Dr Eldad Fredo, an internationally acclaimed expert on Iran, talks exclusively to Arutz Sheva.
ARUTZ SHEVA
Dr Eldad Fredo, a researcher at the Truman Institute, is an expert on Iran, and feels that Iran is unlikely to engage in any conflict with Israel.
Dr Fredo feels that the attack by Israel in Syria was not a response to the rocket fire, rather a response to Iranian expansion into Syria. “It would seem Iran was continuing activities in Syria and it was a correct time to strike,” he stresses that his estimations are not based on intelligence, or on military insight.
“There was a Iranian attack on Saudi Arabia a number of months back. They attacked a number of important crude oil instillation. This was an attack with global ramifications. Firstly, the attack was against the world’s energy source, similar to a nuclear bomb attack. The US didn’t respond, but it was noted. Second, even with American defense systems, the Iranians succeeded, a worry for Israel as well.”
“We know that Israel had protected itself previously by attacking targets in Syria. Israel prevented a combined attack of drones and missiles by gathering intelligence and carrying out preventative attacks. We do not know for certain if the missiles can be stopped once they are airborne. Therefore, Israel’s only choice may be to carry out preventative attacks.”
Dr Fredo points out that Iran is working on a pincer movement, northwards via Afghanistan to the Mediterranean, southwards to Yemen and the Gulf. “The whole purpose is to encircle Mecca and Medina, control the holy places and then expand to control the world. This is written in their constitution.”
“We need to pay attention to the recent demonstrations in Iran that join the already violent riots in Iraq, there is unrest in Lebanon, in the Shia population. we saw a round of violence between Islamic Jihad to Israel, that are an Iranian proxy, and Hamas didn’t intervene. Hamas chose Israel over Iran. Meaning all over the Iranian empire there is unrest.”
This unrest, Dr Fredo says is very troubling for the Iranian leadership, and therefore Iran is unlikely to attack Israel, even after the strikes in Syria. “The last thing they want is a new front against Israel, there are riots all over Iran, with deaths, the authorities have closed the internet all over the country. It’s possible that these demonstrations will dissipate, it’s also possible that they won’t.”
“One of the slogans of these demonstrations is that the authorities are spending money on Palestinians and not on it’s own citizens, another is ‘not to Syria and not to Gaza, my soul I devote to Iran.’ Meaning the main point of contention is the fact that Iran is pumping money into Gaza. The main point is because of Iran’s efforts towards nuclear weapons, the infrastructure is coming apart.”
Certainly the Mullahs will sacrifice their own people, who they hate more and more anyway, will sacrifice iran which to them is kind of not real, but a vehicle for religion, and their own bodies which also are to them not real, in order to destroy Israel.
Will the America of Trump save Israel? That is very uncertain. trump did not save Mandefort, Michael Flynn, Stone. In fact Trump is in alliance again in 2020 with Pence the very man who knifed Flynn in the back. These things need to be considered and not yelled at “You Hate trump!” no I do not hate anybody just try to understand for a reason.
Global Warming of the earth is my number one concern. It is followed by this
“DEBKAfile’s sources judge the activation of advanced centrifuges in the Fordow underground enrichment plant near the holy town of Qom to be the most substantial step Tehran has taken thus far in response to the US exit and the tough sanctions the Trump administration has imposed on Iran’s oil exports. If it goes forward as threatened, Iran’s nuclear program will in short order – maybe in the space of two or three months – be able to ramp up its stock of enriched uranium sufficiently to approach a quantity of nuclear weapons grade fuel.
https://www.debka.com/iran-reactivates-fordow-uranium-enrichment-plant-nears-nuclear-weapon-capacity/
@ Edgar G.:
Yes it is the curse of Islam that is at stake. And it is the same islam as that of the “palestinians” and the same problems of the crisis inthe left on this sisue of Islam.
So there are many issues wrapped up in this.
if you investigate also the issue of the Tudeh party tied to Moscow in 1979 you will find a deepening of the problem, where Stalinism was preaching that Islam was revolutionary, and many swallowed this.
thus the revolution in 1979 was derailed and Islam won.
the Mullahs have one thing going for them and it is always decisive. They have the state and they have the leadership. the people opposing them do not have the state and do not have a leadership.
I cannot go further than that. do not know the future. But the cards for change are stacked against them UNTIL THOSE ISSUES ARE RESOLVED.
I have talked about that before here but I am getting no further.
Most Iranians will never be allies of Israel. The Shah and the Westernized middle class are gone. How did the mullahs come to power, if not for the fact that the people were nothing like the elite? Don’t be fooled. The current anger is about poverty, not a desire to be friends with Jews.
@ Sebastien Zorn:
That’s a novel but very accurate way of putting it
@ Edgar G.:
I agree. Iran is the only Muslim country in the MIddle East in which the government is worse than the people.
@ Frank Adam:
I’m surprised at your query. As soon as the Ayatollahs are torn to shreds, the country in huge masses will opt for Democracy and intercourse with the Civilised World., from which they have been deprived for 40 years. They were always a Western oriented people, modern and civilised, just like a normal nation.
The interesting question is what sort of an Iran will emerge with what policies when the ayatollahs do crumple ??
As with reformation Britain and France, and Soviet and post Soviet Russia, foreign policy objectives remained fairly constant even though the internal manners stayed changed to some degree.
The most insidious form of anti-Semitism: “We don’t hate Jews, we hate Israel and Zionism”. Anti-Zionism Is more than Anti-Semitism. It becomes a doctrine of extermination when a nation’s history is negated. That Anti-Zionism can be viewed as a genocide summation is based on the persecution and mass murder of Jews in exiled lands, while barring their return to the land they were exiled from. Not rocket science.
The officer may be an expert on Iran, but not on anti-semitism. The Ayatollah hates Jews more than he loves his own people. He fails to take into account that the man is crippled in his right arm as an Adult as the result of an attack and the thinking of such a person is different than that of healthy persons. In his mind he needs someone to blame and as usual it’s the Jews. He can’t blame himself for the attack. He needs an external enemy to accept the blame and to receive his vengeance. He’s not acting in the best interests of the people of Iran in anything that he does. He is internally motivated. The author sees the world as he is rather than as the world is.