By Victor Rosenthal
Despite the fact that my daughter once had one of those T-shirts with a picture of an F-16 and the words “Don’t worry, America, Israel is behind you,” a mutual defense pact with the US is a terrible idea.
Senator Lindsey Graham, a great friend of Israel, recently proposed it, and there are rumors that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is considering it (right before our election, of course).
Don’t do it, Bibi.
With all due appreciation for my former country, which I still love and care about, increasing Israel’s dependence on the US is not in Israel’s interest.
Treaties are pieces of paper; countries act in ways that advance their perceived national interests regardless of what’s on the paper. In 1956, President Eisenhower promised (or appeared to promise) that the US would defend the right of passage through the Strait of Tiran, which was critical for Israel’s import of oil (in those days, we bought it from Iran!) But by 1967, President Johnson, embroiled in Vietnam, felt that he could not afford the risk that keeping Ike’s promise would involve the US in another conflict. When Egypt expelled UN troops and closed the straits to Israeli shipping, Israel was on her own.
In 2004, President Bush wrote a letter to PM Ariel Sharon encouraging him to continue with his plan to “disengage” (read: withdraw) from Gaza and northern Samaria. It included the statement that “In light of new realities on the ground, including already existing major Israeli populations [sic] centers, it is unrealistic to expect that the outcome of final status negotiations will be a full and complete return to the armistice lines of 1949.” This was understood by Israeli officials, and confirmed by Elliott Abrams, a member of Bush’s National Security Council involved in the negotiations, to imply that construction in the large existing settlement blocs such as Betar Illit could continue. Sharon went ahead with the withdrawal. But in 2009, Obama’s new Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, reneged on Bush’s promise, saying “there were no informal or oral enforceable agreements” about construction in any settlements. “These settlements must stop,” said Obama.
So much for Bush’s letter – and so much for American credibility.
Even if there were no worries about whether a future administration would live up to commitments made by a prior one, there is the question of how fast the US could come to Israel’s aid. Israel is a tiny country, with little strategic depth. Our response to an attack must be as close to immediate as possible, or it could be too late – as was almost the case in 1973. And although our politicians would deny it, the existence of a treaty would lead to complacency and the erosion of our own deterrent power. We not only ought to defend ourselves, we must.
One of the false accusations made against Israel by its opponents in the US is that “American boys have died for Israel,” in Lebanon or Iraq. A mutual defense treaty would be read as a commitment for Americans to become casualties in service of Israel, something that Israel doesn’t need or want.
I’ve argued that we would be best served by phasing out American military aid almost entirely, for multiple reasons. Israel can afford it: her state budget in 2019 is $116 billion, of which $17.5 billion goes for defense. The 10-year Memorandum of Understanding on aid negotiated with the Obama Administration calls for it to be spent entirely in the US. This weakens our own military industry. Even boots, which used to be made in Israel, are imported from America. And if we had a thriving military industry, sales of weapons to other countries might offset some of the loss in American aid.
Aid also distorts our purchase decisions. If the Americans are offering something for “free,” why build our own or buy something else that might be better?
Further, the existing aid arrangement gives the US too much leverage over Israeli policy. Perhaps we are happy with the Trump Administration’s recent actions on Jerusalem, the Golan Heights, UNRWA, and so on, but have we forgotten how the Obama Administration cut off the supply of Hellfire missiles during the 2014 war with Hamas in Gaza?
In 2012, PM Netanyahu and then Defense Minister Ehud Barak wanted to preemptively attack Iranian nuclear facilities, but were prevented from doing so by massive American pressure, including leaks about Israeli intentions. Perhaps Obama would have stopped Israel in any event, but the leverage of military aid on Israeli defense officials made it easier. I can’t prove it, but couldn’t then Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi – who strongly opposed bombing Iran – have been influenced by the folks that provided almost a quarter of his budget?
Trump will not be president forever, and some of his opponents today make Obama and Kerry look like Zionists. Shouldn’t we prepare for the worst case, rather than the best?
