T. Belman. The west keeps suggesting that Putin is on the horns of a dilemma. Goldman claims otherwise, saying that it is Biden who is on the horns. How long will Biden prolong the war and the sanctions?
I expect that Putin will hold out for the Donbas and a land bridge to Crimea. He will insist that NATO agree to the deal he cuts with Zelinskyy and that all sanctions be lifted. If NATO refuses, they will be responsible for the carnage that follows just as they are responsible for for the carnage to date. Had NATO instructed Zelinskyy in no uncertain terms to avoid war, then Zelinskyy would have had no choice but to surrender to Putin’s demand.
BY DAVID P. GOLDMAN, PJ MEDIA APR 03, 2022
Evelyn Hockstein, Pool via AP
Another seance with the ghost of Cardinal Richelieu explains Putin’s objectives in Ukraine: Russia will ruin and depopulate Ukraine, the way Richelieu reduced large parts of Germany to cannibalism during the Thirty Years War. Shortly after I conjured the spirit of Europe’s greatest (and nastiest) strategist, the Telegram channel of Russia’s most fanatic nationalist, Aleksandr Dugin, featured the item below:
NATO says the military phase of the conflict in Ukraine is far from over. Of course, no one will let Zelensky make peace.
Ukraine is not a subject, but an object, where the Zelensky regime is not an actor, but a tool.
“Therefore, it is necessary to take into account the intentions of the enemy and use the period of the military phase of the operation to continue the methodical destruction of the military infrastructure of Ukraine, and taking into account NATO’s course of prolonging the conflict, it is advisable to consider moving on to the destruction of industrial facilities in the territories of Ukraine that lie outside our interests, especially paying attention to those objects that Ukraine, for obvious reasons, will not be able to restore. Later, such a convenient opportunity to complete the deindustrialization of Ukraine may not present itself.
An “opportunity to complete the deindustrialization of Ukraine.” Putin isn’t defeated or baffled or confused. He’s turning the crank on the meatgrinder. One doesn’t have to read too far into these lines to conclude that Putin hoped that Zelensky would cut a deal on his terms once Russia invaded, but when Zelensky refused to cut a deal, Putin moved to Option B, which is to erase most of Ukraine from the face of the earth. That’s not as difficult as it sounds. Putin will keep the bits he wants in the Southeast (Donetsk and Luhansk), leave the West to factory farming, and pound the rest to rubble with artillery and air power.
Ukraine’s national population of 45 million had fallen to just 33 million by 2020 because half the working-age population left. Another 5 million refugees have fled, and millions more will leave before Russian cannons fall silent. There won’t be enough working-age Ukrainians left to begin reconstruction. Putin claimed Feb. 23 that the West intended to turn Ukraine into a NATO missile platform with a 300-mile distance to Moscow. If he can’t get Ukraine to accept neutrality with Russian control over its southeast provinces, he’ll eliminate the threat Richelieu-style.
It’s horrible. But what’s going to stop Putin? To flatten Ukrainian cities, all the Russians need is artillery. All the Javelin anti-tank missiles in the world won’t do any good.
Meanwhile, Putin’s popularity is at 78% according to independent polls that Western analysts think are accurate, the ruble has climbed back to just about where it traded before the invasion, and the Russian economy is doing “better than you think,” according to the London Economist. Biden bragged that the U.S. had reduced “the ruble to rubble.” He spoke too soon. He declared that Putin “can’t stay in power.” Looks like he can and he will. China’s sitting on the sidelines enjoying the show, and India, which refused to support sanctions against its longstanding ally Russia, will sell the Russians’ consumer goods.
U.S. officials can scream all they want about Russian “war crimes” (I don’t know the facts and take no position on whether war crimes were committed or not). I think that Putin is a bad guy and that the Russian invasion was a wicked enterprise. But Putin isn’t going anywhere, Russia isn’t collapsing, and the Russian Army is demolishing Ukraine.
What, then, does the Biden Administration do next? Russia outguns us in nuclear weapons (and can deliver them from submarines firing hypersonic cruise missiles underwater). We don’t want a nuclear confrontation with Russia.
That’s why I signed this statement calling for de-escalation of the conflict sponsored by Compact Magazine, founded by my friends Sohrab Ahmari and Matthew Schmidtz. Biden, Blinken, Nuland et. al. have led us into a dead-end crisis that threatens to have a horrifying outcome—and maybe even a nuclear fireball. If you think I’m exaggerating, read this Asia Times analysis by editor-in-chief Uwe Parpart and myself. There’s still time to back out of the cul-de-sac. But not a lot.
