The Emerging Sino-Russian Alliance

How the ‘great powers’ are reconfiguring their partnerships for a new era. Plus, why it matters that al-Qaeda’s media chief was killed in Taliban country.

By Thomas Joscelyn, Senior Fellow and Senior Editor of FDD’s Long War Journal

During a video conference last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin said something significant. When asked if Russia would enter into a formal military alliance with China, Putin responded: “We don’t need it, but, theoretically, it’s quite possible to imagine it.”

That may not seem like a big deal, until you realize that the Russians have consistently avoided using the word “alliance” to describe their relationship with the Chinese. Instead, they’ve described their increasingly close ties as a “comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination.” It may be the case that “alliance” implies certain military commitments that go beyond how the Kremlin and Beijing currently view their dealings. Or, they may want to leave some ambiguity, avoiding terms that crystallize the situation for policymakers around the globe.

Either way, there is little doubt that their “strategic partnership” has already led to an alliance, of sorts, between the Russian and Chinese militaries. Putin conceded as much during the conference call. “Without any doubt, our cooperation with China is bolstering the defense capability of China’s army,” Putin said, according to the Associated Press’s account of his remarks.

Indeed, as I noted in a previous edition of Vital Interests, the U.S. Department of Defense has found that the Sino-Russian partnership “entails a relatively high degree of military cooperation,” which “occurs in practical forms through exchanges of training, equipment, technology, high-level visits, and other coordination mechanisms.” The two countries have engaged in a number of joint exercises, with Russia supplying China various forms of weaponry and aircraft. Late last year, the Kremlin pledged “to assist China in developing their missile-attack early warning network,” while the two sides have agreed to cooperate as far afield as the Arctic.

Putin’s remarks came just two days after Secretary of Defense Mark Esper announced two new major initiatives to combat the Russian-Chinese axis. Speaking at an event held by the Atlantic Council, Esper said DoD’s “Guidance for Development of Alliances and Partnerships” (or GDAP) and “Defense Trade Modernization” programs were launched with a new era of “great power competition” in mind. America’s rival “great powers” being, of course, Russia and China.

“Today, our global constellation of allies and partners remain an enduring strength that our competitors and adversaries simply cannot match,” Esper said. “In fact, China and Russia probably have fewer than ten allies combined.”

Still, Esper warned, America’s “advantage is not preordained, nor can we take our longstanding network of relationships for granted.” He said that China and Russia “are rapidly modernizing their armed forces, and using their growing strength to ignore international law, violate the sovereignty of smaller states, and shift the balance of power in their favor.” Esper cited China’s expansion in the South China Sea, as well as Russia’s “attempted annexation of Crimea” and “incursion into eastern Ukraine,” as examples of the revisionist powers’ aggressive behavior. Esper also highlighted other ways in which China and Russia are trying to bring others under their sway, including Beijing’s “One Belt-One Road Initiative.” The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is “expanding its financial ties across Asia, Europe, Africa, and the Americas, with the ulterior motive of gaining strategic influence, access to key resources, and military footholds around the world.”

The Pentagon’s GDAP initiative isn’t centered on any one partner nation. But Esper clearly had one country, more than others, in mind: India. Esper said that various efforts taken by the Trump administration are intended to “strengthen what may become one of the most consequential partnerships of the 21st century.” He cited various joint military exercises, as well as the “first ever U.S.-India defense cyber dialogue,” as evidence of expanding collaboration between the two countries.

One week after Esper’s remarks, both he and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo traveled to New Delhi, where they announced a new military pact with India. As part of the agreement, the U.S. will share sensitive satellite imaging—intelligence that is intended, in part, to help the Indian military ward off China’s aggressive behavior along their joint border. This is one component of the “Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership” between India and the U.S., which was heralded during President Trump’s visit to India in February.

So, just like Russia and China, the U.S. and India haven’t elevated their “partnership” to a formal “alliance.” But make no mistake about it. The U.S. is attempting to strengthen its alliances and partnerships to confront Russia and China’s scheming—and both sides are using similar language to describe their moves.

