By Brian C. Joondeph, AM THINKER
Election day is almost here. Some things will end, like incessant campaign commercials, much to the relief of voters on both sides of the aisle. Other things will continue, including protests and riots, as we are seeing in Philadelphia, and as Kamala Harris promised.
Despite more than five years of slings and arrows hurled at President Trump, to derail his campaign, transition, and administration, Trump has a spring in his step. Not just when he is dancing to YMCA song at the end of each rally, but in his entire demeanor.
He is cool, confident, and on top of his game, unlike his opponent Joe Biden, who is frequently bumbling and incoherent. Whether he forgets Mitt Romney’s name, thinks he is running for Senate, or calls his current opponent “George,” his campaign does not radiate confidence or assurance. Even Democrat operatives, media cranks or campaign consultants, are starting to panic.
Trump has the momentum, what I prefer to call “Trumpmentum,” a healthy dose of mojo in the final week of the campaign. Trump has choreographed October as carefully as the finale of a season of The Apprentice, complete with mystery, fun, and engagement of his supporters to a degree not seen in recent political memory.
Start with the polls, wrong four years ago and likely again wrong this year. Earlier this month, Biden had 16-point lead nationally in a CNN poll. Even Rasmussen, one of the most accurate 2016 pollsters, gave Biden a 12-point lead a few weeks ago. But now it’s Trumpmentum season, erasing a Biden lead and this week Rasmussen has Trump up by a point over Biden.
The Trafalgar Group, the most accurate pollster in 2016, predicts Trump’s reelection. Trafalgar uses shorter and simpler surveys and measures the “neighbor question” – who do you think your neighbor is voting for?
Gallup asks something similar, not who you want to win but instead who you think will win. Trump tops Biden 56 to 40 percent. Gallup also asked registered voters, “Are you better off today than you were four years ago?” 56 percent answered yes compared to only 32 percent saying no. Why jump off a winning horse? Trumpmentum.
Blacks comprise only 13 percent of the U.S. population and vote almost exclusively for Democrat presidential candidates. Past Republican candidates have captured no more than 10 percent of that voting bloc, Trump winning only eight percent in 2016.
Rasmussen shows Trump approval among blacks at 25 percent and when asked who they would vote for, 30 percent of blacks answered Trump. If Trump as a Republican captures half of that, it would be unprecedented in a presidential election, a historic realignment. Trumpmentum.
Trump Rally – YouTube screen grab // Biden Rally – YouTube screen grab
Which campaign has energy and enthusiasm, and which is as exciting as a root canal? Trump rallies draw tens of thousands, many waiting in mile-long lines for a day or more in the hopes of getting into the rally. Biden in contrast draws only tens, a few dozen attendees, mostly journalists and Secret Service.
Look at these photos from Conservative Treehouse revealing how Ivanka Trump drew a larger audience than former President Barack “The One” Obama, who to his credit engaged a larger audience than candidate Joe Biden.
Those are the formal rallies. What about the spontaneous Trump events?
Parades and caravans in Democrat strongholds like Brooklyn, Beverly Hills, and New Jersey. Trumpmentum.
October is a month of surprises, particularly ahead of a presidential election. The media gave Trump a five-year colonoscopy with a bunch of non-stories and duds. The worst we will hear between now and election day is how many scoops of ice cream Trump receives when returns to the White House after a day of campaign rallies.
Biden, on the other hand, is a daily news fest, despite censorship and willful denial by traditional and social media. Stories of decades-long family corruption, selling U.S. interests to Russia, Ukraine, China, and other less than friendly regimes, along with sordid photos and videos of Biden family members, fodder for blackmail of the potential future president of the United States. These crimes are coming to light, slowly but steadily. Hunter Biden, as the recent Tucker Carlson interview with Tony Bobulinski outlined, is the Biden family laundromat, laundering pay-to-play money from corrupt regimes to keep “the big guy” living a life way beyond his government salary means.
