US sanctions on Iran have resulted in big budget cuts for Hezbollah. This and Israeli operations have compromised its preparedness for battle. But the battle is coming: It’s not a matter of if but when.
by Rachel Avraham, ISRAEL HAYOM
Recent days have been extremely tense in northern Israel after Hezbollah fired a missile at an IDF vehicle. Although no one was wounded in that missile attack, pundits are wondering whether a Third Lebanon War is on the horizon.
Hezbollah has since asked Israel to bring the conflict to a halt and the firing has ceased. But IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Aviv Kochavi reiterated that the UN Interim Force in Lebanon needs to stop Hezbollah’s missile program or Israel will. According to a recent report in The Jerusalem Post, Hezbollah is currently setting up a precision missile site in Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley.
According to Mendi Safadi, head of the Safadi Center for International Diplomacy, Research, Public Relations and Human Rights: “Israel is prepared and ready for any scenario, both from Lebanon and the Syrian border; every small shell will be answered by heavy artillery that will paralyze the source of the shooting.” Nevertheless, he notes, “Hezbollah does not have the physical ability to launch a continuous war with Israel.”
According to Safadi, due to the Iran sanctions implemented by US President Donald Trump, Hezbollah’s budget has been decreased significantly. This, along with Israeli operations in Syria, has compromised its preparedness for battle. The Syrian Civil War has exhausted Hezbollah’s resources and ability to fight against Israel. Moreover, “Hezbollah has lost the support of the Lebanese street and finds itself facing a frontal collision with most of the Lebanese public, even within Shia homes.” For this reason, when Israel began to respond to Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, many locals decided to flee north and abandon the area, which forced Hezbollah head Hassan Nasrallah to “abandon the ongoing attack on Israel. It would have been a suicidal act with devastating consequences.”
Though Hezbollah is not now in the best position to take Israel on, it still seeks to threaten the Jewish state. Interestingly, just a few months ago, former Education Minister Naftali Bennett, speaking at Shurat HaDin’s annual Law and War Conference, said that Hezbollah now has 140,000 missiles aimed at Israel: “Now, they have piled up tens of thousands of missiles, embedded them within homes, and they can shoot at population centers in Israel in order to kill Israelis. You come into a home in a Lebanese village in southern Lebanon and there is a parents’ room, the children’s room, the kitchen, the living room and there is the rocket room. There is a rocket room, literally. There is a rocket targeted toward Israel. There is a movable ceiling so, like a convertible car, you can move the ceiling, shoot, and then you close it. So, they might have a dog, a cat, and a missile in their home.”
The placing of missiles in civilian homes in southern Lebanon is a callous strategy utilized by Hezbollah. “Deliberately, in the beginning, they build the homes around the missiles,” Bennett explained. “It’s a long-range missile. It is a pretty big thing. You cannot bring it in after you build the homes, so there are some homes that they actually built around the missiles. Quite literally. This happens primarily in Shiite villages but not only. You got villages where 30 to 40% of the houses are hosting missiles right now. The rest of the villages are booby-trapped.” Bennett noted that when you have 140,000 missiles aimed at Israel, this gives Hezbollah the ability to fire 1,000 missiles into Israeli civilian population centers per day over a period of five months.
For this reason, though another Lebanon war was temporarily averted, many believe that a Third Lebanon War is just a matter of time. Former Consul General Dr. Yitschak Ben Gad noted, “It is not if but when. In my opinion, Israel is changing the rules of the game. Israel is not going to tolerate Hezbollah getting accurate missiles. Israel has to take the take initiative and remove this danger of 140,000 missiles threatening our population. Now, if we listen to what [Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu says, we have a problem with Lebanon, not with just Hezbollah alone. Hezbollah is part of the government of Lebanon. This means if a war starts, it is Israel against Lebanon and that will be a catastrophe for Lebanon. It is like a war between the US and Mexico. The US would destroy Mexico.”
However, Ben Gad added that there are many Lebanese who do hate Hezbollah and these people could potentially try to rein in Hezbollah: “Most of the Lebanese think Hezbollah is a troublemaker and proxy of Iran. They are saying, what do we have to do with Iran? We are not Iran but Lebanon. Hezbollah is serving the interests of Iran, not Lebanon. They are putting Lebanon into trouble with Israel.”
Though Hezbollah seeks to threaten Israel, it is not interested in self-destruction. Its leaders still remember what happened during the Second Lebanon War in 2006, when two Israeli soldiers were abducted and killed. Lebanon suffered massive destruction during that war. Its people are still traumatized. According to Nasrallah: “Had I known the results of this war, I would not have kidnapped those two soldiers.” Ben Gad concludes, “It doesn’t pay for Hezbollah to start troubles. If many Israeli soldiers and civilians get killed, that will start a war between Israel and Lebanon.”
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