Dr. Aaron Lerner, IMRA 28 July, 2019
A committee composed of the PLO’s Executive Committee, Fatah’s Central Committee and the PA is set to meet to draw up concrete mechanisms with a specific timeline for the implementation of the Palestinian leadership’s
decision to suspend ALL the agreements signed with Israel – including security cooperation.
The official PLO news agency – WAFA – noted that in apparent reference to the security coordination, Mahmoud al-Aloul, deputy chairman of President Mahmoud Abbas’ Fatah movement told Voice of Palestine radio today that “The
Palestinian leadership’s decision to suspend the agreements signed with Israel includes all the agreements signed with it and does not exclude anything.”
If indeed the Palestinians are serious about this, the challenge for Israeli leadership today is to exploit this unilateral Palestinian move to Israel’s benefit rather than detriment.
On the simplest level, this Palestinian move would relieve Israel from the need to continue with current policy of postponing substantive Israeli action until after President Trump’s team concedes that the “Deal of the
Century” is dead.
This would be a significant gain for the Jewish State since the second round of Israeli elections has served to postpone the presentation, discussion and ultimate demise of the “Deal of the Century” to the point that this process
could extend into the 2020 American elections window.
The Palestinian move would also serve to focus the Israeli elections on addressing the post-Oslo challenge.
This would no doubt energize the national camp.
If Mahmoud Abbas isn’t bluffing he is giving Prime Minster Binyamin Netanyahu what could turn out to be a pivotal election campaign gift.
Abbas last spin is to push Bibi into confrontation with the PA . If Bibi swallows that hook , the EU-UN will step in to condemn Israel and Likud will suffer in the september elections . So Bibi refrained from taking any significant step . Hamas will try to inflame the roads and settlements but Bibi will just twist their arm .The real political action will take place after the september elections when a clear platform for extending Israel’s law to area C will be implemented .
@ Adam Dalgliesh:
As you know we differ on actions can or will take when needed by Israel.. You are petrified by the international community and believe Israel must be timid even when it own life and death issues are at stake in my view . Yes, the USA reactions must be considered.
The Iraqi nuclear reactor was destroyed in-spite of Regan’s opposition. Lots of threats and some mild actions afterward. History has proven it was clearly the right course of action. Right now Trump is by far the most friendly POTUS towards Israel in history. Yes, this could change in 2020 but hopefully it will not.
You likely will be on the extreme side of caution in regards to Israeli actions and some of us are less cautious diplomatically but realize the lack of needed action can be the more dangerous circumstance. Oslo needs to be reversed in full the sooner the better. Some did not want a preventive attack in 1967 because of the international community. This would have been a historical mistake.
Israel at some point should take preemptive strikes against Hamas and Hezbolah. There will be negative diplomatic reactions but Israel to avoid deaths needs to do this.
Israel it has been reported has struck Iran 200 times in Syria and it is speculated by Arab media has struck an Iranian missile base in Iraq now two times. The missiles are more dangerous than any potential negative international reaction.
@ Bear Klein: Bear The world is so prejudiced against Israel that even another intifada would not make the safat trapped in Tripoli, Lebanon,o-called “international communitythink that it was OK for Israel to arrest the top PLO leaders. Remember, Israel did not arrest the top PLO leaders during the ‘second intifada.” I believe that President Bush went so far , during the second intifada, to make Prime Minister Sharon promise that he wouldn’t arrest Arafat or other PLO leaders. Earlier, in 1982, when Israel had Arafat surrounded in Tripoli, Lebanon, President Reagan insisted that Israel would allow him (under American naval escort) would be allowed to find refuge in Tunisia. Outrageous, but true.
@ Adam Dalgliesh:
Ending Security would mean that the PA no longer stops potential terrorists when they find them or control riots or no longer provides Israel information on terrorists.
It could also mean that when Israel makes its nightly raids into PA cities to capture terrorists the PA Security forces do not co-operate and even try and prevent the IDF from coming in to capture terrorists.
In other words this means more terrorism in Judea/Samaria and potentially armed conflict between the PA and IDF. Also as deaths almost always let the evil genie out of the bottle and precipitates full blown conflict in the form of an intifada plus IDF crackdown.