RUSSIA AND CHINA SPREAD ANTI-AMERICAN DISINFORMATION.

Information warfare has become increasingly important in this era of so-called “great power competition.” And recent weeks have provided us with another example of disinformation. You’ll recall that in the early weeks of the global COVID-19 pandemic, Zhao Lijian, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson, spread the claim that the virus may have been spread by the U.S. military. Well, Zhao was at it again in recent days.

Last week, Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy chairman of the Russia’s security council, resurrected the claim that American bio-labs are engaged in suspicious behavior. “The United States not only builds bio-labs in these countries, but also tries to do so in other places across the world,” Medvedev said, referring to facilities in various post-Soviet republics. “However, its research lacks transparency and runs counter to the rules of the international community and international organizations.” Medvedev implied that Americans were working on bioweapons at these facilities.

Chinese state-run media sites quickly amplified Medvedev’s allegations. As did Zhao. During a press briefing on Oct. 21, Zhao claimed that some of these labs “are based” in locations that “have seen large-scale outbreaks of measles and other dangerous infectious diseases”—implying that the Americans had spread them either on purpose or by accident. Zhao insinuated that the U.S. is covering up its nefarious schemes and called upon America to “clarify its biological militarization activities overseas.”

Of course, these claims come at a time when many are questioning the CCP’s own role in allowing COVID-19 to spread. But these types of smear campaigns aren’t new. The Kremlin, in particular, has a long history of trafficking in such claims. During the Cold War, for example, the Soviets aggressively spread the lie that AIDS was engineered at Fort Detrick, Maryland. Today, China and Russia work to amplify such disinformation, showing that their “comprehensive strategic partnership” doesn’t just cover military affairs.

AL-QAEDA’S MILITARY CHIEF WAS KILLED IN TALIBAN COUNTRY.

I’d like to wrap up this week’s newsletter by turning away from the “great power competition.” Earlier this month, Afghan security forces killed al-Qaeda’s media chief, Husam Abd-al-Ra’uf, during a raid in Ghazni province. Abd-al-Ra’uf was a veteran Egyptian jihadist whose career stretched back more than three decades. He was especially close to al-Qaeda’s global emir, Ayman al-Zawahiri. It’s remarkable to think that an al-Qaeda leader who joined the jihad in the 1980s was finally killed in Afghanistan more than 19 years into the war. While it is good that Abd-al-Ra’uf has been neutralized, his death isn’t really that much of a success story, if you think about.

I’ve tracked Abd-al-Ra’uf’s media output for years. He was the editor-in-chief of al-Qaeda’s Vanguards of Khorasan magazine, which was launched in 2005. In that publication, Abd-al-Ra’uf praised the 9/11 hijackings and the 7/7 bombings in London, while justifying mass casualty attacks on civilians. He appeared in al-Qaeda videos and wrote numerous other articles on behalf of the group as well. Eventually, he was chosen to lead As Sahab, the main propaganda arm that has produced messages from Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri. There’s much I could say about his career, as he was one of the most senior al-Qaeda leaders on the planet. But I’ll boil it down to two key points.

First, Abd-al-Ra’uf was killed in a Taliban-controlled village. As readers know, I’ve been critical of the State Department’s Feb. 29 withdrawal deal with the Taliban. In my view, that deal whitewashes the Taliban and endorses its supposed counterterrorism assurances. The language of the deal released to the public is ambiguous in several key respects and doesn’t include any verification or enforcement mechanisms. That’s a big problem given that the Taliban has lied about its relationship with al-Qaeda since the 1990s. Nevertheless, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told the American people that the Taliban had promised to betray its long-standing allies in al-Qaeda and would even help the U.S. “destroy” al-Qaeda after all these years.

