-conflict actions should be well-presented and well-articulated. High-ranking government officials should avoid making extreme statements about collective punishment. The international community will be more likely to discount Deputy Minister Ben Gvir’s and others’ extreme language only if the main message from Israel’s decision-makers, both in the political and military spheres, is consistent, clear, and temperate.
The fifth decision should be to engage in dialogue with Saudi Arabia and Egypt, as they will be key players in stabilizing civilian services in Gaza in the aftermath, especially given the lack of capabilities of the Palestinian Authority. Egypt has legitimate concerns as it doesn’t want two million Palestinian refugees in the Sinai. It is possible that an international agreement can be reached with Egypt similar to what the European Union did with Turkey regarding Syrian refugees, involving temporary accommodation in exchange for economic assistance. Essential negotiations with Saudi Arabia about Gaza’s future will be part of the discussions and intense peacemaking effort immediately after the end of the main fighting.
The sixth decision is about the scope of the conflict: Israel should avoid unnecessary adventures initiated by Hezbollah and let the Americans take the lead in that area. Israel should be fully prepared to inflict a severe blow on the organization if necessary, but this should be done in collaboration with the United States should Hezbollah become as brazen as Hamas in Gaza.
The seventh decision is about bringing the leaders of Hamas to justice. The top leadership of Hamas – those who are implicated in crimes against humanity and genocide – should be brought to trial at a special court in Jerusalem. This should serve as the moral centerpiece for all other efforts.
Col. (Res.) Shay Shabtai is a senior researcher and deputy director at the BESA Center, and an expert in national security, strategic planning, and strategic communication. He is a cyber security strategist and consultant to leading companies in Israel.
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Yes I’m sure they would also. But recall that they opened their doors to them eagerly and gave them free, untrammelled access to their Social Services –and their women.
Please recall that the “guests” were almost all young men, and also recall their depredations (eg) in Malmo, which in 2 years reduced the Jewish population there by more than half. The Swedes deserve everything that did and is happening. As do the others. France, once proud France, will be Muslim in about 20 years.. And from there it will spread to the already diluted rest of the EU.
But Israel is a country and People intertwined with the Land, the Holy Land; regardless of how many who profess to be agnostics and “atheists” , they never deny that they are Jews.
And History has proven over and over that Jews must live in their own country “Alone” , specifically with NO Arabs, who will always seek to murder them, Christians, who will similarly seek to convert them. .
Look at the statement of the UN Sec General this morning… A mamzer of unsurpassed ignorance and Anti-Semitism.
The Goyishe world will never cease to stick its collective nose into Israel’s internal affairs, and need to be given short shrift direct from the Government, once and for all.
The whole list of “decisions” and requirements needs to be viewed through the Israeli lens for a change. The US and the EU have provided lots of humanitarian aid to the (said gently) population of the Gaza Strip for decades. Now that taking care of the residents of the Gaza Strip is becoming an Israeli problem MUST mean that this financial aid continues to flow – to Israel. If any other sweetheart solution is considered, Israel must make clear that this Israeli problem will also get an Israeli solution. Any UNSC resolutions that counter this approach must be met with decisive and final NO’s. Since no-one else can be trusted to solve the problem (see southern Lebanon), Israel will weed out the terrorists and incarcerate them at “humanitarian aid” expense.
Unfortunately, Shabtai has totally overlooked what is one of the most important pieces of the puzzle and that is the incompetence and lack of resolve of the Biden administration and its consistent policy of appeasing Iran while ignoring the grave threat posed to Israel and the West by Iran’s imminent production of nuclear weapons.
If the Biden administration were truly concerned about Iran’s apocalyptic designs it would immediately and totally destroy Iran’s capacity to produce nuclear weapons and enforce crippling sanctions on Iran’s economy. as well.
The role and intentions of the US is not as clear cut as the author wants us to believe. The US refusal to back track on its actions towards the ayatollahs is very concerning and not based on naivete or wishful thinking.
Qatar, a significant supporter of Islamic terrorism, needs to face consequences.
Iran needs to be dealed with.
@Edgar G.
Of course, we’d all love to get rid of our Muslim occupiers from Gaza, Judea, Samaria, Galilee, Negev, and all other places.
