T. Belman. I have known for some time that there is a troop build up in Jordan. Most of it is public knowledge. It is less clear why the US is there or what they will do in the event the King falls.
JaFaJ Intelligence Solutions August 10, 2021
Introduction
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1-On the 21st of March 2021, the Official Gazette of the Jordanian Hashemite Kingdom published the details of a military cooperation agreement between Jordan and the US. The agreement details extensive powers granted by Jordan to the US troops. Among those powers mentioned is freedom of operations within Jordan itself as well as immunity to all forms of responsibilities that may result from any military procedures.
2- In Jordan, it is well known that when a resolution, law or agreement is published in the Official Gazette, it is considered “A final, permanent act”, making it very hard to change or alter. The publishing of this agreement in the Jordanian Official Gazette, cements in stone the principals and language contained in the agreement, making it close to irrevocable.
It Makes the King Appear “Useless”
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3-The reaction of the Jordanian public was colder than expected, making it safe to say that Jordanians do not hold any particular hatred towards America or Americans. Nonetheless, the Hashemite regime’s announcement has promoted a variety of reactions. In the dominant camp, you have a majority of Jordanian who believe that “The king is useless” and “Has no powers anymore”, while the non-dominant camp is very indifferent to the entire affair.
4-A former senior Jordanian intelligence officer with ties to the king and his late father provided JaFaJ with the following opinion: “The king has always blown our minds with the claim that opposition figures want to rule Jordan on board an American tank. Now it appears that he is the one who wants to keep ruling Jordan from the tower of an American tank”.
5-The source added that, “Jordanians are not really concerned about having American presence, and many see their presence as a sign something is about to happen in the country”. The source continued, “Some say the Americans are here to protect the weak regime while others say that they are here because they know the regime is about to fall and they want to secure the country against unrest and perhaps aid the new regime”.
6-A former official from the Hashemite Royal Court [the king’s office], who has served with King Abdullah directly for years, said that “It was not the king’s wish to have the American troops stationed here, because it debunks his claims as America’s and Israel’s only option for Jordan”. He added that “The way the king has played things is by claiming that if he falls the country would fall and become another Syria, and now everyone agrees that this cannot happen because thousands of American troops are stationed in Jordan to protect the nation and her people, so if he goes, who cares? He’s not protecting us now, and posters and video of him in uniform are making Jordanians laugh today”. [COMMENT: The king is known to spread large billboard images of himself looking tough in military uniform across the country and almost at every official building in the country. END COMMENT]
7-The source continued by saying, “If it was up to him, he would not have the Americans here, it makes him replaceable because they [the Americans] can now secure their interests and keep Jordan stable. What has saved the king’s regime from collapsing during the Arab Spring, was not wisdom or popularity, he has neither in my opinion. What saved him is America’s former view that nobody else can secure Jordan, and now they are doing the job themselves, (so) what do they need him for?”
America Is Not Plotting A Regime Change for Jordan
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8-A Western intelligence source has confirmed to JaFaJ that “The US will not be seeking a regime change in Jordan, especially this administration”. The source added that, “It’s true the US no longer needs Abdullah for any strategic purposes. He added that they are now doing things that can only be considered “hands on” in Jordan. At the same time, the US will not seek a regime change, and cannot do much for him if he falls”. The source continued by saying that “I do not think the Biden administration will be doing anything special to save Abdullah if he counters another revolution”. He added, “Obama saved the king many times, but times have changed and I cannot see how Biden will be able to save the king this time around”.
9-The source explained as follows: “I have worked with the Jordanian government for a decade and met the king several time. I do not see him as particularly wise or capable, and understand why Western governments have been struggling to keep him “at the helm”, and why he is considered a problem child.” “We do not need to keep this up forever, nor do the Americans and if he falls, it’s not our problem anymore. We cannot keep confronting the will of the Jordanian people, if they don’t want him, they don’t want him, it’s up to them (Jordanians) now, not us. We won’t help them but we won’t stand in the way of positive Jordanian change like we did with America’s help in the past”.
