T. Belman. This analysis sets out the dilemma quite well. I would have thought that with Bibi gone, many B&W voters would shift to the right. This poll says otherwise. The answer to this dilemma for the right might be for the New Right to join the Likud. This would give the combined parties 35 seats equaling those of the B&W. Jewish Home-National Union could be absorbed by either party thereby increasing the group to 3 more than B&W.
But something must still be done to increase the block to 61 seats. The only way this could be done is to steal Liberman’s thunder. The religious parties must be prevailed upon to give into Liberman’s demands as much as deemed necessary. UTJ and Shas will be better off if they do so in advance so they will be part of the ruling coaltion rather than go into opposition and to have the same if not worse concessions forced on them.
On the otherhand if this poll suggests that the right gets no more seats with Saar then why remove Bibi.
But Bibi would still have to force Shas and UTJ to compromise or what’s the point in another election.
Political impasse unlikely to end after a third election, Channel 12 survey indicates, unless the embattled prime minister is no longer head of the ruling party
By TOI STAFF
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressees his supporters at party headquarters after elections in Tel Aviv, September 18, 2019. (Ariel Schalit/AP)
A new election is not likely to get the country out of its current political impasse, according to a poll published Tuesday, unless Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is out of the picture.
The Channel 12 survey found little change in the parliamentary math that has prevented the formation of a government after two consecutive elections in April and September. That changes dramatically if Netanyahu is no longer Likud’s candidate for prime minister.
According to the poll, Blue and White will once again, as it has in September, emerge the largest party, rising to 34 seats from its current 33.
Likud would come in a close second, with 33 to its current 32.
The third-largest party, yet again, is the Arab Joint List alliance, with 13, the same number as today.
The figures change a bit for the smaller parties — ultra-Orthodox factions are stable, while both the smaller left-wing and right-wing parties shrink.
Shas and United Torah Judaism got 8 each, meaning one less for Shas and one more for UTJ than the current Knesset.
On the right, New Right wins 6, while Jewish Home-National Union drops below the 3.25-percent electoral threshold to 2.9% of votes. Since the two factions together won 7 seats in September, that marks only a small change overall. On the left, Labor-Gesher drops from 6 seats to 5, while the Democratic Camp drops from 5 to 4.
The tally, then, for the rightist-Haredi coalition that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hopes to lead, is 55 — the same as today, and six short of the 61-seat majority required to form a government.
One of the poll’s most interesting findings, and the one that ensures the political stalemate is likely to continue, is the strong showing for Yisrael Beytenu, whose leader Avigdor Liberman has refused to join any coalition except a secularist national unity government with both Likud and Blue and White.
His stubbornness has paid off handsomely, bringing him from 5 in the April election to 8 in September — to 9 in the latest poll.
That may be why respondents said by a two-to-one margin, 54% to 26%, that Netanyahu would continue to find himself unable to form a coalition, even after a third election. On the left and center, 77% predicted Netanyahu would fail, while the right was split evenly, with 41% predicting failure and 40% predicting success.
But everything changes if the embattled Netanyahu, facing corruption charges in three criminal cases, is forced out as Likud leader.
With Gideon Saar as leader
In the poll, respondents were asked how they would vote if Netanyahu’s main primary challenger, MK Gideon Sa’ar, was leading Likud instead.
The answer bodes poorly for Likud, as votes are reshuffled among right-wing parties, largely to its detriment, while no real difference emerges in the final tally of parliamentary blocs.
Thus, Likud falls precipitously to 26 seats. Some of those lost Likud votes, as has happened in the past, go to Shas, which jumps to 10 seats. More go to New Right, which leaps to 9 seats.
The far-right Jewish Home-National Union would not enjoy a similar windfall from Likud’s losses, remaining outside the Knesset at 2.9% of votes.
Outside the rightist-Haredi factions, Blue and White rises slightly to 35 seats, widening the gap with Likud to fully 9 seats.
The Joint List stays at third place, with the same 13. UTJ stays at 8.
The left, too, is largely unaffected: Labor-Gesher at 6 and Democratic Camp at 4.
And, crucially, kingmaker Yisrael Beytenu retains its strength at 9 seats.
A rightist-Haredi coalition, then, would stand at 53, but with a smaller Likud unlikely to get the first shot at forming a coalition, could have a harder time preventing a Gantz-led government in the next round.
Then again, with Netanyahu gone and Sa’ar thought to be more open to compromise for a unity government, Likud may not need the rest of the conservative factions. Blue and White and Likud could form a 61-seat coalition all by themselves, with Liberman’s 9 added in for good measure, not to mention others who have already said they would be happy to join such a government, like New Right (9) and Labor-Gesher (6).
