‘I don’t want to go into details, but there won’t be 4th vote,’ Yisrael Beytenu chief says; asked if he means unity coalition, he answers: ‘Not unity — all Zionist parties’
TOI
Yisrael Beytenu chairman Avigdor Liberman speaks during a press conference at the Knesset on December 11, 2019. (Yonatan Sindel/Flash90)
Yisrael Beytenu chief Avigdor Liberman claims it is “essentially a locked and done deal” that a government will be formed following the March elections, after two rounds of national votes in 2019 failed to produce a coalition.
“I don’t want to go into details, but… there won’t be a fourth election,” he tells the Ynet news site. “I want a coalition of all Zionist parties.”
Asked if he means another attempt to form a unity government, Liberman answers: “Not unity, I say all Zionist parties.”
Liberman also asserted ahead of the September election that there would not be a third vote — a claim that was proved wrong.
The Yisrael Beytenu leader also says he believes the old-new Yamina alliance of right-wing parties will not pass the electoral threshold to enter the Knesset, citing the infighting and mudslinging he claims will drive away voters.
He attacks its leaders Bezalel Smotrich and Rafi Peretz who “want to take us back to the days of King David, King Saul, [of] Biblical law.”
I am not sure we can count on Liberman to deliver here. Let me speculate what he means when he says Zionist Parties. He is clearly excluding the Arab Joint List that is obvious to anyone remotely knowledgeable on the subject.
He is also excluding the UTJ/Shas the Haredi parties who are not considered Zionist parties.
So that leaves as Zionist parties: Blue/White, Labor/Meretz, Yamina, and Likud.
So further speculation Bibi gets sidelined because he is at trial and does not get immunity. So the four Zionist parties form a coalition according to Liberman: Blue/White, Labor/Meretz, Yamina, and Likud.
I have a different take. I believe Liberman. During the last two times he said he wanted a unity government and he stuck by what he said. I kept saying that Bibi should put him in a room with UTJ and Shas until they make a deal. There was no other way to form a government.
Now Liberman says forming a government is a done deal and it will be a Zionist government. I believe him.
So the question is what happenned to bring this about? I think Liberman was told something to cause him to join the other Zionists who are right of center.. I think I know the answer.
Secondly when Bibi was getting ready for the third election, I kept saying the result would be the same and that’s why I backed Saar. But Bibi didn’t seem to care. Perhaps he had something else up his sleve. Perhaps he knew that Liberman had agreed to join and what brought them together.
In any event I believe we will have a Zionist government including Liberman’s Party.
These three polls taken around the same time show extremely varied results. Suggests public opinion is in turmoil and subject to rapid, unpredictable shifts. One poll shows the Left-Arab bloc only two seats from complete victory.
From Today’s Jerusalem Post. This means big trouble for Bibi and a big boost for Gantz.
My take on these stories: most of Jewish Home will refuse to follow Rafi Peretz onto the Yamina List. Instead, it will join with Otzma Yehudit to launch a spoiler’s campaign that will damage the right bloc. Granted a seat on the Yamina list, Otzma Yehudit would have been rendered harmless. Not so now.
From Today’s Arutz Sheva:
From today’s Jerusalem Post:
I think we can discount what Leiberman says. He is an irresponsiblle demagogue with no prophetic powers. He may even be a Russian agent, since it is difficult to see who could benefit from his political gyrations other than Russia.
However, the odds still heavily favor a Gantz-led Blue-White government. Leiberman’s all -Zionist- parties unity scheme is extremely unlikely due to the significant policy differences between these parties.But the likelihood that Bibi’s criminal trial will commence before March 2, or at least be scheduled for shortly thereafter, more or less precludes the possibility that the right bloc will have enough delegates to form a government. The Supreme Court, together with the ant-Bibi majority of the former MKs of the dissolved former Knesset, who have illegally declared ithemselvesf to still be the Knesset, with the support of their Legal Advisor and the Supreme Court, have given their approval to his being indicted and tried before March 2. And it is too late for the Likud to change its leader.Relatively few voters are going to vote for a prime minister who has not only been indicted, but whose trial has already begun. The “Center-left” bloc plus the Arabs, whom the pollsters have always included in the Center-left bloc, should be able to win a clear majority of the seats and form a government.
Even if they don’t get 61 seats for the Left bloc to rule on its own, Gantz and Lapid should be able to “tempt” the haredi parties to join them by threatening to cancel all of their powers, privileges and funding unless they agree to join a Blue-White government.
The only thing that could prevent Blue-White from forming a new government is if Gantz and Lapid from leading the new government is if they prove to be incompetent at persuading their potential coalition partners to join Blue-White in the new government, or if they fail to maintain discipline and unity in their own four-party coalition. Given their failure to form a government after the April election, despite 65 anti-Bibi MKs, make it possible that they will bungle negotiations this time around too. But that is the only way they can fail to form a government.
One thing consistent is Liberman talking too much!
Where is the advertising onslaught to persuade Yisrael Beytenu voters to abandon Liberman (from the brilliant marketers of candidates)?