These revelations are bad enough that some early voters want to change their votes. Google searches for “can I change my vote” surged following revelations of sex tapes and grift from Hunter Biden’s laptop. Which way do you think these votes are being changed? Trumpmentum.
Just for fun, pretend there were no polls and we each had to form an opinion of the upcoming election based on what we observe – enthusiasm, rallies, messaging, and campaign confidence. If the weather gal says it will be warm and sunny and I see snow flurries outside my window, who will I believe? My own eyes or the opinions of the self-proclaimed smart set?
Lastly, Trump is a winner. He knows what he has been up against. Trump is an unstoppable force, knocking many into the ditch, from his primary opponents and Hillary Clinton in 2016, to Schiff, Nadler, and Pelosi. From Avenatti and Michael Cohen to the entirety of the mainstream media.
Betting against Trump is a losing bet, as the last five years demonstrated, especially when he is confident and, on a roll, as he is now. He has Trumpmentum and it’s best to stay out of his way.
Brian C. Joondeph, M.D., is a Denver-based physician and freelance writer for American Thinker, Rasmussen Reports, and other publications. Follow him on Facebook, LinkedIn, Twitter, Parler, and QuodVerum.
” Jerusalem Post US Elections
Donald Trump leads in Pennsylvania, other swing states – poll
The survey consisted of 1,076 voters, and showed Trump to have the support of 48.4% of those asked, in comparison to Biden’s 47.6%.
By JERUSALEM POST STAFF OCTOBER 31, 2020 14:45
US PRESIDENT Donald Trump pulls off his protective face mask as he poses atop the Truman Balcony of the White House on October 5 after returning from being hospitalized for coronavirus disease treatment.
(photo credit: REUTERS)
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US President Donald Trump seems to be leading in Pennsylvania over Democratic candidate Joe Biden, according to a new survey by Trafalgar Group, as reported by the Washington Times.
The survey consisted of 1,076 voters, and showed that Trump had the support of 48.4% of those asked in comparison to Biden’s 47.6%, once the “leaning” voters were included. The small difference of 0.8%, however, falls within the survey’s 2.9% margin of error.
Trafalgar claims that this disparity between itself and other polls published is the company’s way of discovering Trump supporters who refuse to disclose their choice due to believing they will receive a negative portrayal, according to the Times.
The firm also tries to keep questioning below two minutes in order to make sure that even impatient people will be willing to take the time and answer their questions, which come in a few methods: live callers, automated voice, texts, emails, and two proprietary cyber methods.
The polling company also puts Trump ahead of Biden in several other swing states, including Ohio and Arizona by four points, Florida and North Carolina by two points and Michigan by one point.
Trafalgar polls in 2016 predicted a victory for Trump in both Pennsylvania and Michigan, as well.”
@ Laura:
“How can people vote for a mentally incapacitated crook who is a puppet of the radical left? This should be a Trump landslide victory,”
You tell me, Laura. People very close to me have just escaped from a Communist country, while many of my friends seem to want to make the US Communist. For the few here who really care or want to listen, my answer is this:
1. God is truth.
2. The masses have rejected God.
3. The masses no longer know truth.
We live in what John Bunyan called “Vanity Fair”.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vanity_Fair_(novel)
Joondeph is correct on all counts — except his grammar, which annoys me.
“…who will I believe?”
Does he mean “Who will believe me?” or “Whom will I believe?” I suspect an anarchist plot to destroy the English language.
I’m pessimistic. How can people vote for a mentally incapacitated crook who is a puppet of the radical left? This should be a Trump landslide victory, yet Biden leads in the polls by a considerable amount. He leads big among the elderly who should know better.
“Biden Advisers Sound Red Alert Over Black, Latino Turnout
Senior Biden campaign officials are ‘becoming increasingly worried’ over low turnout among black and latino voters in key states such as Pennsylvania and Florida, according to Bloomberg, citing people familiar with the matter.