A Sa’ar-led Likud, the poll suggests, would therefore likely end the political deadlock in a way that would benefit Blue and White, New Right and Yisrael Beytenu, and those factions in Likud (and there are a few) eager to move on from the Netanyahu era.
The big losers, of course, would be Netanyahu himself and the Haredi parties.
Another relevant data point from the survey concerns overall public trust in Sa’ar.
Given a choice of Netanyahu or Gantz for who was most fit to be prime minister, 40% said Netanyahu and 39% Gantz. (Another 14% said neither was fit, 7% did not know.)
Asked the same question with Sa’ar and Gantz, Gantz sees 40%, Sa’ar 23%. “Neither” jumped to 24%, “Don’t know” to 13%.
The survey was conduct by pollster Mano Geva and the Midgam institute, with 510 adult respondents answering by phone and online on November 26. The margin of error was 4.4%.
@ Sebastien Zorn:
Foundation means foundation. It is a precise word. It means no real theory with which to approach these issues.
You make a comment about me not liking people. That is very true actually. I loved my little dog who died coming up to 2 years ago and I love my little cat, a bit feral, not socialised properly at all, and that is about it.
The rest I look at their politics.
I was very struck by how Dalgliesh normally so vocal could not utter a word on the biggest issue since 1967. And I could not see much from you either. But I was also struck by the decisiveness of Edgar and by his rich detail on the issue. This detail came out of his experience which is unique to him.
So he reads Liberman exactly correctly. He says go along to the IDF, ask how many of these religious men and women do you need, a precise figure please, then complete the circle. What a clever way to address the issue. And I respect this most of allbecause it respects 4000 years of jewish history, and I like respecting Jewish History because I have my own irish celtic history which seems to me to chime in.
So forget all this stuff about me being out of order on a Jewish site. All I know is that the Jews of Lithuania in 1941 simply had no time left, time had run out for them.
In the end time is the only real factor in political life.
Ted Belman has made Israpundit into a climate denial site. I mean DENIAL writ large. That more and more is the ground I am fighting on.
But this battle to save our earth can not ever be fought on a “globalist” basis but has to come out of the nation. The Irish and the Jews are very alike in this and this must be made into a conscious factor whereas now it is not even thought about.
I saw your position on this. It is back there somewhere. You simply chimed out a whole litany of positions. but not mentioning any science at all. That is why I concluded you have no real roots in political life. You are totally subjective. An opinion is zero. It has zero value. Even Alex Jones and David Icke have “opinions”.
Plus on the issue of time I have never really learned much from you so I do not intend to prolong this.
@ Adam Dalgliesh:
It is obvious to me that we are coming down to very basic questions and 1. this issue of Liberman raises the roots of the Jewish nationhood and the fact that it is based on 4000 years of struggle to be a nation, growing froma tribe etcetera., but most importantly moving through many ways of human living, iron age like the Celts, Slavery like the Romans, Medieval and changing into Capitalism, but then 2. the same questions are being raised on a homo sapiens basis
there is another aspect as well that is wise to not forget and that aspect is “time”. the time factor always exists. The historian Dieckmann may not mean to but does raise this in his writings and youtube videos concerning the Holocaust in Lithuania.
…
Dr. Cristoph Dieckmann (Keele University until 2014)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HH2ocwBuFEA
In 2012 Dr. Christoph Dieckmann, of Keele University (UK), was awarded the Yad Vashem International Book Prize for Holocaust Research for his 2-volume book Deutsche Besatzungspolitik in Litauen 1941-1944 (German Occupation Policy in Lithuania 1941-1944).
He explains his research for his book (book is referred to in Wikipedia article…In 2012, he was awarded the Yad Vashem International Book Prize for Holocaust Research for his two volume work Deutsche Besatzungspolitik in Litauen 1941-1944 (“German Occupation Policy in Lithuania 1941-1944.”)
He seems to give too little weight to the role of the Catholic Church in Lithuania (read also the whole area)
He says that the Stalin occupation in 1940, a product of the Stalin…Hitler pact, was the cause, in that there was a layer in Lithuanian Society who opposed the Stalin occupation on nationalist grounds. They became the people active in the Holocaust of the Jews in Lithuania.
This seems to me to be a factor but the grounds were laid by centuries of Catholic antisemitism. THAT is the starting point. The Stalinist occupation would be a trigger. Not the cause.
This raises immediately the role of Stalinism and with that the alternative to Stalinism, Trotskyism.
Down to…The position of Stalin and the position of Trotsky
…to Fascism
…to Jewish self determination
…to the Hitler Stalin pact of 1939
Why are people hiding this part of history. That perplexes.
The interview above is interesting. There was the position of the Germans, of the Lithuanians, and the Jews. Good work here by Deickmann and shows he has a method.
