Unity government? Liberman plus the religious right? Gantz getting Arab support? With inconclusive results, someone will have to compromise to avoid 3rd elections in a year
By Michael Bachner, TOI Today, 1:36 pm
Although the final results of Tuesday’s elections have yet to come in, enough has been published to establish that no candidate or party has a straightforward path to forming a governing coalition with at least 61 lawmakers in the 120-member Knesset.
According to the official results, counting some 90 percent of the votes, the next Knesset will look like this: The Blue and White centrist alliance has 32 seats, just ahead of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing Likud with 31. Next is the Joint List alliance of Arab-majority parties with 13 seats. Then come the ultra-Orthodox Shas and secular right-wing Yisrael Beytenu with nine seats each, followed by United Torah Judaism with eight. Bringing up the rear are Yamina with seven, Labor-Gesher with six and the Democratic Camp with five.
The right-wing religious bloc has a total of 55 seats, the center-left has 56, putting Avigdor Liberman in kingmaker position with his Yisrael Beytenu party’s nine seats.
Assuming the final tally won’t be wildly different, what could the next coalition look like? Here are the options.
Unity government
A coalition comprising both Likud and Blue and White was urged by Liberman and Blue and White on the campaign trail, and remains the most likely outcome of the election.
However, there are many shapes such a government could take, and it leaves open the most significant question of who would be prime minister. That is subject to coalition negotiations that will take weeks, if not longer.
A unity government could see Netanyahu continue as premier or Gantz take over that role, but the most likely outcome would be some sort of rotation whereby one of them would serve as prime minister for the first couple of years, then hand over to the other. In that case, the question remains as to who will be first.
A unity government could also include Likud without Netanyahu, as Blue and White has insisted. The premier is facing corruption charges in three cases, including a bribery charge in one, pending a hearing, which is to be held on October 2-3, leading the centrist party to declare it won’t join a coalition with him. Likud, however, has thus far stood firmly behind its longtime chairman, and Blue and White might have to compromise on that.
However, if Likud ends up deposing Netanyahu, a whole new question opens up: Who will take the reins of the party, whose leadership has been monopolized by one man for a decade and a half? It could be its No. 2, Knesset Speaker Yuli Edelstein, Foreign Minister Israel Katz, Public Security Minister Gilad Erdan, Netanyahu’s internal rival Gideon Sa’ar, or someone else.
Another question is whether the unity government will include Yisrael Beytenu. Between them, Likud and Blue and White have enough Knesset seats to form a coalition, rendering Liberman’s party unnecessary, although politicians usually prefer to make their coalition as broad as possible. Liberman has said he would be okay with a unity government even if he is excluded.
Other parties could also potentially join a unity government, although that could raise objections within either Likud or Blue and White. The ultra-Orthodox parties could join despite the presence of their nemesis Yair Lapid, Blue and White’s No. 2, who along with Gantz has vowed not to form a government with the Haredi parties.
With the Yamina alliance immediately splitting into three separate factions, Ayelet Shaked’s and Naftali Bennett’s New Right could potentially join without putting off Blue and White, which has vowed a coalition without “extremists and messianists” — a likely reference not to New Right but to the more hardline National Union, led by Bezalel Smotrich, and Rafi Peretz’s Jewish Home.
Likud would likely not be happy with efforts to have the left-wing Democratic Camp parties join a unity government.
Right-wing government with Liberman
The coalition that ruled Israel until Yisrael Beytenu bolted in November 2018 included all the right-wing and religious parties. However, after Liberman turned down all of Netanyahu’s offers to form such a government again in the aftermath of the April elections, triggering Tuesday’s vote, it is extremely unlikely that he will now agree to such a coalition.
There is a small chance, however, that the ultra-Orthodox parties will balk at going to the opposition and instead opt to compromise with Liberman over the latter’s demand to pass unaltered a bill regulating the military draft of Haredi seminary students, which thus far has been a nonstarter for them.
Right-wing religious government plus Labor
During the campaign, there have been stubborn rumors that Amir Peretz, chairman of the alliance between Labor and Orly Levy-Abekasis’s Gesher, could lead the party into a right-wing Netanyahu government. Labor previously entered such a government in 2009, but it may be electoral suicide this time around after Peretz repeatedly insisted that under no circumstances would that happen, going as far as to shave his mustache after 47 years to get his point across.