It’s been eight months since that deal was signed. There is no evidence of a betrayal. The Taliban hasn’t killed any senior or even junior-level al-Qaeda operatives. The Afghan government, which was locked out of the State Department’s bilateral negotiations with the Taliban leading up to the Feb. 29 accord, has continued to take the fight to al-Qaeda. As far as I can tell, the State Department hasn’t even complained about the Taliban’s obvious, continuing alliance with al-Qaeda—at least not in public.

It is not surprising that Abd-al-Ra’uf was hunted down in Taliban country. A team of experts working for the United Nations Security Council reported earlier this year that Abd-al-Ra’uf was among the senior al-Qaeda figures who attended a series of meetings with the Taliban to discuss the group’s dealings with the State Department. According to that same UN monitoring team, the Taliban reassured al-Qaeda that there would be no real break between the two, regardless of how the Feb. 29 deal in Doha reads.

The Taliban certainly knew Abd-al-Ra’uf well. In 2005 and 2006, Abd-al-Ra’uf penned a study purporting to show that America’s defeat in Afghanistan was only a matter of time. He praised the Taliban’s resilience and cohesion in that same study, which was serialized in Al-Sumud, the Taliban’s flagship monthly publication.

Second, readers of Vital Interests will recall that I previously critiqued an op-ed published by Christopher Miller, the head of the National Counterterrorism Center, in the Washington Post on Sept. 10. I argued that Miller was clearly wrong to claim that Ayman al-Zawahiri was al-Qaeda’s “sole remaining ideological leader.” It was easy to point to other veteran leaders who are still in the game, including “Hossam Raouf.” That is an alternative spelling for Husam Abd-al-Ra’uf.

Well, NCTC’s Miller quickly confirmed that the Afghans had killed Abd-al-Ra’uf. Miller trumpeted his demise as a “a major setback” for the organization. Careful readers will spot the contradiction. Just last month, Miller implied that al-Qaeda figures such as Abd-al-Ra’uf were either unimportant or didn’t even exist. Only Zawahiri merited a namecheck in the pages of the Washington Post. Several weeks later, Miller heralded the death of another al-Qaeda leader—not Zawahiri—as one of the “strategic losses” suffered by the group. Simply put, he can’t have it both ways.

Abd-al-Ra’uf’s demise is undoubtedly significant. But there are plenty of al-Qaeda members and leaders left to take his place, which is why I wrote above that it isn’t that much of a success story. He had more than three decades to train and indoctrinate his subordinates. This was an elderly jihadist at the end of his career, not the beginning.

More importantly, the Taliban, al-Qaeda’s close ally, is possibly on the verge of retaking much of Afghanistan. That would be “strategic” for al-Qaeda—a strategic victory.

Thomas Joscelyn is a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and the Senior Editor for FDD’s Long War Journal. Follow Tom on Twitter @thomasjoscelyn.

October 31, 2020 | 37 Comments »

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37 Comments / 37 Comments

  1. @ Sebastien Zorn:

    When you say “unaccompanied” I presume unaccompanied by the cellist…….?? Do you know, I nver bothered to watch anything like Monty Python, or Seinfield (after less than 10 mins, more than enough for me)..!! I’ve always abhorred obviously contrived humour, even Jack Benny became very tiresome. I can recall only one item I liked of his, which was when he was held up “your money or your life”..”.wait a minute….I’m thinking”…

    I liked Myron Cohen and Jackie Mason. And of course the one and only Julian Rose with his “Levinsky at the Vedding”……

  2. @ Edgar G.:
    “Ladies and Gentlemen, I shall now play the Bach Suite for Unaccompanied Cello, No. 1 in G Major, BWV 1007 with Sesame Sauce.”

    Can’t find it googling, but I remember a Monty Python bit on one of their records, I suppose from the show that went something like, “And now the sound of Pablo Casals playing Bach on the cello while falling off a skyscraper in to a pot of boiling oil.”

