T. Belman. As a former Israeli Amb to the US, I must respect his opinion. He offers new information, namely that MBS says he likes the “security guarantees and US weapon systems” providing Israel offers “gestures” to Palestinians. This is contrary to what MBS told Abbas when he recently visited. Also the offer is less than MBS has asked for recently. Did he really say he is content with the offer? Finally, Biden is asking more from Israel, than gestures. Will Biden back off. Time will tell. I don’t think Deri will make a difference unless he backs Smotrich and Ben Gvir. Then its game over for normalization.
If you connect all the dots, you will get a signing ceremony on the White House lawn between Israel and Saudi Arabia. But getting there won’t be easy.
By Michael Oren, ISRAEL HAYOM 31.7.23
When we look at Israel’s situation – in domestic politics and diplomatically – no clear picture emerges; we have to break it down into components.
First, the US. America is on the eve of the 2024 presidential race, with politically beaten President Joe Biden fighting for survival. He has to deal with the ongoing misconduct of his son Hunter; his support for Ukraine has been a source of growing consternation with Republicans; and in the Middle East the Saudis have turned their backs on him and asked China to mediate between them and Iran.
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He, therefore, needs an impressive foreign policy accomplishment. According to New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman, such an accomplishment could come in the form of the establishment of ties between Riyadh and Jerusalem, potentially transforming the Middle East. Biden said over the weekend that some progress has been made and a deal could be in the offing.
Second component: Saudi Arabia. US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan visited the kingdom last week and offered Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman security guarantees and US weapon systems in exchange for a normalization deal with Israel. The prince responded favorably, so long as Israel makes a gesture toward the Palestinians, such as a settlement moratorium or issuing more permits for Palestinian construction on Area C. But such a gesture cannot be taken by the Israeli government in its current makeup.<
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Third component: Israel. Last week the Knesset passed a key part of the judicial reform – the amendment to the Basic Law: Judiciary – which limits the ability of courts to strike down ministerial decisions even if they are unreasonable. Why did the Coalition choose to pass this part of the reform rather than the measures dealing with the appointment of justices and the override clause that can nullify court decisions? The answer was given by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s comments, from which it appears that he wanted that bill enacted so that Shas leader Aryeh Deri could return to the cabinet, after having been disqualified on reasonableness grounds. The focus on Deri’s criminal past has all but obscured his rather moderate views on foreign policy. By having the bill passed and bringing him back, he could serve as a counterweight to Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, paving the way for the gesture for the Palestinians.<
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If Smotrich or Ben-Gvir threaten to leave the Coalition, they would be replaced by Benny Gantz and the State Party – a maneuver that is already in the works.<
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Connecting all those three components into one big puzzle will allow Biden to preside over a peace signing ceremony on the White House lawn – an optic that he so desperately needs. The Saudis will get the weapons and guarantees they have long asked for, but the big winner will be Israel: Not only will it finally see an end to the conflict with the Sunni world, but will get access to the massive Saudi economy, and from there to the markets in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Pakistan. Israel’s diplomatic, economic, and strategic standing will improve manyfold.
Connecting all those dots won’t be easy, and it will depend to a large extent on Netanyahu’s actions. Former Mossad chief Tamir Pardo has claimed that Netanyahu secretly controls his cabinet ministers despite the fact that they appear to be loose cannons and generate negative headlines. If that is the case, Netanyahu would be able to deliver a historic deal by every measure and perhaps even bring about an end to the current turbulence rocking Israel.<
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“He, (Biden) therefore, needs an impressive foreign policy accomplishment. According to New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman, such an accomplishment could come in the form of the establishment of ties between Riyadh and Jerusalem, potentially transforming the Middle East. Biden said over the weekend that some progress has been made and a deal could be in the offing.”
Bibi, should play a game of high stakes poker. If Biden wants the deal, make Biden put his money on the table, make America give so many concessions to Israel, that Biden gets a nosebleed.
I recall in 2015, two weeks before Bibi spoke before the US Congress about Israel’s opposition to the JPOA, Oren called on Bibi to cancel his historic speech, and bow down to US pressure, even as Oren ignored the reality that that speech was the culmination of a campaign which Bibi began at least two years earlier to block the ratification of the pinnacle policy measure of the Obama presidency, the JCPOA Treaty.
Fast forward to today, we see Oren making a similar call for Bibi to once again knuckle under and bow down to US pressure and accept a deal which supports an existential threat to Israel, but this time it would be related to reviving the well-failed TSS. This is in sheer contrast to the reality that Bibi has never honestly supported the TSS, not even when the PA was far more stable and far more reliable and while there was not also an ongoing terror war being waged on the streets of Israel.
Oren is clearly someone to whom we should listen and consider what he is suggesting, but with all due respect to the former ambassador, what he is suggesting is that Israel should surrender its security interests to gain diplomatic and economic advantages which will be quite irrelevant after Israel is completely destroyed should it accept his proposed position. Hence, I won’t hold my breath for things to materialize as Oren describes that they should today just as I did not do so back in 2015 when Oren was actually inside the govt and not outside of it.
Do recall that Bibi was the man who stood up to Obama in Obama’s own Congress and said ‘NO’ and I think he will not be more pliable under Obama’s third term in office than he was under his second term. Consequently, I believe that Oren calling on Bibi to accept American demands which are contrary to Israel’s interests will prove just as unproductive in 2023 as they did in 2015. But time will tell.