Of the Jews he says…The Jews did not have time to react. For the Jews it was simply to find a way to survive. His description of this is the most valuable part of the interview.
The question today is how any person can say that the Jews learning the lesson of history, especially of these experiences, do not need a state of their own, defies all logic. It is not rational.
So if not rational it is a prejudice. Back to antisemitism.
@ Edgar G.:
I am an Asimov reader, but it was a joke. First, I was the incorrigible Stalinist and now I am without Foundation. He is an off the wall ideologue. A fanatic who has nothing nice to say about anyone, especially Ted. Except for you, a felllow Irishman, in between passionately spouting irrelevant nonsense about how he will be an Irish Marxist until he dies. He just likes you because you are Irish. On a Jewish nationalist site. And everything he says is a cliche. So a little parody is in order, don’t you think?
@ Bear Klein: There is no way the religious parties will ever yield to Leiberman’s demands, since they are directly opposed to these parties’ raison d’être. They exist to maintain the powers of the Orthodox, mainly haredi rabbinate. Lieberman now demands that they relinquish support for the rabbinate–even though their loyalty to it is absolute. Obviously a non-starter.
It should be obvious that Leiberman has broken his ties with the right-of-center block and joined the left-of-center block led by Blue-White. To paraphrase Caesar’s remark when he led his soldiers across the Rubicon, Leiberman’s die is cast. There is no going back for now.
@ Sebastien Zorn:
Don’t be so “snarky” about my being recognised as “honourable”.I’ve always regarded myself as so. And, coming from Felix, it is a great compliment. And I could never stand Shakespeare…(preferred all the Harrison Ainsworth books-which I have)…..although I have a sneaking sympathy for that “sharper than a serpent’s tooth” scene.
Interesting to see that you have been an Azimov reader . Me too, I can’t say I’ve read everything he produced -no one could have, but I’ve read everything of his I could come across including the complete I Robot, as well as the Foundation series and offshoots. I even have a rare item of his, which was the introduction to an Amazing, I think, in the early 70s. The smaller sized pulps. It was about the chance of there being life on other planets. The way he laid it out, rather in “grids”, and used the most reasonable methods to postulate certain requirements, and cut the figures down drastically, leaving, as I recall, several hundreds of planets capable of developing life, and (I can’t recall) a certain number which would have to have biological life, with human characteristics , skeletal build, thought and concepts.
I treasure it, far more than anything of Clarke , Campbell, Heinlein, Merritt, Gernsback et al, although I have far more significant and valuable items.
My favourite illustrator, hands down, was Virgil Finlay.
There was a newer poll:
Scenario Poll: Saar leading Likud
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
33 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
28 [32] Likud (Saar)
14 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
12 [03] HaYamin HeHadash (Bennett)
11 [09] Shas (Deri)
09 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
09 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
04 [06] Labor (A.Peretz)
Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold
00 [05] Democratic Union (Horowitz)
00 [04] United Right List (R.Peretz)
00 [–-] Otzma (Ben Gvir)
Phase 2 Recommendations:
60 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
51 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
09 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)
*Balad which was part of the Joint List withdrew the recommendations of their 3 MKs.
I do not think that britain 2019 is the same as Lithuania in 1941,and the main thing is here is no Nazi party internationally as was from 1933, but having said that in terms of leadership we are running out of time
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10219375676557172&set=a.10208567650283270&type=3&theater
@ Sebastien Zorn:
Sections throughout the world are preparing to line up with Nazism, that is really what the support for Palestinism is about.
@ Yoel Ben-Avraham:
This is a very good statement:
“If we take the non-Jewish voter out of the equation, the forces in favor of Israel is a “Jewish” state in the sense of a country that draws its inspiration and ethos from almost four Millenium of Jewish history and belief versus those who want a Jewish state in name only, but really want a state-of-whomever-lives here with the rights of the individual and the right to the “pursuit of happiness” as the highest values are almost equal.”
Perfectly expressed!
One of the greatest things about the Jewish people is that they persisted and existed through 4000 years or so of an amazing history. Somehow they are still here. Here the jingoist will add “and look how well we are doing” but in fact the tests today are as dangerous as ever, I would say, you are a fool if you think that.
And Israeli leadership is in essence bankrupt. Dalgliesh as one example had to wait about a week before he could venture an opinion on the fascist type coup against Netanyahu. Maybe Yamit is ill OK. Belman as always just went with the flow, the flow this time being a fascist type coup. Edgar was honourable. Zorn as always without a real foundation.
And I waited for days to get any response from Martin Sherman.