  3. Before all this, a cellist I know told me she was going on tour in China, so I asked her to bring me back take out.

  4. @ Michael S:
    “STOP IT — NOW”?!?! That’s a dirty trick on your part to accuse me of something that I wasn’t even thinking of doing.
    You yourself disclosed so much information here about your family in China that no one needs to fish for anything.
    As far as what you called China – just reread your own post and find anything less than horrible in it about that country.
    I just felt bad about them staying there after what you wrote.

  5. @ Reader:
    Reader, I have not described any country as evil incarnate, and you are entirely confused. Why are you trying to fish personal information about me and my family?

    STOP IT — NOW

  6. @ Michael S:
    I was asking about your family in China which (China) you described, basically, as evil incarnate.
    Can’t they move to the US which is, at least, more virtuous?
    I don’t see that freedom of worship is attacked all over the world, I think you are being overly dramatic.
    The civil liberties, freedom of speech, freedom of assembly, the right to privacy, etc. are certainly under attack all over the world.
    It seems that your body is not yours anymore but belongs to the powers-that-be to do with, manipulate, and inject with any substances any way they want.
    Maybe for Christianity it is not such a big deal:
    Ephesians 6:5
    “Slaves, obey your earthly masters with respect and fear and sincerity of heart, just as you would show to Christ.”

  7. @ Reader:
    Hi, Reader. You said,

    “Why is your family staying in that horrid country?”

    Are you a Jew, yet you ask this? My family are Christians. We do not have an Israel to flee to. Four hundred years ago, some of my ancestors fled to America, to be able to worship God as their conscience dictated. Now, this freedom is under attack ALL OVER THE WORLD — including in America.

    Our God and Protector is the King of the Universe. The safest place in all the world to be, is in obedience to Him.

  8. @ Sebastien Zorn:
    Hi, Sebastian. I’m sure you also know Solomon’s proverb:

    Prov.17
    [1] Better is a dry morsel, and quietness therewith, than an house full of sacrifices with strife.

    I would much prefer eating K rations, than suffering the current political & religious climate.

  9. @ Michael S:
    Thank you, that’s fascinating! I never heard of him before. I googled him and it’s quite a find. My favorite dog expression is one I got from Korean dramas about ancient Joseon, and it’s great for driving away people who annoy me when I’m eating, by asking what I’m eating or why I’m a vegetarian or opining on how unhealthy it is. I say, “It’s at time like this, I’m reminded of an ancient Korean (drama in and undertone) saying, “Even a dog is allowed to eat in peace.” ha ha.

  10. @ Sebastien Zorn:
    The nearest related Chinese expression translates as “Better to be a dog in times of tranquility than a human in times of chaos.” The expression originates from Volume 3 of the 1627 short story collection by Feng Menglong, Stories to Awaken the World.

  11. @ Sebastien Zorn:
    Sebastien, you said,

    “Though I’ve read that it’s apocryphal as nobody can find the origin of it and nobody says it in China, apparently. It’s apocalyptic, anyway,.

    I’m not sure what you were referencing by “it”, but that’s not terribly important. Let me just note that China has made itself a major villain in the eyes of Americans, and deservedly so; and its major offenses in people’s eyes are not their human rights abuses against the Uyghurs, nor their usurpation of the rights of the Hong Kongers, nor their military expansion in East Asia, nor their militarization, nor the jobs they have stolen from Americans using corrupt intermediaries such as the Bidens, nor their blatant piracy of US technology, nor their incessant spying and intelligence ops in the US; it is their giving us COVID and all its accompanying misery, and their launching a “Reverse Opium War” on us.

    While we have been careful in accusing China of biological warfare concerning the virus, they are patently behind the deadly fentanyl crisis besieging us:

    “In April 2019, at the behest of the Trump administration, China announced a ban on the production, sale, and export of fentanyl-class substances without authorization.

    “But analysts have pointed out that the new rules are hard to administer.