Number of US Troops in Jordan to Reach 15,000
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10-A Western military source present in Jordan confirmed to JaFaJ that the “US aims to establish a long-term military presence in Jordan, with numbers expected to reach upwards of 10,000”. He also said that the current troop build-up is being done in a clandestine nature and will reach 15,000 or more. The source noted that “this figure will not be permanent, 4,000-5,000 of those will eventually be deployed to other places, as needed”. He added “10,000 is a huge number in peace standards, and clearly are enough to carry out combat operations across the region”.
It’s Not Only American Troops
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11-A Jordanian general with working ties to the US Central Command reported to JaFaJ that “It’s not only Americans here, but also the British and others”. The Britons have always kept ties with us [Jordan’s army] and they have never left this realm. To be honest, I estimate the current British presence to be around 500 soldiers with rapid plans to raise the number to 1,000”. [COMMENT: These figures do not include the Jordanian Armed Forces, whose presence exceeds 75,000 and is under deep-rooted influence of Western powers. END COMMENT]
12-JaFaJ sources have confirmed that the build-up consists of ground troops and soldiers, as well as support teams and equipment ranging from fighter jets and pilots, to tanks, ammunition and military assistance personnel, like medics.
13-A Jordanian military intelligence source confirmed to JaFaJ that “Troops from Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates are also joining the party”. The source confirmed that the Saudis have already sent military intelligence officers and some special forces soldiers, while the Emiratis will be sending those too no later than the end of August”. Both are also sending support equipment. He added that “The Egyptians are already here, the Egyptian Special Forces are very capable and well-trained at combating terrorists, and they have their interest in being here, they will be mainly stationed in the north by the borders with Syria”.
Why Is Biden Relocating US Troops to Jordan?
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16-JaFaJ intelligence sources have confirmed that the withdrawal of US troops from long-term operations like Afghanistan or bases in Qatar, is “Not just an application of Biden’s policy of disengagement in the Persian Gulf”. Rather it is the “Repositioning of troops for different tasks, including re-stablishing US might and capability of action in Syria, while threatening Iran indirectly”.
17-The source added that, “The Biden administration is not exactly content with the status quo in Syria. Trump wanted quiet in Syria and knew only Assad could bring that, and stopped our Arab allies from financing the opposition and allowing Assad to stabilize Syria. Biden, wants to overturn everything Trump accomplished in Syria, and does not like this situation. He wants Assad gone, or at least punished. President Biden also does not like Putin’s presence and Russia’s might in Syria, as well as Iran’s growing influence”.
18-An Egyptian military source confirmed to JaFaJ that “Biden wants to restablish America’s power in Syria and return Syria to the pre-Trump era”. He added “this will be very difficult to achieve because the Russians are there and are not planning to ever leave, the Iranians have their fingers in the pie and are gobbling up territory, and that Biden is expanding his military base in Jordan, where the confrontation with the rivals and proxies will most likely happen”.
19-Asked why Egyptian Special Forces are already in Jordan with plans to be positioned in the North, he responded, “We have interests in the region and Egypt has a large military presence in the region to protect its interests. We are the Arabs’s largest military and we see interest in being a part of any future arrangement Biden might create”. The source added that “we are not sending throngs of troops there. We are sending our cream of the crop, and they will be training other troops and be conducting special operations against terrorists who attack Jordan”.
20-A retired Israeli intelligence officer confirmed to JaFaJ that “Biden is also concerned about China and their presence in the Middle East. China is determined to rebuild and expand the Silk Road in an effort to establish its dominance over trade in Europe and eventually the world. Historically, that Silk Road passes through our region and China recently signed a military agreement with Iran which secures its interest in all the Arab countries Iran controls, including Syria, Iraq and to an extent Jordan and Gaza. Therefore, the US is concerned about China’s role in the region, expansion of their military presence and realizes that it may use its military might to stop its fast expansion in our region”.
Biden Wants to Secure America’s Future Sway on Jordan
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21-A Jordanian politician who has served as a government Minister and advisor to the king, as well as an ambassador over the past few decades, has confirmed to JaFaJ that he believed the “only reason the Americans are building up troops in such numbers is that they know that the king is finished”. He added “The US knows that Abdullah is hated by almost everyone in Jordan and that he is not even mentally fit to actually rule the country”. He clearly believes that “the US also knows the king treats the people very badly and Jordanians are angry because the economy is bankrupt, her lines of credit have run out and the country is heading down the road to economic disaster, making it another Syria unless the Americans have the guts to act”.