Despite record early-vote turnout around the country, there are warning signs for Biden. In Arizona, two-thirds of Latino registered voters have not yet cast a ballot. In Florida, half of Latino and Black registered voters have not yet voted but more than half of White voters have cast ballots, according to data from Catalist, a Democratic data firm. In Pennsylvania, nearly 75% of registered Black voters have not yet voted, the data shows. -Bloomberg”
From today’s ZeroHedge, quoting Bloomberg. Breitbart has a similar report.
From today’s ZeroHedge site.
“Election Prediction”
“The author’s election prediction.
Electoral Vote Prediction: 312-226
I predict President Trump will win re-election with 312 electoral votes. Here I’ll show how I came up with that prediction, and how you can bet on it (or against it). I’ll also show ho you can protect your portfolio against the risk of a disputed election.
Obvious In Hindsight
The winner of the 2020 Presidential election will seem obvious in hindsight. If former Vice President Joe Biden wins, that will be consistent with the polls.
The RealClearPolitics National Polling Average
However, pollster Robert Cahaly of the Trafalgar Group argues that many shy Trump voters are unwilling to tell pollsters they’re voting for Trump. The same phenomenon occurred in 2016; to get around it, the Trafalgar Group asked poll respondents who they thought their neighbors were voting for. The IBD/TIPP poll asks this question as well, and the most recent version of it is illustrative. That poll has Biden winning nationally 50%-to-45.3%. But when IBD/TIPP pollsters asked respondents who their neighbors were voting for, 45% said Trump versus 38% for Biden.
Another poll question casts doubt on the national poll average. The Gallup survey found that 56% of Americans say they’re better off than they were four years ago.
This is striking in a year when Americans have suffered from the COVID-19 pandemic and the lockdowns meant to fight it. As the graphic above shows, incumbents won reelection with smaller percentages of voters answering yes to that question.
Voter Enthusiasm
Voter enthusiasm is tougher to gauge with polls, but the contrast between Biden and Trump rallies is striking. Biden’s campaign events have been sparsely attended.
While Trump has drawn crowds of 10,000+. Trump’s rally in Martinsburg, PA (population: 2,000) reportedly had more than 11,000 attendees.
Predicting The Outcome
The Cook Political Report’s Demographic Swingometer lets you predict the election outcome based on the votes and turnout percentages for five different demographic groups. Its default looks like this.
Small changes in the parameters can lead to large changes in the outcome. For example, if you lower black and Hispanic turnout by 2% each due to the effects of vote by mail, and you raise Trump’s share of their respective votes to 12% and 35%, respectively, you get this:
I made a couple of additional assumptions to get my 312-226 electoral vote estimate, but the difference between Trump getting 306 electoral votes and 312 is immaterial to my election bet.
Betting On The Election
If you believe Trump will win the election, you can buy the “yes” contract for that, or the “no” contract for Biden on PredictIt. PredictIt pays out one dollar per share on winning contracts, before taking out its fees, so as of this writing, buying the “no” contract at 33 cents was a better deal.
You can get a higher payout if you predict the electoral vote accurately. The “GOP by 60-99″ contract below corresponds to my 312-226 prediction, since 312-226 = 86, and 86 is between 60 and 99. It would also pay off if Trump won 306 electoral votes.
Election Risk For Investors
The way to limit your risk on bets like the ones above is to only bet what you can afford to lose. But the election presents broader, political risk to investors. What if there’s no consensus on who won next Tuesday?
If you’re concerned that chaos might escalate after an unresolved election, below is a way you can limit your risk.
In that video, we use optimal puts on the Invesco QQQ ETF (QQQ) as a way to hedge market risk, for a tech-heavy investor. Investors who aren’t as tech-heavy can use a similar approach with other index ETFs such as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY).”
“Polling averages show Trump gaining on Biden in most swing states. Will it be enough?
William Cummings, USA TODAY Published 2:35 p.m. ET Oct. 30, 2020”