Saudi Royal Family Divides Over Potential Embrace of Israel

“Israel has to wait it out,” said Yoel Guzansky, a former director of Iran and Gulf desk on Israel’s national security council. “It’s more a matter of when and not if. When and at what price, and the price [demanded by the Saudis] is being negotiated with the White House, not with Israel.”Time is on Israel’s side. Saudi Arabia’s overwhelmingly young population feels less connected to the plight of the Palestinians than their parents and grandparents did, said David Rundell, a retired senior U.S. diplomat who worked in Saudi Arabia. Those “who grew up with two Arab-Israeli wars and the Palestinian cause beat into them since they were children are angry,” he said. “They feel the Emiratis have betrayed the Palestinians. Most Saudis under 30 don’t really care.”Saudi Arabia and Israel have maintained discreet but frequent informal contacts on security issues, mostly related to Iran, for around 30 years. In recent years, Saudi Arabia has had to walk a fine line to pursue its twin goals of maintaining its alliance with the U.S., especially in confronting Iran, and continuing its longstanding support for Palestinians. That sometimes has led Saudi officials to voice one position in private and another in public, or even to take divergent public positions.

King Salman, a son of the modern Saudi state’s founder, lived through Israeli conquests of Arab territory, which instilled in him a devotion to the Palestinian cause, according to Saudi analysts and U.S. officials. When serving as governor of the Saudi capital before ascending the throne, he often referred to himself as “Palestine’s ambassador in Riyadh,” according to the actual Palestinian ambassador, Bassem Al Agha.

In 1973, flush with petrodollars, Saudi Arabia imposed an oil embargo on the U.S., one of its closest allies, for supporting Israel in war against Egypt and Syria. It later forged a pan-Arab position that normal relations with Israel would come only with an independent Palestinian state.Until the U.A.E. and Bahrain broke ranks this summer, that remained the stance of all Arab states, although Egypt and Jordan had already signed peace treaties with Israel.

Regional countries that recognize Israel

(year of recognition)

Regional countries that don’t recognize

Israel

Regional countries “warming” to Israel

A senior Trump administration official said Prince Mohammed presented Saudi Arabia’s position about relations with Israel. In the meeting, the prince agreed to open Saudi airspace to flights to and from Israel and told Mr. Kushner that if Bahrain decides to normalize ties with Israel, “there was a clear pathway to do that,” the senior official said.

Bahrain’s leadership pushed ahead with joining the U.A.E. diplomatic deal. At the White House on Tuesday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the foreign ministers of the U.A.E. and Bahrain joined President Trump for a signing ceremony that the president called the foundation of a broader alignment against Iran. No Saudi representative attended.

Under the so-called Abraham Accords, the former adversaries will establish embassies in one another’s countries and begin to cooperate economically, politically and socially. The Emiratis also reached a separate understanding that the U.S. would look favorably upon its requests for advanced F-35 stealth fighters.

It won’t be easy for Saudi Arabia to erase one major obstacle to ties with Israel. Generations of Saudis have been conditioned to hate Jews. School textbooks called them swines and apes; mosque preachers have prayed for victory over the “invader and aggressor” Jews; and the news media has referred to Israel as “the Zionist enemy.”

Saudi Arabia’s Royal Family

Maintaining peace among the descendants of Abdulaziz ibn Saud has been critical for stability in the world’s top oil exporter

Prince Mohammed has pledged to root out religious extremism and promote a more tolerant vision of Islam that could accept other faiths, including Judaism. In 2018, he said he believes Israelis have a right to their own land—a break from the longstanding view of them as regional interlopers.

At the same time, the Saudi crown prince isn’t blind to the risks of rushing into a formal relationship with Israel, Saudi and Western political analysts said. It would expose the kingdom to criticism from regional adversaries for not only abandoning the Palestinians, but for allowing any arrangement that would see Israel maintain full control of Jerusalem and access to Al Aqsa Mosque, the third-holiest site in Islam.

Prince Mohammed is likely to push other states where Saudi Arabia enjoys influence, such as Sudan and Morocco, to normalize with Israel first, according to Mr. Rundell, the former U.S. diplomat who served in Saudi Arabia for 15 years. “If they do it before there’s a clear consensus among Arab states, they’ll make themselves a lightning rod” for criticism, he said.

Danny Danon, Israel’s ambassador to the United Nations from 2015 to 2020, said he had dozens of private conversations with Saudi and Emirati counterparts as well as visiting officials, largely to coordinate actions against Iran but also some social engagements. “In terms of having full recognition,” he said, “it will take more time.”

Although many anticipate Saudi Arabia will be the last Arab country to normalize ties with Israel, Prince Mohammed has a record of bucking expectations. Two advisers close to the crown prince said he wants to reach a deal with Israel but knows it is nearly impossible as long as the king is alive.

Meanwhile, he has directed local media to publish glowing coverage of the U.A.E. and Bahrain deals. A message to Saudi newspaper editors, seen by The Wall Street Journal, instructed them to defend the moves as “historical and honorable.”

Says a Saudi adviser familiar with the strategy: “He is testing the waters and preparing Saudis for what is coming next once he becomes king.”

—Dov Lieber in Tel Aviv and Dion Nissenbaum in Washington contributed to this article.

Write to Stephen Kalin at stephen.kalin@wsj.com, Summer Said at summer.said@wsj.com and Felicia Schwartz at Felicia.Schwartz@wsj.com