Indeed, while Likud reached out to Peretz after the results of Tuesday’s elections began to emerge, the latter made it clear that he was not interested in joining a Netanyahu-led coalition.
Such a government would also have a razor-thin Knesset majority and would therefore be very unstable.
Center-left government
Likud warned in its campaign that both Liberman and Joint List chairman Ayman Odeh had spoken about recommending Gantz as prime minister. However, a government that includes both parties, which despise each other, seems impossible. Liberman has said he won’t join a coalition with the Arab parties, and most factions within the Joint List reacted with outrage to Odeh’s comment about possible political cooperation with Blue and White.
Gantz has the option of forming a minority government with outside support from the Arab parties, but both sides wouldn’t be thrilled with that arrangement and the resulting government would be on extremely shaky ground.
Another option could be for the ultra-Orthodox parties to join Blue and White, Labor-Gesher and Democratic Camp. Similar center-left governments with the Haredi parties existed in Israel decades ago, but Shas and United Torah Judaism (UTJ) have in recent decades become automatic supporters of Likud. And UTJ already declared Wednesday it stands by Likud “all the way.”
Another problem is that as it stands, those parties seem to add up to a very narrow majority — not a recipe for a stable coalition.
(Yet) another election
In the unlikely scenario that the deadlock will continue and produce a third national vote in less than a year — an option nobody wants — it will extend the period of time in which national leadership is pretty much on hold, cost additional billions of shekels, and further erode public interest in a process that is likely to again produce an indecisive result.
Many parties, as well as President Reuven Rivlin, have promised to do everything to avoid another election, and Liberman has vowed to deny any such proposal the parliamentary majority it would need to pass. But the only way to achieve that would be for some party or parties to compromise on their campaign promises.
The question is who is going to be the first to blink.
@ Jesa Kreiner:
Does he? It doesn’t seem like that to me at all. Liberman is an egomaniac that does what he believes is best for himself.
@ Jesa Kreiner:
Very liberal of you. In the real world, they want a different Israel from the one most of us in Israel want, or maybe even the end of Israel. In addition they function as a collective which wants to deny our vision. We embrace different narratives and must be on our guard lest they bring about our destruction. Israel shouldn’t be expected to house two different peoples at odds with one another..
Why should we open ourselves to that .You say because it would be undemocratic not to. But we don’t worship at that alter.
We are missing a constitution which defines defines Israel as a state of the Jews rather than a state of all its citizens. Any Arab whowould be loayal to such a state would be welcomed to participate more fully.
So the fight goes on.
Keep in mind that the Israeli Arabs are citizens of the country and should have a say in how it is governed. Not all of them are against Israel. Or against the Jews. If a healthy relationship with the Israeli Arabs is accomplished it will be better for every one. No, I am not suggesting placing them in the security of the country but giving them an opportunity to provide constructive input and enable them to feel empowered. Just as Liberman does what he believes is the best for the country.
@ Adam Dalgliesh:
True about the Arab Nationalist parties.
Do you think Odeh falls into that category? How would you categorize his party and him? Not the other parties on the Joint List.
To my knowledge he is a pro co-existence with Jews.
@ Laura:
Laura, I don’t hate Bibi. In fact, I am hoping he will remain Prime Minister. Even serve another term. What I meant to suggest is that ifthe Attorney General insists on indicting him, and if he then steps down to prepare his defense, the Left would lose the one issue that has been helping them with some sectors of the public–the possibility that Bibi will be indicted. In a campaign fought on the issues, the Right would be assured of an overwhelming victory, because the overwhelming majority of Jewish voters support the Right’s positions, not the Left’s.
Again, I hope that Bibi is not indicted and instead serves as Prime Minister for the next Knesset term. But if he is indicted, I think the pressure on him from the A-G, the Supreme Court, the president, etc. will force him to retire. If that happens–and I think it will be very unjust, because I believe him to be innocent of all charges–I hope that his party will accept his recommendation for his successor as party leader and Prime Minister.
As for Leiberman, I agree with your estimate of him.
@ Adam Dalgliesh:Prediction the legally required monthly security briefing will contain some of the most boring publicly known information available.
Ayman Odeh likely cares a lot more the Nation State Law and other things that irritate the Israeli Arabs. If you do not agree (in advance) it is fine. I know the sky is falling.
@ Adam Dalgliesh:
Who said I was for this?
