By Barbara Diamond, TOI JUNE 26, 2019 10:39
When one attends the annual Shurat Ha Din conference on Law and War, it is a marathon of experts presenting their views on the International understanding of the protocols of fighting a war. It is an update on fighting international terrorist network funding. It is an opportunity to face uncomfortable truths and to digest sensitive new information which we had not heard before. One never knows what will stand out as life-changing information.
At the end of two days of seminars, military experts, politicians, international previous heads of State, technology experts and International leaders – new conclusions came upon me which I must now digest and share with you.
The first and most critical conclusion is quite simply that Israel will be at war with Lebanon in the not too distant future. It may be one year or two or three…but it is coming. It is really quite absurd as the Lebanese people have quite a good life and Israel makes no demands upon them and threatens them in no fashion. I am quite sure that the Lebanese people do not relish the idea of their homes being destroyed, family members dying and their way of life being decimated. But that is exactly what is waiting for them if there is no international attention, world-wide pressure and internal rebellion against Nazrallah’s leadership of Hezbollah.
The influence of Iran as the major player behind all that is evolving is beyond dispute. Whilst the world essentially is terrified of a nuclear capable Iran, they manage to avoid dealing with the reality that Iran is at the core of all of the previous and potential wars in the Middle East. When it was revealed that Lebanon has shored up its missiles to a whopping 140,000 units, it seemed an impossible number. Surely someone has made a mistake? Where did they come from? Who paid for them? Numbers are easy to dismiss … but facts are not.
The answers became clear over the past two days at the Shurat Ha Din conference. Iran has paid for it all and is using Hezbollah in Lebanon as its surrogate to “handle” the Israeli problem. The dots became connected when specialists on North Korea explained that country’s role in all that is developing. Whilst pretending to be interested in joining the “family of nations” North Korea is in fact not only selling Iran all the weapons It needs, but is setting up factories in Iran which are staffed with North Korean employees who make the weapons with the parts secretly shipped from North Korea on the open seas. According to the two experts, a ship from North Korea with contraband can change its flags and name on the outside up to twenty plus times in one journey in order to avoid international detection. That the dictator Kim Jae-ryong’s family is essentially evil and demagogic can be validated with the recent revelation that North Korean emissaries who were sent to meet with the U.S. negotiators returned to North Korea only to be assassinated for not bringing back the information the regime required as to what they considered the USA’s “true intentions.”
The world is facing a new group of evil players who are not dissimilar to Adolph Hitler, to whom Alan Dershowitz referred when discussing the need for nations to face evil before it has a chance to fully evolve. Dershowitz explained that had Churchill attacked Hitler in the early days, a possible 100,000 Germans might have been killed. By waiting until Europe had no option but to go to war, the result was a death toll of fifty million people. It does seem that no one is capable of learning from the lessons of history…regardless of their enormity.
Until Naftali Bennett explained that Israel’s army will never again go into Lebanon to dismantle a missile as he did when he was a specialist in the Army during the Lebanon war in which he served, it was unclear what he was about to reveal. He reports that Israel now knows that 30% to 40% of the homes in Lebanon are built with a missile room as part of the residence. That room has a ceiling which can be opened electronically so the missile can be shot from the residence. This explains how 140,000 missiles can be out of sight to overhead surveillance. Large homes are actually built around the larger missiles as they would be too large to bring into a previously built structure. Lebanon is gearing up for war. Hezbollah is in control of Lebanon now. The government of Israel knows it. Now we know it.
The creativeness of this approach is the Arab mentality at its most vile. Because they trust that Israel will not fire upon civilian targets and will follow the rules of international warfare, they presume that they will have the upper hand. They think Israel will be so torn at the thought of killing innocents, that they will not be able to defend themselves swiftly. Experts believe that Hezbollah will open the next war with 3,000 to 4,000 rockets per day aimed at Israel. Divide that into 140,000 and you can imagine the potential length of the war. That of course presumes that Israel will be caught unaware. It will not be.
Naftali Bennett unexpectedly became the most interesting speaker of the two days…because although he did not reveal the Israeli security cabinet’s plan for reprisal, he made it clear that the laws which exist for international warfare are outmoded… and hence invalid. Warfare will no longer be man to man combat on the ground. Technology has taken warfare into a terrifying place and the law is lagging behind so severely as to be irrelevant in future conflagrations.
By definition, if one allows one’s home to host a missile, then the members of the family in that home are no longer innocent collateral damage, but part of the military force intent on participating in an all-out war. That changes all prior assumptions. The very same Israeli army which up until now discussed every detail with lawyers without making a military move, would now need to have carte blanche to destroy every home, hospital, mosque and school in defense of our Nation state. The laws on the books do not begin to deal with the new realities of potential combat here in the middle east.