No civilized country should have more than 10% Muslim population.
Under 5% would still be better.
>1% ideal.
However, the question is whether we have the strength to do that.
And we are not the only people feeling this way.
I suspect that majority of native Europeans in Sweden, Holland, Belgien, France would also prefer to have much fewer Muslims.
I am concerned that Israel is being painted into a corner by the Biden Administration which is offering aid to Israel. I don’t know for sure what the aid is contingent upon, but the Biden Administration has made it known to Americans that it expects Israel to allow humanitarian aid in to Gaza. There is no such thing as humanitarian aid for the people of Gaza. Hamas will receive whatever it is sent, and use it for military purposes and other purposes to sustain the genocidal attacks on Israeli Jews.
Israel needs to be clear with the international community: there is no difference between the people and Hamas or the people of the West Bank and Hamas. They are a unit. They are all committed to genocide. They voted for Hamas in a landslide.
Genocide is being committed by the Palestinian people PERIOD. The Palestinian people need to be seen as a genocidal army, not as innocent civilians. They are all brought up all their lives thinking that their land has been criminally usurped by the Jews, who have no rights to the land and who are to blame for every unhappiness in their lives. They have one purpose in life, and that is to kill as many Jews as possible.
The West has been co-opted by Islamic propaganda. Obama in particular, made sure to put as many Islamists in the US government as he could.
The Obama/Biden government is allied with Iran, Turkey, Qatar, Hezbollah, and Hamas. They are trying to appear concerned about Israel but they have given Iran around $60 billion dollars while they are considering giving Israel $14 Billion dollars. They have given half a billion dollars to the genocidal Palestinians so far and want to give $100 million dollars to the genocidal Gazans after they have committed genocide! Wake up people!
The American government is rushing personnel and naval assets to the eastern Mediterranean, at the same time as they seem to want to give Israel excuse after excuse not to go into Gaza. The longer they hold up the defeat of Hamas, the harder it is going to get.
I do not understand the Israeli government’s plan at this point, and perhaps that is purposeful, to keep Hamas guessing and unsure of where and when the Israeli attack will come.
I like it not that the US government thinks it can micromanage this conflict which they created and foisted upon the Israeli people. All the people who have been butchered by Hamas would never have been butchered, would be alive today, had Biden not given Iran $60 billion dollars, giving them the green light to do what they do best: terrorize and kill Jews.
The US government has blood on their hands and Israel should not feel hindered by them. The US government is as guilty as Iran is, and Israel doesn’t feel the need to ask permission from Iran to attack Gaza.
I have not seen indications from the US government that they understand that they have encouraged and abetted genocide. They have made no indication that they are going to stop Iran’s oil trade, and they keep wanting to give more and more money to terrorists.
Israel must not empower the US to have a say over how they defend their own people. The US is not a neutral arbiter, but an adversary trying to pretend they are friendly. It is a specific method that Muslims have in war to pretend they are friendly for achieving their ultimate purpose of genocide. Lying and murder are acceptable to them, if done in the name of Allah. For all intents and purposes the US government is acting like an agent of Allah.
I am against the 2nd, 3rd and 4th decisions, which take the disposition of the enemy put of Israeli hands and invite outside interference.
AND, it maintains Gaza as an Arab enclave which actually should be part of Israel, populated by only Jews. The Gazans are Egyptians and should be repatriated, or anywhere OUT of Gaza.
The pie-in-the-sky 6th Decision about the Americans handling Hezballah is just that- wishful thinking. The US is not going to War against the Lebanese terrorists, it is an Israeli concern, and Israel should deal with it .No one else will. and they cannot be left intact as a permanent threat to the peace, safety and prosperity of our People.
Gaza people have time and again shown their support for the terrorists. Including beingpart of the genocidal attack that began this War. Many were “civilians” slaughtering innocent Jews, babies beheaded, horror personified.
Gaza must be cleared of Arabs, and those above decisions that include surrounding Arab states should include the disposition of whatever Gazans remain there after the War. They have millions of almost uninhabited space. They don’t want them because they KNOW that the Gaza people are terrorists at heart. They encouraged this-from a distance, but now should do their “duty” to help their brothers.
The 4th Geneva convention has always mitigated against Israel’s national rights.