T. Belman. Harel agrees with me.
“If Netanyahu gives Smotrich and Co. what they seek, it will likely happen because he believes he has no other choice. To remove the criminal threat hanging over his head in a Jerusalem courtroom, Netanyahu desperately needs the support of the Haredim and the far-right to complete a few rapid legislative moves. The chance of any security stability will be sacrificed in favor of the constitutional revolution.“
Except that I happen to believe the pair will enhance security stability rather than impair it.
Within a few months Netanyahu may find himself and his new government facing a grave security crisis in the territories, alongside a severe strain in relations with the U.S. and the European Union
By Amos Harel, HAARETZ 15.11.22
The string of reports publicized over the past week is intended to gradually make the unbelievable seem normal. Ministerial appointments which until the election may have seemed delusional – Itamar Ben-Gvir to the Public Security Ministry, Bezalel Smotrich to the Defense Ministry – have undergone a quick process of legitimization through a calculated series of media leaks. The appointment of a convicted felon, Ben-Gvir, as the ministerial overseer of all police activity, hardly raises an eyebrow anymore. The political pundits are too busy with the nitty gritty of the horse trading underway, between the prime minister-in-waiting, Benjamin Netanyahu, and his prospective coalition partners.
The possibility of Smotrich indeed receiving the defense portfolio, along with the Public Security Ministry and a cabinet seat for his partner Ben-Gvir, is now presented as a perfectly likely scenario. If it doesn’t come to pass in the end, it seems that the reason will be power struggles between Religious Zionism and the ultra-Orthodox parties, or demands by senior Likud figures. It won’t happen due to the simple, obvious reason: Filling such positions with politicians with extremist ideologies, a background of highly questionable statements and prior run-ins with the security forces may hasten another entanglement in the Palestinian arena and place the government on a collision course with the United States and the international community.
Netanyahu does not play by himself, or on an empty court. In the two weeks since his electoral triumph, two major developments have taken place in the international theater. First, the red wave projected by American pollsters failed to materialize, and the Democrats held on to their control of the Senate. Contrary to predictions, the Biden administration will not be completely paralyzed in the next two years. If President Joe Biden turns into a lame duck, it will be due to advanced age and diminished capacity, not political exigencies. Under these circumstances, it is difficult to see the Americans normalizing relations with major ministries controlled by Ben-Gvir and Smotrich, let alone accept without protest unilateral Israeli moves, put on hold for years, such as “legalizing” the illegal West Bank outposts.
Second, a UN committee has decided to approve a resolution proposed by the Palestinian Authority, to have the organization request a formal opinion by the International Court of Justice in The Hague regarding the impact of the Israeli occupation in the West Bank. Absent a diplomatic process, and while Israel is ruled by a government more extreme than its predecessors, it is not hard to guess that the Palestinians will seek more such initiatives in the global arena. The result will be a prolonged trench battle, while intensifying legal action against Israel. No “diplomatic tsunami” is necessarily forthcoming, as Ehud Barak mistakenly predicted in 2011. The world has other problems right now, chief among them the war in Ukraine and the European energy crisis. And yet, Netanyahu is expected to encounter a more hostile front than in the past
These expected developments will add to an already tense situation on the ground. In March a Palestinian terror wave was reignited, to which Israel responded by expanded military action, mostly in the northern West Bank. After over 130 dead Palestinians and 26 dead Israelis, there is no sign of a return to quiet. The attempted terror attacks, beefed-up IDF forces in the West Bank and the seamline area, the arrest operations in Nablus and Jenin – all these are part of a new daily reality, taking place with more intensity than we have known at any time since 2016.
Record-breaking Abbas
Against this backdrop, longtime Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas’ grasp on events is weakening. Potential successors are already warming up on the sidelines for a battle, which may get violent, for the chairmanship. Abbas turns 87 on Tuesday. He is likely the oldest active leader in the Arab world. (Salman, king of Saudi Arabia, is a month and a half younger, and his son Mohammed runs the country in practice.) Not long ago, entrepreneur Dr. Kira Radinsky claimed that the human who will live to 200 years of age is already alive. The IDF, for its part, would be ecstatic if that record-breaking individual turned out to be Abbas.
It is doubtful whether Smotrich and Co. share that sentiment. Netanyahu knows that his partners’ views are very far from the way the security establishment brass – the current chief of staff and his successor, the head of the Shin Bet security service, the Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories, the police commissioner – understand the circumstances in the Palestinian theater.
If Netanyahu gives Smotrich and Co. what they seek, it will likely happen because he believes he has no other choice. To remove the criminal threat hanging over his head in a Jerusalem courtroom, Netanyahu desperately needs the support of the Haredim and the far-right to complete a few rapid legislative moves. The chance of any security stability will be sacrificed in favor of the constitutional revolution.
In such a case, an unprecedented situation will take shape in which half the members of the cabinet either didn’t serve in the IDF at all, or served a drastically shortened term. Many of their children and grandchildren didn’t serve and have no intention of doing so (a matter the Haredim hope to finalize through a new recruitment law.) Many of these ministers will make fateful decisions to embark on operations, even wars, without their families or constituents being in the front, or even second lines of fire.
To this add the relative inexperience of cabinet members in military and security matters. Save the military career of Gen (ret.) Yoav Gallant (Likud), and Arye Dery’s many years in the cabinet, this will be a lightweight assembly. In previous right-wing governments, the situation was reversed. A decade ago, experienced cabinet members such as Moshe Ya’alon, Dan Meridor, and Benny Begin made sure to restrain and block Netanyahu and Barak’s plans to launch an attack in Iran, whereas in 1982, Minister David Levy voiced balanced and restrained positions in the second Begin government, based on reports from his combat soldier sons fighting on the front lines in Beirut, which contradicted the misleading line fed by Defense Minister Ariel Sharon.
After Smotrich and Ben-Gvir settle into their new ministerial posts, we will see how pragmatic they are, to what extent they consent to bend their principles and delay the realization of their goals, in return for their newfound power. It’s worth recalling that in 1999, the settler representatives in the coalition toppled the first Netanyahu government, claiming that it was insufficiently right-wing. Half a year later, Barak defeated Netanyahu in the elections, leading the way to the Camp David summit with the Palestinians.
Within a few months Netanyahu may find himself within his new government facing a grave security crisis in the territories, alongside a severe strain in relations with the U.S. and the European Union – and this, without being able to predict how Iran will behave, and whether its new alliance with Russia will spur it to take another gamble en route to producing its first nuclear bomb. Under such circumstance, which are not an extreme-case scenario, Netanyahu may reconsider the makeup of his coalition. It seems that senior government posts await Smotrich and Ben-Gvir. The question is how long they will keep them for, and under what circumstances.
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