    “The enforcement challenge,” the Brookings report said, “is formidable since China’s pharmaceutical and chemical industries involve tens of thousands of firms and hundreds of thousands of facilities, and China lacks adequate inspection and monitoring capacity.” [NOT]

    The implication that criminal gangs can operate in the shadows in China “is highly debatable,” Chang noted. “For one thing, the Communist Party, through its cells, controls every business of any consequence.”

    https://freepressers.com/articles/fentanyl-china-killing-americans-with-impunity

    One thing that became obvious to me in my visit to China, and in communications with people there, is that NOTHING escapes the eyes of the authorities. The other thing that is obvious, is that government officials, from top to bottom, are in cahoots with China’s well-entrenched gangs — including those who run the fentanyl trade. The leadership of the CCP (Xi) is INTENTIONALLY flooding the US with this deadly, highly addictive drug.

  12. @ Sebastien Zorn:
    Hello Sebastien

    In 2014, my Chinese relative ran a prospering international business in China, employing 50 Chinese nationals in the home office alone. The next year, the government turned on entrepreneurs, and turned to helping corrupt cronies of the Vice President. My relative had to lay off all 50, and lost his home, his parent’s home and his sister’s home. He adapted, starting a new business, then it was ruined by new government regulations. Meanwhile, Hong Kong was illegally absorbed by the Communists in Beijing and has since lost the freedom and independence that had made it prosperous for over a century. It is quickly becoming an economic back water. Xi’s cronies have been parking their hundreds of millions overseas, while many Chinese families are fleeing the country. The country is on the way to ruin, while Xi continues to double down on his ruinous Communism.

    You talked elsewhere about “billionaires” in China. Chairman Xi is the President, CEO and sole stockholder in a corporation called the People’s Republic of China. There is no comparison between his wealth and anyone else’s in the country. Ditto for Putin in Russia. That is what a centrally owned and controlled dictatorship amounts to. In the US, the reverse is true, with a handful of multi-billionaires controlling most of what Americans see, hear and say; and not surprizing, the lies these super-wealthy American and globalist Czars feed the world are in line with the lies of the Russians and Chinese.

    Chairman Xi is following the playbook of Adolph Hitler. His continual threats against Taiwan, the South China Sea and India are as persistent as Hitler’s threats against Austria, Czechoslovakia and Poland — and Taiwan has the misfortune of being the modern twin of Poland, cut off geographically from its allies, while having to face down a vastly superior, hostile military on its border.

    China has been building up its military at a pace on a par with Hitler’s; and his territorial and political expansion is akin to the reoccupation of the Rhineland, the annexation of Sudetenland and the Anschluss in Austria. Putin, every whit the weaker Mussolini to Xi’s Hitler, has done so on a smaller scale in Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Transnistria, Crimea and the Donbass. Even so, Russia and China combined are not as great a threat to the US as our own traitorous, greedy citizens like Bezos, Zuckerberg et al, who are hard at work undermining our society from within; and some of the most corrupt, sleazy Deep State operatives, like Joe Biden, since the days of the Bourbon Dynasty.

    Meanwhile, who will oppose them? The Christians? Look at your own Jewish brethren, fawning on the likes of Biden and Xi, and you can see the direction US Christians have been heading. Many of our close friends and their families support the enemy. In the state where I live, the governor, attorney general, congressmen and many mayors are actively helping terrorists who are free to attack and kill ordinary citizens in parts of our state. This is NOT hyperbole.

    Meanwhile, you and I, and most of the pundits here, are not in a position to fight the new Mafioso. Donald Trump offers us and the world a glimmer of hope; but consider this: The NSA, CIA and other Deep State operatives, the people who used to cooperate to overthrow governments in places like Vietnam, Iran, Chile and Guatemala, have these past few years been focusing their efforts on the government of the United States of America. They are aided by the United Nations, the World Bank, the DAVOS men, the most powerful entities in the whole world.

