By Amir Avivi, ISDF
I did an interview with Newsmax this week about the war games exercise that the United States is currently conducting with Israel. Click here to watch the interview.
I shared with them a very simply, but important message:
We see the west with very strong military and technological capabilities, much stronger than Russia and the East. But we see zero willingness to use them. At the moment you [The West] are not willing to use force, and the other side is not afraid to act violently. This needs to change because we saw how ineffective sanctions are.
Sanctions are not the ultimate weapon. Willingness to use force – this is deterrence.
I received an overwhelming amount of positive feedback on our recent webinar about Iran, and I thank all of you for that. The webinar recording is available below.
Brigadier General (Res.) Amir Avivi
Founder and Chairman of IDSF Habithonistim
Click here to watch the recording.
IDSF Foreign Diplomat Briefing
IDSF held its first briefing for foreign diplomats in 2023 this week. The briefing was based on the recently released English translation of IDSF’s 2023 National Assessment of Strategic Priorities. The briefing was moderated by IDSF’s Director of Research Or Yissachar. Brigadier General (Res.) Amir Avivi spoke about changes in the balance of power throughout the world that impact Israel. IDSF Advisory Board member Brigadier General (Res.) Yossi Kuperwasser spoke about the expanding Iran network its ripple effects. IDSF Advisory Board member Lieutenant Colonel (Res.) Maurice Hirsch spoke about the networks of State actors and NGOs that target Israel. IDSF Advisory Board member Major (Res.) Lilach Ashtar addressed the Palestinian Arena and what we can expect in 2023.
The off-the-record briefing was attended by all of the major embassies. This includes the US, EU, China, Russia, India, UK, Germany, France, Canada, Australia, and South Africa.
Earlier in the week, IDSF held a briefing on the future of the Abraham Accords. Brigadier General (Res.) Amir Avivi, IDSF Advisory Board Member Brigadier General (Res.) Zvika Haimovich and UAE national and former diplomat Omar Al-Busaidy spoke. They addressed the security elements that led to the normalization agreements. The also spoke about what is necessary to deepen the agreements, and how to expand to other countries.
Western “Arrangement” vis-à-vis Iranian Aggression: Risks and Opportunities for Israel
BRIGADIER GENERAL (RES.) YOSSI KUPERWASSER
Iranian support for Russia increases Western frustration with Iran, but so far the West has avoided significant changes in its attitude toward Iran and its nuclear program, thereby creating a problematic de facto arrangement with Tehran.
The military aid Iran provides to Russia in its war against Ukraine, mainly through the supply of Shahed 136 UAVs (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles), effectively places Iran, despite its efforts to deny this, as a party to the war. As a result, the US administration stated that “Iran may be complicit in war crimes,” and after it became clear that the production of Iranian drones is based on parts produced in Western countries, including the US itself, the administration decided to take steps that would make it difficult for Iran to manufacture these aircraft. The rest of the Western countries were reacting merely with condemnations.
Western outrage against Iran recently stems both from its contribution to Russian attacks on civilian targets deep inside Ukraine and from the brutal suppression of demonstrations that have been ongoing for more than three months demanding greater freedom for Iranian citizens. These demands are interpreted by the Ayatollah regime, and with a great deal of justice, as a call to overthrow it. This is based not only on the explicit demand of many of the demonstrators and their supporters around the world, but also because, as an extremist Islamist regime, it understands that any substantive compromise it makes to please the public will be interpreted as weakness, will require a change in the nature of the regime, and will exacerbate the threat to its survival.
Click here to read the full article on our website.
From the IDSF Research Department
What do Israelis think about Israel’s needs in a military conflict?
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