There are some things that we do want from the US. Continued diplomatic support in international forums, continued security and intelligence cooperation (which often greatly benefits the US), and continued sharing of defense technology, as we had with Iron Dome and other systems. We want to be treated as an ally, not as a target of diplomatic warfare and espionage, as we are by many European governments – and as we were for the Obama Administration.
We would like to be able to buy the weapons that we need with our own money, and would like to see the policy of helping us maintain a qualitative edge over our enemies continue. We would appreciate non-interference in our internal affairs, and also in our economic relations with other nations. These things would cost the US nothing – indeed, they would pay dividends – and save $3.8 billion in annual military aid.
One of the lessons the Jewish people learned from the Holocaust was that we could not rely on the non-Jewish world to come to our aid in times of danger. Today as antisemitism is growing throughout the world, even in the US, and when our regional enemies are putting strategies into place that they believe will be our undoing, it is more important than ever that we stay as strong – and as independent – as possible.
@ Sebastien Zorn:
I don’t now how the US military men knew that Israel would win within 7 days, because the main reason they won was because of the unprecedented methods of air attack, the unheard of speedy and magnificent turn-around time, and the destruction of the enemy air power ON THE GROUND in the first hours.
If you recall, there was a BBC reporter on the scene, and he was hysterically shouting over the airways that Israel has already won the war, but no-one believed him. I forget his name, I could look it up, but leave it to others. BUT IT IS FACT..I HEARD HIM MYSELF.coming through all the static. If that had not occurred…. then it could have been a hard, slogging long drawn out war, lasting maybe months.
I believe you are right about Johnson. I recall those days vividly. (never to be forgotten) and avidly absorbed every single word about Johnson’s unsuccessful attempts to assemble an International coalition to send ships through the Straits to break the blockade. BUT….
I condemn him at the same time for pusillanimity, because a handful of American ships could easily have done the very same thing. Even a single US ship, say a destroyer, accompanied by a few Israel ships, would have done the trick. Nasser would NEVER have dared, in his wildest manias to have ordered fire upon any of these ships.
I have considered all your opinions regarding the real Graham and I prefer to stick with my view. Graham is working in tandem with Trump. Sometimes taking the possibtion of good cop to Trumps’ bad cop. But I believe they share the same goal.
Graham wants to appear independent rather than as Trump’s puppet or yes man. Watch and see.
“Las Vegas on April 6, 2019 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Ethan Miller/Getty Images/AFP)
“South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham said Saturday he wanted the United States to enter into a mutual defense agreement with Israel.
“Graham said at the annual meeting of the Republican Jewish Coalition in Las Vegas Saturday that it’s time for the US to declare to the world how important its relationship is with Israel.”
”
South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham said Saturday he wanted the United States to enter into a mutual defense agreement with Israel.
Graham said at the annual meeting of the Republican Jewish Coalition in Las Vegas Saturday that it’s time for the US to declare to the world how important its relationship is with Israel.
“The pact would show the international community that “an attack against Israel would be considered an attack against the United States,” he said.
— https://www.timesofisrael.com/senator-proposes-us-enter-defense-pact-with-israel/
This is already the implicit US position regarding Israel; so there is no reason that President Trump or anyone else in the US Government should want to bind us (the US) to such a promise. If Trump is defeated in 2020, nobody needs delude themselves: the US would reverse course and oppose, and even threaten the existence of, Israel, according to the pleasure of Israel-haters like AOC and Ilhan Omar; and a Democratic US President would not honor any treaty in this regard.
What matters for Israel, is who controls America — not a worthless piece of paper.
Vic shouldn’t worry that the U.S. will propose a security treaty with Israel. It never has, and it never will. Trump has shown no interest in a treaty with Israel, and Congress would never ratify such a treaty.
The supposed agreements with the United States in the past never existed except in the minds of Israeli leaders. The Americans never committed themselves to giving military or even diplomatic support for Israel.
Graham turned on Pompeo over the Khashoggi murder: https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-us-canada-46435488/lindsey-graham-turns-on-pompeo-over-khashoggi-murder
BTW, Khashoggi was a Muslim Brotherhood operative who supported Hamas and Al Qaeda. He hoped that Israel would “die by force.”