That is all a question of non leadership
Nobody can tell me without me snorting in derision that the Jews under these kinds of leaders will persist for 20 more years
And why should it be important anyway for me, and the answer is that I, as being an Irish Marxist, am facing the same issue. My future as an Irish Marxist and the Jews future in being loyal to their past are very alike.@ Sebastien Zorn:
Sebastien OK but it is much more than not changing horses in mid stream see https://www.israpundit.org/netanyahus-options . Perhaps it is that American Imperialism, and Trump still represents that, remembering his endorsement of the White Helmets staged theatre against Assad when the UN was visiting, have learned that they cannot defeat Islam. For many reasons they are incapable of defeating Islam. it is a truly socialist revolutionary action to defeat that deeply entrenched ideology and practice. This is reflected from American Imperialism into the Israeli Jewish political leaders. So then my reading is that they seek a compromise with the Islamists, that is with the Nazis of today. That may be the real division. The same is happening in my own country Ireland where they flood the small Irish population with Muslims, and in this Palestinism is a card they play too.
There is still time to form a right-wing government (not likely) but possible per Liberman:
@ Felix Quigley:
“For Edgar is an honourable man;
So are they all, all honourable men–” William Shakespeare, Julius Caesar, Act 3, Scene 2, “Friends, Romans, Countrymen” speech
By the way, the allegation that I am without “Foundation” is counter-factual. In point of fact, I have read Isaac Asimov’s “Foundation” trilogy and all the sequels and prequels by him and other writers several times, I’ll have you know. And I’m the better Irish Marxist for it, too, me laddie. Are you ready for your quiz on the three laws of Robotics?
@ Yoel Ben-Avraham:
This is a very good statement:
“If we take the non-Jewish voter out of the equation, the forces in favor of Israel is a “Jewish” state in the sense of a country that draws its inspiration and ethos from almost four Millenium of Jewish history and belief versus those who want a Jewish state in name only, but really want a state-of-whomever-lives here with the rights of the individual and the right to the “pursuit of happiness” as the highest values are almost equal.”
Perfectly expressed!
One of the greatest things about the Jewish people is that they persisted and existed through 4000 years or so of an amazing history. Somehow they are still here. Here the jingoist will add “and look how well we are doing” but in fact the tests today are as dangerous as ever, I would say, you are a fool if you think that.
And Israeli leadership is in essence bankrupt. Dalgliesh as one example had to wait about a week before he could venture an opinion on the fascist type coup against Netanyahu. Maybe Yamit is ill OK. Belman as always just went with the flow, the flow this time being a fascist type coup. Edgar was honourable. Zorn as always without a real foundation.
And I waited for days to get any response from Martin Sherman.
That is all a question of non leadership
Nobody can tell me without me snorting in derision that the Jews under these kinds of leaders will persist for 20 more years
And why should it be important anyway for me, and the answer is that I, as being an Irish Marxist, am facing the same issue. My future as an Irish Marxist and the Jews future in being loyal to their past are very alike.
It appears to me, a former Canadian who lives in Israel this past (almost) 50 years, that the kulturkampf that has simmered beneath the surface of Israeli society since its inception has finally transformed from a glowing ember to full-blown flame.
If we take the non-Jewish voter out of the equation, the forces in favor of Israel is a “Jewish” state in the sense of a country that draws its inspiration and ethos from almost four Millenium of Jewish history and belief versus those who want a Jewish state in name only, but really want a state-of-whomever-lives here with the rights of the individual and the right to the “pursuit of happiness” as the highest values are almost equal.
How this plays out, either as a comprise that makes it possible for both parties to coexist or as a power struggle where the winner creates an environment where the loser can no longer feel comfortable – is impossible to forecast. What I can safely say is that our enemies will not still back quietly waiting until we resolve this dilemma.
@Ted, One poll while many people in the Lkud are currently angry at Saar for saying that it is time for Bibi to go does not mean for sure what would happen in a few months. Then I do not know it does not either.
Why Liberman is not under investigation? https://www.timesofisrael.com/the-one-who-got-away-ex-prosecutor-laments-the-failure-to-indict-liberman/ Everything about Liberman. By former prosecutor Avia Alef (Her book “The Avigdor Liberman Case”)
Perhaps if the Haredim grant all the concessions you say, Lieberman’s supporters, seeing how successful he is, would renew their energy and begin to see him as the next PM, and attracting other seculars to vote for him in greater numbers.
Since it’s mostly a “paper” red herring, why not get high IDF officials to issue a statement as to how many Haredim they actually need, and how many are turning out, The difference between the two figures would be small. This might show up Lieberman as a grasping windy populist charlatan, who can clutch an opportunity to stir up secular hatred for the Haredim and run with it to undeserved popularity., with the potential great damage to the State..
The fact that Sa’ar would fail badly to hold any reins that Netanyahu dropped, is leading us into more and more contrived, tortuous scenarios ….just so as to have a govt…ANY govt, without Netanyahu…..