Late-breaking news: The Wall Street Journal reports:
Mr. Scholz made one last push for a settlement between Moscow and Kyiv. He told Mr. Zelensky in Munich on Feb. 19 that Ukraine should renounce its NATO aspirations and declare neutrality as part of a wider European security deal between the West and Russia. The pact would be signed by Mr. Putin and Mr. Biden, who would jointly guarantee Ukraine’s security.
Mr. Zelensky said Mr. Putin couldn’t be trusted to uphold such an agreement and that most Ukrainians wanted to join NATO. His answer left German officials worried that the chances of peace were fading. Aides to Mr. Scholz believed Mr. Putin would maintain his military pressure on Ukraine’s borders to strangle its economy and then eventually move to occupy the country.
U.S. and European leaders held a video call. “I think the last person who could still do something is you, Joe. Are you ready to meet Putin?” Mr. Macron said to Mr. Biden. The U.S. president agreed and asked Mr. Macron to pass the message to Mr. Putin.
Mr. Macron spent the night of Feb. 20 alternately on the phone with Mr. Putin and Mr. Biden.
The Frenchman was still talking with Mr. Putin at 3 a.m. Moscow time, negotiating the wording of a press release announcing the plan for a U.S.-Russian summit.
But the next day, Mr. Putin called Mr. Macron back. The summit was off.
Mr. Putin said he had decided to recognize the independence of separatist enclaves in eastern Ukraine. He said fascists had seized power in Kyiv, while NATO hadn’t responded to his security concerns and was planning to deploy nuclear missiles in Ukraine.
@Raphael
Very nicely explained.
@Raphael
Excellent comment.
The War in Ukraine is a tragedy that should never have happened.
We can agree with most of what Mr. Goldman says, up to the point to where he let’s loose on Mr. Putin, calling him a “bad guy”, and the invasion “wicked”. To be sure the invasion was unfortunate, but we really need to stop with the hyperbole. It only obscures the truth.
NATO and Ukraine most certainly provoked Russia, in a game of strategic brinksmanship. Unfortunately, they over-played their hand and ended up with a country that is smashed, and a suffering and dispersed populace. [Does NATO really even care?] It isn’t as if Putin didn’t give ample warning that he would invade if NATO and Ukraine didn’t change their attitude. They didn’t, so it is they who are responsible for the conflict. Having NATO and a Nazi-influenced regime on their border was indeed an existential threat to Russia. Putin finally had to say, “enough”. What else could he do? Other countries do this, especially the US, so why should we be surprised or incensed when another country, like Russia, does it? See:
https://military-history.fandom.com/wiki/List_of_wars_involving_the_United_States
All the stuff we hear about Mr. Putin’s mental state, being ill-informed by his advisers, close to being over-thrown, and now being a war criminal, is all propaganda. In fact, the accusations against Putin are, at times, strangely reminiscent of smears made against former President Trump. So what is the truth about Putin? He is sane, reasonable (unless pushed too far), practical, calculating, and firmly in control. In war, I think Putin is tough, resolute, and possibly even merciless. Is he a war criminal? In the formal sense of the word, I think not, at least no more so than G.W. Bush and many others. It all depends on whose narrative you subscribe to.
If the conflict is to end, then serious negotiations will have to happen. (Too bad someone didn’t think of that a couple of months ago.) As this article implies, however, NATO may be content to let the war fester. Ukraine and its unfortunate people are merely pawns. Come to think of it, if there are any war criminals in this whole affair, it may be NATO, who cynically tried to use Ukraine to expand their reach. By provoking a war, NATO also hoped to cause regime change in Russia.
In the meantime, Russia smashes Ukrainian infrastructure, while the Ukrainian army declares victory. [It brings to mind a comment I heard after one of the Israeli/Lebanese wars. Israel had smashed just about anything of value, but as they withdrew, the opposition proudly declared “victory”, to which someone commented, “How many more victories like this can they endure?” This Russo/Ukrainian war is likely to be the same.
Whether or not a ceasefire or treaty is negotiated to end this conflict, Russia will almost certainly retain the Donbas and (now) the Crimean corridor. This is likely more than they would have gotten had negotiations taken place before the war.
We see, therefore, that it would have been vastly better if there had been serious negotiations before things reached this point. For now, Russia will gradually withdraw to areas that they intend to retain, and leave what’s left to the “victorious” Ukrainians. The only one who can actually bring a permanent end to this conflict, now, is Mr. Zelenskyy, but only if he cuts his NATO puppet strings.