The politics are complicated for the U.S. Saudi Arabia, with one of the most powerful lobbies in D.C., is a frenemy that participated in the 9/11 attacks and outwardly supports Israel at the moment. It is serving as a useful buffer against the Islamic terrorist state of Iran for the time being. Yes, the Saudis are subverting our educational system and control most of the mosques (Wahhabist) in the U.S. preaching hatred of Jews and Christians. (Admittedly, our position is a bit schizophrenic).
@ Ted Belman: I think he is still an opponent. While Trump is supporting the Saudis , Graham is opposing the Saudis. Of course politics apply…
One of the lessons the Jewish people learned from the Holocaust was that we could not rely on the non-Jewish world to come to our aid in times of danger. The essence…
@ Janet Levy:
i am hopeful that osmething else is going on here.
Didn’t Graham used to be a never Trumper until he wasn’t. Now he is a big supporter of Trump.
I am hoping that he recently espoused support of the two -state solution, that really is incomprehensible, as a prelude to embracing regime change in Jordan. This will enable him to bring a lot of two staters with him. Then he will get back on board the Trump train.
I agree with the article. Israel has always prided itself on fighting for itself. The fastest way to lose the USA as a friend would be to have US soldiers dying on behalf of Israel.
Israel can ONLY depend on Israel. The USA has been a good friend but that does mean the countries interests are always aligned perfectly.
I agree with the article though I think it is unfair to Johnson.
““Johnson,’’ said Ephraim Evron, the influential minister at the Israeli embassy in Washington, “tried to organize an international naval force [to break the blockade], but it didn’t work. He also sent letters and envoys to Cairo to persuade President Nasser to reduce the tension by returning to the status quo ante, but in vain. We knew that, in the end, we would have to shatter the blockade ourselves.’’
What Johnson knew, thanks to highly classified CIA and armed-forces intelligence reports, was that U.S. defense experts were predicting a swift Israeli victory in the event of war.
General Earle Wheeler, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, would later recall: “I told [Johnson] that our best estimate was that if there was a war, that the Israelis would win it in five to seven days. He asked me to go back and check this out and talk to him again. I did, and I came back and told him exactly the same thing – that there’s just no question; that the way the two sides lined up in the air and on the ground, the Israelis would win.…’’
That assessment was shared by Israel’s own military leaders, who knew how much stronger the country’s armed forces had grown over the previous decade and who pushed hard for Prime Minister Levi Eshkol, a cautious man by nature, to give the word for a pre-emptive strike.”
https://www.jewishpress.com/indepth/front-page/who-was-the-first-genuinely-pro-israel-u-s-president/2017/08/30/
Addendum to above comment:
Graham insists on a two-state solution.
https://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Lindsey-Graham-a-Trump-confidant-insists-on-two-state-solution-592572
Listen (video link below) to what British Colonel Richard Kemp, retired after almost 30 years of military service, has to say about the idea. Colonel Kemp commanded operations in Afghanistan, served as an infantry battalion Commanding Officer, worked for the Joint Intelligence Committee and COBR and completed 14 operational tours of duty across the world.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=AsnQgWZ8BSI&time_continue=237. (4 min.)
Lindsey Graham is NO great friend to Israel. He was one of the Senate Republicans , along with his partner in crime, John McCain, who helped arm the Muslim Brotherhood and supported Morsi’s takeover of Egypt during the so-called “Arab Spring.” See Andy McCarthy, National Review here:
https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#search/lindsey+graham/FMfcgxwCgzHmZHRDlWswTQHjrmDLTDfh
A few months ago, Graham pushed for a bill to provide $50 million in Arab-Palestinian Aid and “coexistence programs.”
https://www.israpundit.org/u-s-lawmakers-push-bipartisan-bill-for-50-million-in-palestinian-aid-coexistence-programs/?
Domestically (in the U.S.), he’s after our Second Amendment rights and has supported open borders. He wasn’t called Lindsey Grahamnesty by Mark Levin for nothing!
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2007/08/lindsey_grahams_aboutface_comments.html
It is such a shame that EMET honored Graham with an award recently. He doesn’t deserve the recognition and validation! It gives him pro-Israel bona fides that he hasn’t earned; quite the contrary.