Yes I would like a different PM but prefer Bibi to Gantz.
I do not hate Bibi I just wish the right had a good new PM candidate.
Calm Down please! You are claiming things about that are not correct.
@ Adam Dalgliesh:
Why do you and others hate Bibi, he’s by far the BEST PM Israel has ever had. It should never have come to another election but for filthy dog liberman. There’s a place in hell reserved for him.
@ Bear Klein:
Yes it is, its very cathartic. And I despise ugly, fat, dog-faced russian gangster liberman.
@ Bear Klein: His name is Odeh, not Oded, Bear. If he becomes the ‘official” leader of the opposition, he will have to be given regular security briefings. Everything that he is told will quickly be in the hands of Hamas and Fatah, and maybe Hizbollah as well. The Arab nationalist-Islamist-Communist parties are tied in withall of the above.
Of course, if Odeh is actually in the government, it will be even harder to keep national security information away from him and his associates. In addition, he will be in a position to block miitary operations necessary for Israel’s defense, and give the government the support it needs (Gantz has in any case more or less committed himself to this) to hand over the 100+ plus settlements to the PLO and expel their 85-900 inhabitants.
Bear, are you and those who think like you really so desperate to get rid of Bibi that you are willing to gravely compromise Israel’s national security to accomplish this? To replace Bibi with Hamas, Hezbollah and Fatah agents within the Israeli government?
@ Bear Klein:
Excellent analysis.
The following article expresses what is going on the best in the elections. The writer Lahav Harkov (who is also an editor at the JPOST) has worked on the Knesset beat for a while now and is very knowledgeable.
@ Ted Belman:I listened to more than one interview with Oded and he said, I have NO mandate by my voters NOT to recommend Gantz. I will consider this. He stated he considers Netenyahu to be a racist but he must thank him for getting out his voters to the ballot box. His goal he stated is to be the head of the opposition, so can bring to light things thank are not fair to the Arabs. (all paraphrased). In the Arab sector many would welcome Gantz as PM, because they in large numbers hate Bibi. They believe he is a racist. This is not universal as the Arabs are not all of one mind.
Lieberman is on record saying he wants a unity government plus having his demands met. If Gantz agrees to his demands (and and why NOT they mirror Lapid’s demands) I predict he will recommend Gantz. HE WILL NOT recommend Bibi as he wants him removed from the Likud.
Peretz of Labor just again said he would not sit with Bibi in a government repeating what he said during the election run up.
Either someone is coming off their stated positions or as unthinkable as it sound Election number.
Anyway this will all take time. Either someone who said they will NOT accept a government with Bibi will bend or the Likud will get rid of Bibi and pave the way to a unity government. Bibi doing a deal with Attorney General where he leaves the Likud and gets immunity from all charges currently on the table.
With 95% of votes counted,
– Blue and White at 33 seats,
– Likud at 32
– Arab Joint List – 12
– Shas – 9
– Yisrael Beytenu – 8
– United Torah Judaism – 8
– Yamina – 7
Labor-Gesher – 6
Democratic Camp – 5
Broken down into possible recommendations for prime minister to President Reuven Rivlin,
– Netanyahu 56 seats (Likud, Shas, UTJ, Yamina).
– Gantz, with (possibly) 52 votes from his own faction, left-wing Labor-Gesher and Democratic Camp, and Yisrael Beytenu.
Apparently Oded is not recommending.
@ Bear Klein:
Either Oded or Liberman or both are on record as saying they won’t recommend anyone.
@ Bear Klein: Bear, could you give us the votes for the other parties as well? You Hebrew skills are an enormous help to us. When I checked out the Hebrew sight you recommended to us, it appeared to give the results for only 63 per cent of the votes counted, if I read it correctly. The Jerusalem Post estimates of the new Knesset seats are also based on about 63% of the counted votes. From what source have you learned (I am not questioning your veracity or accuracy) about how it is shaping up with nearly 100% per cent of the votes counted.
One website says the absentee ballots from the army won’t be counted until tomorrow. That amounts to 7% of the vote , this site says (I can’t remember the site’s name, but it reports on election around the world. Name something like “electizer”).
If this site is correct on this point, 7 per cent of the vote could make a real difference in the final vote totals. Soldiers usually tend to vote hawkish.
As the immortal Yogi said, “it ain’t over until its over.”