22-The source told JaFaj that “the Americans might just sit there and make sure that they can actually manage the disaster once it hits which is exactly how Americans like to do things. Just look at their methods in Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan and other theatres of operation”. He added “The only ones who could save Jordan are the Israelis, because it is not in their interests to see Jordan collapse and they know Jordan will collapse soon if the crazy king remains in power any longer and continues down the road he is walking.”
23-Asked why he does not trust the Biden administration’s position on Jordan, he said, “it seems to me that they are going to allow the country to slip under the king’s lunacy, corruption and mismanagement. They won’t do anything right now, instead they are going to sit and watch the dirt hit the fan. In the long run they will offer some type of assistance when it’s too late, and I am happy that the Israelis are already watching the situation, and won’t allow Jordan to collapse, even though they know that the king is in bed with Iran and up to no good.”
24-A senior Jordanian intelligence officer reported to JaFaJ that the major reason the Americans are building up troops in Jordan is “that they know the king is in his final stage of power, and while this doesn’t mean he’s going to fall soon, they know his mental health is failing and he is deteriorating physically”.
25-“The Americans also know that the king’s son [Crown Prince Hussein], is not king material, that the state’s treasury is bankrupt and that the regime is collapsing under its own weight and greed. “We have reported this to the Americans, Britons, Saudis, Israelis and others. The report contains several warnings that the regime will collapse, but doesn’t say when”, and that is why the Americans are flooding the country with troops today – they want to secure Jordan’s future after the king is gone which will allow them to have a say in Jordan’s future and interim government.”
26-“Without the American troops stationed in Jordan, it’s clear that we could have the Syrians, Iranians and all forms of terrorist infiltrating Jordanian borders. These terrorists could be coming from anywhere including Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as Al-Qaida and ISIS. With the US here, we know our borders are secure and the rest of the region knows they cannot mess with us”.
27- He added, American presence also signals the following to Jordanians: “Jordan will not turn into a mess after the regime is gone. America is there to secure this, not out of the kindness of their hearts, but because they know that if they leave, a power vacuum will form in Jordan, and that many other countries want to jump in and fill it, including China who would love to play a peace-maker role in the region.
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Perhaps the US is setting up camp in Jordan to provide support for US forces in Syria. Iraq is becoming less tenable as a base for US forces operating in Syria. It is also difficult to support Iraqi Kurdistan when you have to pass through Iraqi government controls.
Because of their beef with Turkey, Saudi Arabia has also expressed desire to help the Kurds in Syria, but they had no way to get there. It is also part of their plan to block Iranian land passage to the Mediterranean..
I would advise caution in predicting the King will fall and that is the major assumption here why the USA is moving troops into Jordan.
I don’t think the US is there to pick someone when the king falls. I think they are there to prevent infiltration by Iran or its proxies.
A major take away from this article is the belief that the King will fall. The fact that all these foreign troops have moved into Jordan also shows that the King is finished.
These troops will not permit the Muslim Brotherhood to take power. Guess who that leaves.
I would remind you, when Mudar created his coalition he got the leaders in the 13 refugee camps in Jordan to join it. It isn’t just a coalition in name only. A leading Beduoin clan also joined.
@Bear
@Edgar
@Adam
Several very interesting analyses. I have a couple of thoughts to add here.
When the king falls, may it be soon, the US military will not support him. And if they did, it would not end well for anyone. They may help bolster his ruined economy, but that will only serve to help the king’s bank accounts. As Adam notess, a certain leader may yet to be chosen, but it will likely not be long before a choice is needed. If they are smart they will choose Mudar, but if they are consistent, they will choose some other lost puppy to make their ruin most certain. Regardless, though, the king is well beyond saving. His moves against his people in piecemeal order and then, more recently, his moves against them enbank have certified his fall even now. Indeed, the discussion is not really about the opposition to the king as he has placed himself into the arms of his Shia masters to the horror of his entire nation, especially following his public worship at the Shia Shrines. So, I think at this point the opposition is actually all of Jordan. Iran’s encroachment into Jordan is a nonstarter which will leave Israel no option to further delay her moves against Iran. I don’t know if this is why the troops are here as Bear points out, but it seems very reasonably premised.
