According to a new poll, the bloc led by Benjamin Netanyahu would fall to 60 seats if Bayit Hayehudi does not enter the next Knesset.
By MOSHE COHEN/MAARIV, MATAN WASSERMAN/MAARIV OCTOBER 14, 2022
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks with then justice minister Ayelet Shaked (L) during a vote at the assembly hall of the Israeli parliament on December 21, 2016, during the state budget vote for 2017-2018.
(photo credit: YONATAN SINDEL/FLASH90)<
The gas agreement with Lebanon, which sparked political tensions against the backdrop of the wave of attacks and clashes in the West Bank, resulted in a minor change in the bloc map ahead of the elections for the 25th Knesset in about two and a half weeks.
According to a Panels Politics poll, conducted for Maariv, it appears that after last week, when the bloc led by opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu reached 61 seats, this week it dropped to 60 seats following the strengthening of Yesh Atid at the expense of the Religious Zionist party, so that once again there is no clear winner between the blocs in the coming election drama.
According to the new poll, the Bayit Hayehudi party led by Ayelet Shaked strengthened to three mandates, but is still below the electoral threshold.
However, if the head of the opposition and the Likud, MK Binyamin Netanyahu, were to come out with a call to vote for Bayit Hayehudi, the list would pass the electoral threshold and the bloc led by Netanyahu would then have a majority of 62 MKs, according to the poll.
The poll found that the Likud party would earn 32 seats, Yesh Atid would earn 24 seats, the Religious Zionist party would earn 13 seats and the National Unity party would earn 12 seats.
nu would earn six seats, Meretz and Labor would earn five seats each and Hadash-Ta’al and Ra’am would earn four seats each.
This would leave the Netanyahu-led bloc with 60 seats and the bloc making up the current coalition with 56 seats.
What parties will not make it into the next Knesset?
According to the poll, the Bayit Hayehudi party would still be under the electoral threshold with 2.7% of the vote. (The electoral threshold sits at 3.25% of the vote)
The Calcalit party, the Balad party, the Economic Freedom party, the Free, Democratic Israel party and the Fiery Youth party would also not reach the electoral threshold.
In response to the scenario in which Netanyahu would call for voters to support the Bayit Hayehudi party led by Shaked, the results would change to: Likud – 31 seats, Yesh Atid – 23, Religious Zionist – 12, National Unity – 11, Shas – 8, United Torah Judaism – 7, Yisrael Beytenu – 6, Meretz – 5, Labor – 4, Hadash-Ta’al – 4, Ra’am – 4, and Bayit Hayehudi with 4 seats.
707 panel members participated in the poll which was conducted by Menachem Lazar, the director of Panels Politics. The poll was conducted on a representative sample of the adult population in the State of Israel aged 18 and over, both Jews and Arabs.
The survey was conducted on October 12-13, and the maximum sampling error is 3.7%.
@PELONI-
I quite agree, It’s as if “whom the gods wish to destroy, they first make mad” S haked has always been strongly Right Wing. Her whole life shows this, from the time she was very young. She was not responsible for Bennett’s obsession to sit in the PM’s chair, and she should have parted company right there. But they’ve been “joined at the hip” for over 10 years in politics and Bennett had always been Right Wing too….until this craze hit him. So I don’t condemn her.
Netanyahu is making the biggest mistake of his career. If he gets in despite his attacks on Shaked he’ll be lucky.
The interviews I read show that Sara has a lot to do with his attitude to Shaked and she kept putting her 2 cents worth in about her. . The stories about her uncontrollable temper are likely based in fact, and facing them is not palatable to the PM. In fact I see one of them below.
This is utter folly:
Netanyahu decides to steamroll Shaked in last stretch of campaign – report
If this report is accurate, it is likely that it will be difficult for the Right to win this election.
This being said, as Meretz, Labor, Jewish Home, Israel Beitenu as well as both the Joint Lists and Raam are all straddling the minimum threshold, all just over the threshold with the exception of Jewish Home. It would not be unreasonable to be concerned that any of these parties, or multiples of them, might fail to cross the threshold due to either low turnout among the respective supporters or due to high turnout of supporters of all the other parties. Should the Right lose Shaked and all the other parties pass the threshold, the statement above remains validly stated. It is, however, possible that Shaked, despite Bibi’s attempt to shoot her and himself in the foot with the same bullet, might pass the threshold while one or more of the Arab-Left parties fail to pass the threshold. This is the most important election in our lifetime. There is so much demanding that the Right successfully win this round of elections, which is why it is so foolish to see a petty squabble potentially upset the Rights ability to form a govt.
This is a mistake:
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/361208
Bibi and Ben Gvir can make what plans they care to design, but without 61 mandates they will only secure the Left’s ability to maintain and expand their power.
Bibi was very wise in the early stages of the election bridging the differences between members of the Right, even bringing Noam into an alliance after stating they would run alone. It was also reasonable, actually it was necessary to oppose Shaked’s party when she opposed forming a Right wing govt. But when she split with Handel/Hauser, ending their chances in this election, and reunited with the Jewish Home while also humbling herself and declaring her support of the Right, it was a unique moment for the Right to maximize their chances in winning this election, unfortunately one which has been completely ignored thus far. The chances of the Right forming a govt requires 61 mandates, and the likelihood of doing so without Jewish Home passing the threshold has been seen in the polls, for what it is worth, to not be very good. Bibi should have long ago ended his feud with Shaked and embraced her as he has championed the other members of the Right. The attacks on Shaked from the Right are almost continuous, and it seems the only thing that the Right and the Left agree upon is that she should drop out of the race. That being said, the Right has a very real chance of losing this election should Jewish Home fail to be included in the next Knessett.
It is not too late. Bibi must support Jewish Home and end these divisive and damaging attacks on Shaked. He is only lessening the chances of his own victory by pursuing them further.
How on earth did Yesh Atid gain a point at the expense of Religious Zionism? That makes no sense. Personalities, issues, flipping a coin? How many voters is one mandate? Who are these people? It is this just another possibly flawed computer model based on a small sampling.
As in the US when it’s close, there must be a tiny percentage of swing voters who keep changing their minds. I think it would be more productive to analyze this group of voters.
This is silly. It changes by one point back and forth every day but each time it’s a different set of musical chairs pundits want to move. In the US., this is called, “within the margin of error,” and therefore too close to call.