As the vote count approaches 100% the following changes occurred:
Blue & White 33 +1
Likud 32 +1
Liberman 8 -1
Arab List 12 -1
@ Ted Belman:
The trouble is ODED might recommend Gantz along with Liberman and the two leftist parties. Oded and the Arabs will not be part of the govt. but would by current vote counts have 65 recommendations.
For anyone who is not aware especially Jews who do not live in Israel an informative article was written by the JPost on Russian Speakings Jews great contribution to Israel and Zionism.
Full article at https://www.jpost.com/genesis/genesis.aspx
@ Laura:Such hate is not healthy.
Arutz Sheva reports today that all of the “right” parties have agreed to form a united negotiating bloc for the post-election negotiations. A very positive move that will strenghten the Right’s hands in the negotiations.
@ Ted Belman:
Wishful thinking.
@ David melech:
No, I’m not Israeli. But apparently I know better than them what is good for Israel.
@ Ted Belman: Sure hope you are right, Ted.
@ Laura:
Did you vote?
Rivlin will give Netanyahu the nod to build the coalition because, though he has one seat less, more parties will recommend him and that’s what counts. He’ll have more recommendations than Gantz.
So I am not worried. He will get it done this time.
@ Bear Klein:
Whatever. Who cares where he’s from. I hate the fat, ugly dog-faced piece of shit. And yes I HATE the Russian emigres who aren’t Jewish and should never have been accepted into the country. They are a fifth column just like the arabs. Anyway, it’s not my country so to hell with them. If Israelis want to self-destruct I have no control over that.
Well, the Israelis blew it, big time. They had a great PM. Mark Levin compares it to the British voting out Churchill after WW2. What a ridiculously convoluted system. I’m done caring about or defending Israel, it’s not worth my time and effort. If the Israelis want to destroy themselves, so be it. I’m ashamed to be Jewish today.
@ Laura:
In your hate fest Liberman is from Moldova. I am not a fan of his personally and their certainly are some bad actors among the million former Soviet emigrees to Israel. However they as a group helped make Israel stronger in science, sport and their contribution to the IDF.
Really too bad you have such hate these Jews. Yes some are not born of Jewish mothers but they are Israelis who contribute to the State and the Jewish people as whole greatly.
The whole Right Wing is now one Big Negotiating Block (LIKUD, Yamina, UTJ, SHAS). So when making ones hypothetical coalitions or lack thereof. It will not very difficult to pick off any party from the right/relgious block to form a coalition.
They will be negotiating from strength but with too many chiefs. Can they make a deal with Labor alone and will the numbers suffice. Can they make a deal with the Blue/White?
Or does this simply insure election number three early next year?
Guess the jokes on Israelis. Imagine a 3rd Whitehall farce this year. Time to change the system except you need a sitting parliament.
Then there’s the system other countries have the IDF takes control. They already run J-S so why not the rest.
Martial law.
Most of this writers’ analysis is sound. One possible option that no one has thought of would be for the Right parties to wait out the 56 days while everyone fails to put together a winning coalition, then have a third election without Bibi as the Likud candidate. Bibi may well agree to this if he is indicted, which seems likely. He will want to concentrate on his legal defense. Without Bibi on the ticket, the Right bloc would win handily. In the meantime, I think there is a provision of Israeli law that would enable the President to convene an emergency meeing of the Knesset to provide funding for the government departments, with the support of two thirds of the Knesset members. That could probably be achieved, at least for the Defense budget.
@ Adam Dalgliesh:
Blame it on the fat russian gangster. He’s a mole inside the Israeli government. He needs to have his Israeli citizenship revoked along with a good number of those marginally “Jewish” russians who are likely anti-Israel spies.
The “center-left” if you leave out the Arabs and Leiberman has 43 seats, not 56. The pollsters have all along assumed that the Arabs are part of the “Center-left” bloc, meaning that they have all along assumed that they would be part of a Gantz government. The Arabs are not “center-left,” they are Islamists and Arab nationalists. With the enemy actually inside the the government,Israel hasn’t much of a chance.
Liberman is a steaming pile of shit. This spiteful, bigoted, hateful Russian gangster has given Israel’s enemies around the world a victory. Send his fat ass back to Russia and revoke his Israeli citizenship. Is it any wonder I hate russians. It was a total mistake allowing all those Russians into Israel who aren’t even really Jewish. One should be 100% Jewish to be able to immigrate to Israel.