    The only one we have on our side is the King of the Universe. While small convoys of humvees are heading into Democrat-run cities, to protect the leaders from their own radical “comerades”, our God has been dispatching myriads of chariots of fire to the earth. There is no question that we will win, but the battle is to those who stand in faith and endure to the end.

  13. @ Michael S:
    Though I’ve read that it’s apocryphal as nobody can find the origin of it and nobody says it in China, apparently. It’s apocalyptic, anyway,.

  14. @ Sebastien Zorn:
    “nonethless interesting, wouldn’t you say?”

    Yes, Sebastien; “interesting” — like the Chinese curse, “May you have an interesting life”, or like Germany or Austria in 1938, or like the Cuban Missile Crisis:
    1. An election tomorrow, complete with riots, egregious voting irregularities, biased judges, blatantly biased attornies general, etc. Interesting;
    2. a worldwide flu outbreak that has been thoroughly politicized to the point that people are losing their business and countries are imprisoning people in their own homes
    3. churches and synagogues burning, and people across Europe and the US being physically assaulted and killed; stores looted, etc.
    4. Major countries falling, one after the other, into dictatorships and centrally planned regimes — along with increasingly aggressive foreign policies
    5. Almost our entire information industry in the hands of a few phenomenally wealthy people, who manipulate people’s supposedly private conversations and searches — all for fun and profit
    6. powerful indivituals and groups attempting to eradicate our Bibles, along with our very history.
    7. Firestorms, etc.

    You may agree or disagree; but a general summing up of it all is that the world is far more dangerous, no matter where you live, than it was a year ago. That’s the sort of “interesting” I prefer to avoid.

  15. If the US keeps kicking both Russia and China and calling them the enemies of the US and the West, their alliance will grow stronger and stronger out of sheer necessity.
    It seems that the US is trying to set up a major conflict between China and India in order to do China in with someone else’s (Indian) hands weakening both sides and, probably, significantly cutting down the population of the two most heavily populated countries in the world while the US makes money hand over fist supplying weapons to all the sides of the conflict and keeping the moral high ground.
    It would be really DUMB of India to get into this deal.

  16. It is, however, further compounded by sometimes, conflicting cultural prejudices and affinities. Turkey supports Azerbaijan because they are both Turkic cultures. Iran is ambivalent towards Azerbaijan because Many Iranians, including Khameini, are, in fact, Azeris, but regard Iranians as the TRUE Azeris. And, of course, Iran and Turkey have are beset with a monomania about destroying Israel.

  17. It is, however, further compounded by sometimes, conflicting cultural prejudices and affinities. Turkey supports Azerbaijan because they are both Turkic cultures. Iran is ambivalent towards Azerbaijan because Many Iranians, including the Khameini, are, in fact, Azeris, but regard Iranians as the TRUE Azeris. And, of course, Iran and Turkey have are beset with a monomania about destroying Israel.

  18. And the same goes for any direct relationships with China and Russia. There are areas of agreement and areas of conflict and no clear cut lines. This article from last year predicted a war between the two.

    “…Yet beyond the apparent bonhomie and geopolitical dalliance between Xi and Putin, the historic and atavistic tensions deeply rooted between the Slavic and Han civilizations represented by Russia and China are bound to emerge again, probably in violent form, in the next decade.

    In fact, signs already abound of Russian nervousness as China relentlessly pushes its Silk Road initiatives, coercive economic practices, and diplomatic blandishments deep into the entire former Soviet space in Central Asia. Although the Chinese have so far refrained from asserting strategic-security rights in the geopolitical arc along Russia’s southern periphery, it is only a matter of time before some hyper-nationalist general in Beijing does so. The Russians can be relied upon to react with unrestrained fury.

    But what will likely drive Russia to a defensive war with China before the next decade is out is the growing probability of Chinese territorial encroachment into Russia’s sparsely populated far eastern region bordering the Pacific. The Russian territories north of the Amur and east of the Ussuri Rivers in eastern-Central Asia, which currently demarcate the agreed boundaries between the two countries, are historically and insistently claimed by China. Chinese military maps even show these areas as Chinese territories.