The idea of 15-17,000 men is far less than were stationed in Germany or in Iraq during the War or shorly afterwards, but to put it in context, at the end of last year, there were only 2,500 US troops in both Iraq and Afghanistan together and as Edgar noted there were only 2,000 troops in Syria, and that was leached down to about 500(unless this number was manufactured by Trumps generals). So 15,000 men are a lot to station needlessly in Jordan alone, I think. No doubt they are based at the new US base in Jordan that was planned in Jan. to have built by April-May – likely paid for in that military spending bill that Trump vetoed. It does make sense to have so many soldiers as a source of deterrence and to support US interests as Bear noted. However, it should be recalled that military adventurism is the very thing that Trump ran against and the very thing, or one of the many things, that likely motivated the organized union between the Dems and the Reps and China and other international interests to remove Trump so they could return to business as usual, ie their endless wars – do recall Victoria Nuland is back in power as well, another very devious member of the Obama crew’s returning gaggle. So, there are many troops, and many questions. The likely conclusion is as Bear noted, but the Neocons and Neolibs are each motivated to rekindle and return to their endless wars, and China would be greatly relieved to see it so. So, everyone in the region would be wise to watch their backs and their neighbors backs, ya know, just in case, as Obama never could be trusted to do anything to limit Iran or to help the Sunni’s or Israel.
I have no idea who this “JaFaJ Intelligence Solutions “ is. I notice that all of the anonymous sources that he quotes all seem to express themselves in the same speech patterns and mannerisms as the as the anonymous author. I don’t find this credible, especially not when he is quoting Arabs, whose speech patterns when speaking English are quite different from that of native speakers. I don’t think this is a reliable or well-informed source.
The Biden administration is dominated by appeasers and “anti-imperialists” who are absolutely opposed to projecting American miltary power abroad. Their hand-over of Afghanistan to the Taliban, and thereby to Islamic State and al-Quida as well, is evidence of this. If there has been a troop increase in Jordan it is only because they need some place to temporarily put the troops they are withdrawing from Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, etc. Biden (meaning Harris) will never commit American troops to a combat mission in Jordan.
I believe that, while there is indeed widspread opposition to Abdullah in Jordan and has been ever since King Hussein, unexpectedly and under pressure from his wife, suddenly made Abdullah his heir a few days before he died in 1998. However, unlike some, I believe the Jordanian people(s) are divided as to who or what they want to replace Abdullah. They have not coalesced around a single organization or a single leader, which is necessary for a revolution to succeed. I suspect that many Jordanians tolerate Abdullah on the “devil you know” theory. Many, I suspect, fear that the Brotherhood, even more extreme Islamists, or Iran would take over if Abdullah falls. Western leaders and Israel fear this too. This has always been the trump card (no pun intended) that Abdullah has in his hand.
@Bear
15,000 troops-as such- are not going to make the difference between decisively winning or losing. It all depends on what kind of troops they are and what equipment they operate. And this we don’t know. They are not needed to “beef up” the King’s military, but for other, independent purposes. At least that’s my guess.
Only a year or two ago, the presence of less than 2000 US troops inhibited military actions in northern Syria. and kept the area quiet.
A good example of “it’s the amount of bite in the dog”.
And Gantz says ” a lot more than his prayers”. He is not to be believed anyway. He scatters pronouncements around like confetti.
US is putting itself in position to protect its interests. Israel likely will be taking action against Iran nuclear facilities in the near future. This is not a secret as the top Israeli brass keeping telling us this including Gantz.
Iranians could hit out at US or gulf countries as a reaction. US in Jordan puts in a position to defend itself and also counter attack against Iran and its facilities.
USA has for months now been redeploying troops from elsewhere in the middle east.
US Biden administration views King as an ally.
A lot of talk, a lot of surmises, all food for political commentators to earn their living from, but the simple answer to TEDs highlight, can be, that they are ther to make sure that iranian influence does not take over the country and to keep the king (even as a figurehead) in power.
There HAS to be a figurehead in a “kingdom” and that is nearly always the king, popular or not. With 15-17000 US troops there , the goodies will begin to get arouns and percolate throughout the whole country as always happens wherever US troops are.