On the question of whether Abbas is “bluffing,” Khaled Abu Toameh has an article in a recent iissue of the Jerusalem Post arguing that he is doing just that. He quotes several Palestinians with Fatah connections to the effect that Abbas has no intention of ending “security cooperation” (whatever that is supposed to mean,) with Israel, or turning down Israeli money.
@ Adam Dalgliesh:
An Expulsion like the Syrians did to the Sunni Arabs by bombing them and firing chemical weapons to ethnically cleanse them would not be done Israel to the Arabs who are non-combatants. Combatants fighting Israel might try and escape in lieu of capture or death plus destruction of the extended families homes (just applying PA law to themselves). The supporters also would be subject to arrest and might find that leaving is a better and safer option.
You are correct expelling Abbas would have international pressure. However, if another intifada breaks out because of no security cooperation, Abbas could find himself under house arrest (begging Israel to leave).
The PA would be militarily captured and guns removed when found.
NGOs would best then be created to buy Pal-Arab properties and assist these Arabs in the logistics of moving to Jordan, EU, Canada, Chile, Gulf State, Turkey or the USA (some of their favorite locales)
@ Frank Adam: Frank, your explanation of Bibi’s motives is spot on. However, Bibi is correct inhis assessment that he could not arrest and expel the PLO-“State of Palestine” leaders without bringing down on Israel the wrath of the European/Russian “Kong.” Even the U.S. would object. However, your other suggestions make sense. Israel cannot openly force or even pressure the Arabs to leave the Land of Israel without bringing down the international “Kong,” including BDS or worse, onIsrael. On the other hand, Israel could certainly provide Arabs with plane tickets in hand “safe passage” to depart.
Ironically the call to abrogate the Oslo Accords by the PA has been interpreted by some former Shin Bet Analysts to try and impact the Israeli elections. In other words to try and hurt Bibi Netanyahu and the Likud.
The Israeli press has hardly noticed Abbas ~15th call to end the Oslo Accords. If he is not crying wolf again, it may be curtains for the PA. It will get more pressure from Israel and likely Hamas attacks on them, as the Security Cooperation has the IDF and Shin Bet capturing Hamas terrorists, aided sometimes the PA’s Security Apparatus information. That is why Abbas called out to Hamas to actually mend fences for the 99th time.
Abbas is weak and his days are numbered and this is just the latest desperate act. The danger is if the Security Cooperation does end, the roads of Judea/Samaria could get more dangerous as their could be an uptick in terrorist acts.
Bibi was always cautious not to give the Do -gooders abroad an excuse to boycott Israel at government level. If the PA are really retiring from the field: arrest them and deport to Syria or Jordan, clear Arab squatters from area C but do not touch areas A and B and the mayors so that the locals remain responsible for themselves and have to pay their local taxes clear their garbage and straighten their accounts. As a bonus allow Gazans to transit to Jordan to go elsewhere – if they have the air tickets and visas in hand.
Abb’arse you aint got the bottle to do this. All you can do is sit hoping your buds make a noise for you. Have you not noticed since you first said this couple days ago silence. Truth is u n g a cannot do a thing, u n s c will get crapped on by u s. E u knows it has no legal standing, even the 4 bitches have shut up. So where ya gonna go? Ya know any country you run to will eat up all your stolen moolah. So run rabbit run run run here’s the farmer with his gun gun gun.
Oslo divided Judea/Samaria into Area’s A,B,C.
Israel should just apply it’s civil law to all of C and whatever of A or B it needs for security needs. It should state it reserves the right to apply it’s Civil Law to the remainder of Judea/Samaria as it has the historical and legal rights to it.
Destroy the terrorists. Apply its Civil Administration to formerly PA ruled Areas. Start working on creating NGOs to help incentivize the emigration of Arabs from Judea/Samaria plus Eastern parts of Jerusalem.
The question is does the Likud under Bibi have a plan for the day when the PA unravels or unleashes terrorism again against the Jews?
I would think the parties to the right of the Likud (hopefully they unite soon) would be best poised to come up with concrete plans of actions needed. There could also be political advantage in this.
Could be abb’arse will hold his breath until he turns blue in the face. Then Israel will know he really means what he says.