    These territorial claims, combined with the sheer population disparities – over 130 million people live in three Chinese provinces bordering Russia’s Far East, where the population is estimated at less than 8 million – and the need to secure long-term access to living space and natural resources almost preordains that Beijing will sooner or later demand revisions to what it calls “unequal” border treaties with Czarist Russia dating back to the mid-19th century. And although the Russians are equally bound to resist, it is not inconceivable that China at some point will demand access or land-lease rights to parts of Russia’s Far East, or, failing that, that the Chinese army will simply march across the border into Vladivostok, Russia’s only warm water access to the Pacific, to stamp China’s historic claim and rights to the region.

    It is not clear at this juncture how Russia and China can step back from a conflict in the coming decade. But as China appears unlikely to relinquish its expansive territorial claims against its neighbors, including Russia, the onus for deterring China from seizing Russian territories will fall upon Putin or his successors in the 2020s…”
    https://besacenter.org/perspectives-papers/expect-war-russia-china/

    I see no way of predicting anything with reasonable certainty.

  19. It’s a very strange tangle of international relationships. China and Russia are sometimes friendly to Israel and sometimes hostile, especially on the diplomatic level. Both are hostile to the US. Muslim Turkic Azerbaijan and Christian Armenia have friendly relations with Iran but Azerbaijan is an crucial ally of Israel and Armenia has had cold relations for the most part. This year, Armenia opened an embassy for the first time and then immediately closed it. Turkey is an enemy of Israel but an ally of Azerbaijan.

    The United States would lose the support it has among allies Poland and the Ukraine if it eased up on Russia over Crimea. Armenia’s relationship with Nagorno-Kabarakh is similar to Russia’s with Crimea except that in the last war, Armenia drove out the Azeri population of a region legally under IT”S control to make it majority Armenian as Nagorno-Kabarakh is but Nagorno, if it went to Armenia would cut Azerbaijan in two and make unviablle and Armenia’s only stable border for Trade is with Iran. It’s other borders are with breakaway provinces from Georgia, I believe, which are at war, and, moreover, Russia is allied with Crimea.

    Meanwhile Azeri and Armenian protesters in Israel and America are virtue-signaling about past genocides against each other and by the related Turks, which in turn was the dress rehearsal for the Holocaust which was committed with German complicity.

    It’s a completely tangled mess and everybody is worrying if this could somehow be a trigger for another regional or world war like WWI, except the alliances are all unclear.

    Maybe Trump and Kushner, thinking outside the box, can figure something out. But, states are following their interests as states, as states do and moralizing doesn’t really help.

  20. @ vivarto:
    You’re naive if you think Russia wants to be our friend. They may be weak and not much of a threat to us at this point, but Russia will always be an enemy. china needs to be destroyed altogether. Even the Soviets at the height of the cold war didn’t wage bio warfare against us. china is the biggest threat we’ve ever faced.

  21. This alliance is the result of America’s idiocy.
    Russia should urgently be made American ally against China.
    America should stop interfering in disputes between Ukraine and Russia.
    Let Russians have Eastern Ukraine, no problem at all with that.

  22. I don’t know what Putin thinks he will achieve by partnering with Loser China. He will certainly become their puppet, and ultimately lose India in the deal; and the Chinese will not help him one iota (unless he wants “Hong-Kong-style help against internal dissidents). Chairman Xi, meanwhile, seems hell-bent on returning to the days of Mao and the Cultural Revolution.

    As far as US foreign policy goes, Afghanistan has almost exactly followed the playbook of South Vietnam. In either case it was a matter of stalling for time, trying to minimize American bleeding, and ultimately cutting our losses. The USSR did likewise. Vietnam still hasn’t made up its mind, which way to go; and Afghanistan seems doomed to go back to the Islamist hell we pulled it out of. In both cases, the people have made their beds and will have to sleep on them. This isn’t something the US military can resolve.