Eight Steps Biden Could Take to Show Netanyahu He Means Business

T. Belman.  Neither of these steps will deter Israel. Even if Biden chooses to not veto an anti-Israel UNSC resolution as Obama did, Israel will not be deterred from its agenda. Passing Judicial Reform and keeping J&S are way too important.

Washington has tried to play nice with the extremist Israeli government, but as its messages seemingly fall on deaf ears, it does have tougher options at its disposal

By Ben Samuels, HAARETZ

WASHINGTON – This week’s horrific scenes in the West Bank, when settlers attacked scores of Palestinians in Hawara in response to a deadly terror attack, raise more questions about the strategy the Biden administration has adopted in the months since Benjamin Netanyahu’s extremist government came to power.

U.S. officials have undoubtedly dedicated significant resources to preventing matters deteriorating out of control. Yet despite the Biden administration’s well-intended efforts, the Israeli-Palestinian arena is now at boiling point.

The two most significant U.S. officials dedicated to foreign policy – National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and Secretary of State Antony Blinken – took successive trips to the region. The latter also told senior members of his team to remain in the region after his January visit, in order to further pursue “constructive ideas for practical steps … to lower the temperature.”

U.S. ambassador to Israel Tom Nides has also devoted significant man-hours and resources to the problem, with all parties involved keeping a watchful eye on the start of Ramadan – a historically incendiary time – on March 22.

Brett McGurk, the White House’s Middle East coordinator who spearheaded President Joe Biden’s visit to the Middle East last July, was also the administration’s point person for last Sunday’s talks between regional security officials in Aqaba, which led to a communiqué detailing mutual de-escalation measures.

Soon after the communiqué was published, U.S. officials called the Aqaba summit the most significant meeting regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in over a decade. However, they were immediately met with denials from senior Israeli politicians concerning the communiqué’s details or outright rejection of measures such as to “stop discussion of any new settlement units for four months and to stop authorization of any outposts for six months.”

Even worse were the optics of the summit taking place on the same day as the pogrom by Israeli settlers in Hawara, where scores of homes and cars were torched after the killing of Israeli brothers Hillel and Yagel Yaniv. One Palestinian, Sameh Aqtash, died during the rampage and many others were injured. U.S. officials immediately condemned the violence on both sides, warning Israel that they expected full accountability while stressing the fragility of the progress achieved at Aqaba.

The Biden administration’s self-imposed rhetorical limitations of “relaying deep trouble and concern” has created a reality where Netanyahu and his far-right coalition members do not fear accountability, openly thumbing a collective nose at the White House while pursuing their extremist agenda.

These actions in the Palestinian arena come as Netanyahu continues to disregard the explicit desires of the administration and members of Congress to slow down his judicial coup, which would endanger both Israeli democracy and the bedrock of U.S.-Israel ties.

What can Biden do?

This begs the question: What measures could the Biden administration adopt that would let Netanyahu and his government know they mean business and to make them recognize the severity of the situation?

One step would be to shelve a potential Netanyahu visit to Washington. The prime minister has placed a premium on such a trip due to the optics an Oval Office meeting with Biden would provide back home. It would also give him the ultimate platform to advocate for measures that would help pave the way toward normalized ties with Saudi Arabia.

While such a visit has been placed on the back burner until after Ramadan ends on April 20, as reported by The Times of Israel, the administration could forcefully and explicitly state that such a visit will not occur until Netanyahu takes control of his government.

Additionally, such a visit would very likely be accompanied by an address to Congress organized by House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. Judging by past precedent, Netanyahu and his Republican allies would use such a moment to domestically politicize current affairs in Israel and make the Biden administration’s already difficult work even harder.

Measures do not need to be limited to rhetoric. One area of bilateral policy that could be utilized is Israel’s potential entry into the coveted U.S. visa waiver program.

The Biden administration (with ambassador Nides steering the matter) and successive Israeli coalitions have prioritized Israel’s entry – which would spare Israeli citizens the time-consuming and expensive process of obtaining visas for U.S. visits, allow for 90-day visits for tourism or business, and catalyze economic cooperation.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, left, meeting with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas during a visit to Ramallah in January. Credit: Majdi Mohammed/AP

Since Israel took a massive step toward entry in January after meeting the 3-percent benchmark for rejected visa applications, U.S. Embassy officials have continued to prioritize ensuring Israel meets the rest of the requirements by this September’s deadline.

Perhaps the worst-kept secret concerning the process is that this year presents a rare window for Israel’s entry due to low application numbers because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Should Israel fail to meet the deadline, it is highly unlikely it will manage to gain entry moving forward.

The Biden administration could send a strong message by using Israel’s attempted entry as either a bargaining chip or outright removing it from the agenda – making clear that such contempt from Israeli officials will not be met unchallenged.

Beyond the visa waiver program, the Biden administration could explicitly reestablish U.S. policy relating to the settlements in the West Bank, after then-Secretary of State Mike Pompeo declared in 2019 that they were “not per se inconsistent with international law.”

This policy, it bears noting, was formulated by the Kohelet Policy Forum – the right-wing Israeli think tank behind Netanyahu’s attempts to gut Israel’s judiciary.

Pompeo later spearheaded the change in policy over being able to label settlement products as “Made in Israel,” effectively erasing the distinction between goods produced in Israel itself and the occupied territories.

The Biden administration could denounce the Pompeo settlement doctrine through word and deed, restoring previous U.S. precedent and making abundantly clear the dangers with which Biden views Israel’s settlement enterprise.

It could also prove its point if – and undoubtedly when – the matter returns to the UN Security Council. The Americans helped avert a Security Council resolution on the settlements last month, with U.S. officials fearful of having to use their veto when they wanted the focus to be on Russia’s war in Ukraine. The resulting symbolic UN presidential statement expressing concern and dismay over settlement expansion, offered in lieu of the resolution, was the first time in nine years that the United States backed such a measure.

Moving forward, the United States could finally abstain from vetoing a UN resolution on the matter and instead allow a resolution consistent with well-established U.S. policy to move forward.

Such international efforts would logically expand to the Biden administration’s key role in pushing Israel’s regional integration – most notably via the Negev Forum, which brings together Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, Egypt and the Americans.

While integration remains in both U.S. and Israeli interests, the Biden administration could make a point by avoiding clearing the path for every regional project where Israel requires U.S. assistance.

If Israel continues to ignore the Biden administration’s demands, it could take more dramatic measures. One of these would be to summon U.S. ambassador to Israel Mike Herzog to express deep dismay at the Israeli government’s ongoing actions.

If Netanyahu’s coalition still doesn’t get the message, the Biden administration could briefly but pointedly summon Nides back to Washington for “consultations” regarding next steps.

If this still doesn’t get the point across, this could then lead to a formal reassessment within the National Security Council and State Department of how the U.S. should engage with this Israeli government.

Judging by the U.S. administration’s current approach, these harsher developments are admittedly less likely. However, this moment may not allow for a “business as usual” approach – even if some U.S. officials would prefer to view it as another “cycle of violence.” Unprecedented times may require unprecedented measures.