Dents in the Ties Between UAE and Israel

T. Belman. Since this Report, I have gotten a number of emails which support the idea that the Abraham Accords are not what they are cracked up to be especially regarding the UAE.

Jafaj Intelligence  January 6, 2023

1. Summary: The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has issued a very harshly worded press statement protesting a visit to the premises of Al-Aqsa Mosque by Itamar Ben-Gvir, the Israeli Minister of National Security. In the statement, UAE emphasized the need for “the comprehensive protection of Al-Aqsa Mosque and that stopping the serious and provocative violations therein, and to respect the role of the sisterly Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan in caring for Sanctities and Waqf in accordance with international law and the existing historical situation.”

This was followed by the postponement of a state-visit by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to the UAE. The UAE’s sudden hostility appears to stem from its desire to sustain the ongoing status quo between Israel and the Palestinians. In addition, pressure from the Jordanian monarchy, particularly Queen Rania, has influenced UAE President Mohammad Ben Zayed into developing less-friendly positions towards Israel. It also serves as a wakeup call to all of those in the region to the shortcomings of the Abrahamic Accords, which have worked to some extent, but cannot go further without involving a potentially new Palestinian leadership and neutralizing the obstructionism created by the King of Jordan. Peace between UAE and Israel is expected to endure but may just become another cold peace like the ones Israel has with Jordan and Egypt.

2. On the 3rd of January 2023, Israel National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir visited the Al-Aqsa Mosque, Islam’s third holiest site and the site of the Temple Mount. The Palestinians and Jordanians received the ultra-conservative Minister’s visit with anger. Jordan, by treaty, controls the Islamic Waqf of Jerusalem which includes full administrative control over the Mosque, and as such, the visit was considered a direct provocation to the Hashemite Kingdom and violation of the agreement. These events happened shortly after the King of Jordan threatened Israel with a “confrontation” in an internationally broadcast CNN interview if “the Jerusalem red line was crossed by the new Israeli government.” What came as a surprise though was a quick and unapologetic statement of condemnation from the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

3. Hours after Ben Gavir’s visit, the UAE issued a press statement through its official news agency “strongly condemning Ben-Gavir’s infiltration into Al-Aqsa Mosque.” The Agency reported that the UAE’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation said, “It has renewed the UAE’s firm position on the necessity of comprehensive protection of Al-Aqsa Mosque and stopping the serious and provocative violations therein”, and “the need to respect the role of the sisterly Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan in caring for Sanctities and Waqf in accordance with international law and the existing historical situation, and without prejudice to her authority and powers of managing the endowments of Jerusalem and the affairs of Al-Aqsa Mosque.” Further, the UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs called on the Israeli authorities to “reduce the escalation and not take steps to exacerbate tension and instability in the region.”

4. At the same time, an announced visit to UAE by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu was “rescheduled.” The Israeli Prime Minister’s Office confirmed that they were rescheduling the visit “to take place later this month.” Although no official reason was given, this has not prevented the Arab media from celebrating the news as allegedly UAE President Mohammad Ben Zayed “cancelled his meeting with Netanyahu.” The UAE’s vast media empire and network of social media influencers, has not dismissed these claims. This signifies that UAE Officials are content with what has been reported.

5. According to JaFaJ sources, Jordan’s King flew to Abu Dhabi to meet with Mohammad Ben Zayed on the 4th of January, right after the announcement of the “rescheduling” of Netanyahu’s visit. According to the source, this was done as a “clear symbolic gesture of mutual solidarity between Abdullah and Ben Zayed.” Additionally, UAE’s tightly controlled social media influencers expressed solidarity with Jordan in particular “the Hashemite Custodianship of the Al-Aqsa Mosque.”

The Jordanian Role
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6. JaFaJ sources in the region have noticed that the hostility exhibited by the UAE towards Israel has grown. A Western political source close to both the Israelis and the UAE told JaFaJ that “This is all the work of Jordan’s King. Abdullah is begging Ben Zayed for support and pushing him towards antagonizing Israel because his Kingdom is spinning out of control.” The source added that, “The UAE’s attitude has developed in large part thanks to the influence of the King’s wife, Rania, rather than the King himself. Rania has played on Ben Zayed’s chivalry and calls him sometimes several times a week pleading for help, claiming that the Israelis are plotting against her husband and the throne.”

7. The source added that “kneejerk reactions are not in Ben Zayed’s nature.” “He is very calm, but can be easily influenced by those who plead to his humane side. Here, Ben Zayed apparently believes that he is saving an Arab woman in distress and is willing to risk his ties with Israel for it.” The source continued by saying that “At best, he is not calculating the amount of damage he is causing himself.”

8. An Israeli political figure who is no longer in the Israeli government spoke with JaFaJ, and dismissed the sentimental analogy provided by the Western source. He opined “This is not about UAE’s love for the King or his wife. The UAE wants to ‘butter its muffin’ on both sides. On one hand, they want to make peace with the Israelis and enjoy both military and intelligence cooperation, but on the other hand, they want to keep the status quo in Jerusalem and the territories [the West Bank]. This way the UAE thinks they are going to rise on top by playing both ends against the middle.” He added, “We respect the UAE, we appreciate Sheikh Ben Zayed and his brother Tahnoun, but they need to understand that we are not stupid, and that nobody can dictate to us what we do with our country, neither UAE nor their friend Abdullah [King of Jordan].” [COMMENT: Sheikh Tahnoun Ben Zayed is the brother of UAE’s President Mohammad Ben Zayed, who also serves as the UAE’s national security advisor. He is known for having good and cooperative ties with the Israeli. END COMMENT].

