Is it possible that Kushner’s recent visit was not only to resolve a local conflict or begin normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel, but to lay financial groundwork ahead of his family’s departure from the White House?
On Friday, just two days after Jared Kushner, President Donald Trump’s son-in-law, returned from his visit to the Gulf, the Kuwaiti foreign minister announced a breakthrough in the conflict between Qatar and the Arab Gulf states. Arab leaders were quick to welcome the important diplomatic progress, which could end the conflict that broke out three and a half years ago.
Egypt, which joined the sanctions imposed on Qatar by Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates in 2017, expressed satisfaction. So did Jordan and Kuwait, who helped reach the reconciliation. Even Iran welcomed the progress. If these secret negotiations lead to an agreement, Trump can chalk up another diplomatic achievement that may perhaps bring Qatar into the circle of Arab countries normalizing ties with Israel.
But this optimistic new breeze should be accompanied by a warning. Not only has an agreement ending the conflict not been signed, Qatar has made it clear that it will not agree to a bilateral solution, that is, involving only itself and Saudi Arabia.
Qatar demands that an agreement include all of the countries that boycotted it, an agreement that would allow it to continue to pursue an independent foreign policy and would not compromise its sovereignty. Qatar has also made clear that normalization with Israel is not on the table.
It’s unclear what Saudi Arabia actually agreed to, from the information published so far. It’s also unclear whether the UAE, which opposes reconciliation, will sign an agreement, as well as Egypt’s position, given Cairo’s bitter grudge against Qatar for its support of the Muslim Brotherhood. Before sanctions were imposed on Qatar, its adversaries presented a list of 13 demands that Qatar had to meet to avoid sanctions.
These included restricting its ties with Iran to commercial only, removing the Turkish military base from its territory, closing down the Al Jazeera TV network and other media outlets it finances, seizing its support for terror groups and refraining from interference in countries in the region.
Contrary to the Gulf states and Egypt’s expectations, Qatar rejected all the conditions instead of giving in to the pressure caused by sanctions, showing an impressive ability to establish local production, infrastructure, and providing its people with almost an unlimited supply of their basic needs.
It continued selling its oil and gas and maintained its status as an essential ally of the United States and home to the largest American base in the Middle East, while planning to host the World Cup finals in 2022.
The conflict between the Gulf states, and in particular Saudi Arabia, has entangled Trump in a complex relationship in which he had to maintain good relations with both countries without favoring either one. For example, he could not intervene directly in the Libyan conflict, where Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the UAE allied themselves with the separatist leader, Khalifa Haftar, against Qatar and Turkey, who support the recognized government.
One of the reasons why former U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson lost his job, was because he tried to dissuade Saudi Arabia and the UAE from attacking Qatar, according to The Intercept. Tillerson allegedly didn’t know that these two countries were about to impose a blockade on Qatar, while Jared Kushner knew about it three months before it happened.
Trump praised the blockade and accused Qatar of funding terror groups “at a very high level,” while Tillerson was dubious about Qatar’s involvement in financing terrorism. Pentagon took a similar stand, praising Qatar for its important contribution to the war on terror.
Kushner has close ties with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, with whom he has nighttime conversations and chats on WhatsApp. But at the same time he owes Qatar for apparently unwittingly helping the Kushner family’s investment firm two years ago in making a payment on the mortgage for the property at 666 Fifth Avenue in New York, when it signed a lease with Brookfield Asset Management, of which Qatar owns about 9 percent.
Is it possible that Kushner’s recent visit to the Gulf states was not only for the purpose of resolving a local conflict or normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel, but to lay his and the Trump family’s financial groundwork ahead of his departure from the White House?
Many American pundits believe that Trump and his family want to take advantage of his diplomatic connections with the Gulf states to rake in real estate investments worth hundreds of millions of dollars. Maintaining business ties with an American president, who pledges not to depart from the political arena, is an obvious move. That is what Saudi Arabia did with George Bush senior, and raked in the profits with Bush junior.
The final weeks that Trump remains in power are not expected to produce any great diplomatic upheavals. Saudi Arabia has decided to delay normalization with Israel and wait until President-elect Joe Biden enters the White House, to try to clear bin Salman’s name in exchange for normalization with Israel. In the same way, it could also delay negotiations with Qatar for a few weeks or more, without damaging itself.
But when Biden declares that he intends to examine Saudi Arabia’s human rights record, and return to the nuclear agreement with Iran, Saudi Arabia needs to tighten the ranks, at least among the Gulf states to present a solid wall against the new American policy.
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