9. An Israeli intelligence source reported to JaFaJ that “We have good ties with the UAE. They know that we need to work together.” The source continued by saying that “disagreements happen between even the friendliest of countries,” and he pointed to the US and Canada as an example. The source when asked about the UAE’s recent hostility, and he responded by saying, “The UAE and Jordan are pushing us to keep the status quo on the Temple Mount and to sustain the peace process. Somehow, the Jordanians are obsessed with the thought that we are about to take over the Aqsa Mosque. This is not true, but it seems that the Jordanians are spreading this falsehood and have convinced the UAE’s leaders of it”.

A Sobering Situation
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10. The recent hostility exhibited by the UAE against Israel, comprises a moment of reckoning for the Israelis and many who have built too much hope on the Abrahamic Accords. In 2020, when the said accords were signed between Israel and four Arab states, UAE, Sudan, Bahrain and Morocco, many decision makers in Washington DC and Jerusalem were overly optimistic. Some went as far as to claim that the Abrahamic Accords would roll across the Arab world and mark an end to the Arab-Israeli conflict. The accords were the brainchild of President Trump’s top advisor and son in law, Jared Kushner. Thanks to their actions, the UAE has just proven that the accords were just a tactic for some Arab nations and not a strategy or a token of eternal friendship with the Jewish state.

11. The UAE’s recent actions have exposed several holes in the Abrahamic Accords. The first is the fact that it is impossible to achieve peace between Arabs and Israelis without the Palestinians. A DC-based diplomat who has served in the Middle East for over a decade confided the following to JaFaJ, “Kushner wanted something to show for his accomplishment, and when he found no traction with either the Palestinians or the Jordanian King, he decided to tackle the matter from the outside and not the opposite. At least this is what he claims. In reality, you cannot achieve peace for Israel across the region when there is no peace in Jerusalem itself.” The source added, “What Kushner did was to go around the edges, ignoring the centre of the problem. As a result, peace between UAE and Israel has not provided Israel with any leverage within the region but generated sway and good press for the UAE rulers, and Kushner was literally beating around the bush claiming this is going to eventually cut the big tree.”

12. When asked what Kushner could have done because the Palestinians were not cooperating, the source said, “Kushner should have sought new leadership for the Palestinians and the Trump administration should have taken a tougher stance on the King of Jordan. The King remains deeply involved in the trouble in Jerusalem and the Al-Aqsa Mosque. The Israelis did provide evidence of the Jordanian Waqf’s involvement in passing guns to terrorists who shot at Israeli police at the Mosque itself, but nothing was done about the King” [COMMENT: The source was referring to a terrorist attack that took place on July 14th, 2017, at the premises of Haram Al-Shareef of Al-Aqsa Mosque. Two Israeli police officers were shot dead, and three gunmen were killed. END COMMENT].

13. A Western intelligence source reported to JaFaJ that, “Technically, Israel has not gained much from peace with the UAE, nothing more than public diplomacy. That is because the UAE has had secret ties with Israel for three decades, long before their peace agreement, and not much has changed as far as I have witnessed.” The source continued by saying, “the level of intelligence cooperation between Israel and UAE has not necessarily increased, but keep in mind, they need Israel and not the opposite. It is also not clear if Israel’s peace with UAE has improved the chances for a regional peace agreement. For example, a peace with Saudi Arabia would open the gateways for other Muslim countries to join. That is because Saudi Arabia is the custodian of Islam’s two most holy sites, and even though the UAE is wealthy and agile, it does not have an important a religious status.”

14. The source added that, “There are profound differences on major issues and the Israelis walked into this in goodwill, but the UAE has not yet changed their stance on two major issues: their political and economic cooperation with Iran and their stance on the two state solution.” When asked why, the source was very clear, “they still want the Palestinians to establish their state on pre-1967 borders, including East Jerusalem as their capital.” The source then admitted that “Israel will never agree to this.” [COMMENT: UAE sustains substantial economic ties with Iran and general good political communications with it. Unlike Saudi Arabia, the UAE does not treat Iran as an enemy. END COMMENT]

The Sky Has Not Fallen, Yet
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15. An Israeli diplomat reported to JaFaJ that “ties with the UAE remain good despite the setback.” The source added, “We have become used to negativity from our Arab partners, and we realize that change will take time. We are patient and we see the UAE as our trusted partner in the Gulf region, and what we disagree on we will negotiate”.

Conclusion
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16. The UAE’s position proves that making peace between the Arabs states and Israel is not as easy as some American and Israeli politicians have thought it to be. The difficult nature of the process is not only due to conflicting ideology, but also the fact that many Arab regimes have done so well under the region’s status quo, a status quo that includes the Arab-Israeli conflict. Therefore, most of them have fought hard against any changes that may result in ending the conflict. Also, it is necessary for Western and Israeli decision makers to understand the oral and emotional cultural aspects of the Middle East, and not mistake verbal warmth and welcomeness by some Arab rulers as signs of drastic change. For the foreseen future, it is unlikely that the UAE will change its position regarding the “two state solution and a Palestinian state on pre-1967 war borders with Eastern Jerusalem as the Palestinians’ capital.” One of the main reasons for this is because of the close ties between UAE and the King of Jordan, who conveniently adopts the same position and sees any wavering from it as a threat to his regime. Therefore, the UAE is not likely to compromise its friendship with Jordan’s King for the sake of better ties with Israel. In the end, a state of “cold peace” will be the future outcome of the ties between both countries.