It is certainly not for me to say that Israel would use an atomic bomb on Lebanon, but there may be no alternative.
Alan Dershowitz spoke to the conference with stunning information which I myself had missed somewhere along the line. He reports that the Grand Mullah of Iran claims that once they reach nuclear capabilities, it will take only one bomb to kill three million Israelis. When they are reminded that Israel has nuclear capabilities which could kill 20 to 30 million of their people, they shrug their shoulders and say…”that is fine with us. We will lose people but the Muslim faith will survive. “ Little wonder the people of Iran are terrified of the Mullahs. Rightly so. If the Iranian population does not wake up soon and depose them by force, their own nation could be decimated in this web of evil intent.
Professor Dershowitz discussed at great length the need for pre-emptive action. He explained that in International law, when there is clear evidence that an enemy plans to destroy another nation, that other nation has the right of first attack. Will Israel wait for the first three or four thousand missiles to rain down on it before it reacts ?
Iran has created an opportunity for their own people to survive unscathed by encouraging Hezbollah to do its bidding.
The Israelis who are angry at their Prime Minister for not destroying Gaza as Hamas sends hundreds of rockets toward our Southern towns are not looking at the entire picture. What we have not been privy to is the severity of the situation in Lebanon. If Israel begins another war with Gaza, it would be the perfect time for Hezbollah to garner the will to begin their own attack. This is not a war which will be fought on the ground. Our soldiers will not be going into the houses to find the missiles… drones will locate them and homes and families will be decimated. Preserving peace is a delicate balance.
The message given loud and clear at the end of the conference by Nitsana Darshan-Leitner founder and president of the organization thirteen years ago, is that it is our individual obligation to let the entire world know -now … that in the next Lebanon war, all civilians will be considered combatants and will not be spared. If we share the message with clarity, there is actually a possibility that the Lebanese people who do not have the missiles in their homes will force Hezbollah out of their lives so that they will survive.
For the first time ever, I am taking pause to consider whether the time is right for an “Unity” government in spite of all the dis-unity we have witnessed. With our enemies taking themselves to a new level, we need to be cohesive as a Nation prepared to support one another rather than waste our efforts with petty deprecation.
Thus far Israel has taken the moral high ground in every war effort. How long will it be before that is no longer a viable option?
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Born in the Washington DC area, Barbara has been a pro Israel activist for over four decades, having had a radio show in Jerusalem called “Barbara Diamond One on One” , doing in depth interviews which aired in Israel and in the UK. She participated in missions to the USSR to meet with Refuseniks, to Ethiopia with a medical team to help the Jewish villages and to China to open up relations prior to China recognizing the State of Israel, She has been pro-active lobbying congress and helping to start a Pro Israel PAC in Los Angeles. She stays involved through the Jerusalem Press Club attending up to the moment briefings which she would like to share with the readers. Ms. Diamond is the 2018 recipient of the “StandWithUs”-Israel leadership award.
@ Bertram Cohen: Good points, Bertram.
Unfortunately, Israel doesn’t have the power that the United States has. Partly for that reason ,and also because it is a small country that coud easily be wiped out with one nuke, but mainly because of antisemitism, the “international community” feels comfortable applying a moral “double standard” to Israel, and getting very moralistic and snotty when Israel does something that is considered OK when done by one of the Great Powers.
As a result, Israel would face “BDS” enforced by the European Union and encouraged by the UN, if it undertook to use nukes against Hezbollah or any other “actor” in the middle East. A retaliatory military strike by either Russia (not such a great friend of Israel as people think) or even Britain (never a friend of Israel) could not be excluded. And the USA would also do a lot of moralistic, hypocritical clucking and would refuse to come to Israel’s defense. Also, probably cut off arms supplies to Israel.
We don’t live in a fair or rational world. Most governments are run by antisemites, bullies and hypocrites. This is the main reason why Israel is so cautious about striking at its enemies, although it has every moral right to do so.
@ Bertram Cohen: Good points, Bertram.
Unfortunately, Israel doesn’t have the power that the United States has. Partly for that reason ,and also because it is a small country that coud easily be wiped out with one nuke, but mainly because of antisemitism, the “international community” feels comfortable applying a moral “double standard” to Israel, and getting very moralistic and snotty when Israel does something that is considered OK when done by one of the Great Powers.
As a result, Israel would face “BDS” enforced by the European Union and encouraged by the UN, if it undertook to use nukes against Hezbollah or any other “actor” in the middle East. A retaliatory military strike by either Russia (not such a great friend of Israel as people think) or even Britain (never a friend of Israel) could not be excluded. And the USA would also do a lot of moralistic, hypocritical clucking and would refuse to come to Israel’s defense. Also, probably cut off arms supplies to Israel.
We don’t live in a fair or rational world. Most governments are run by antisemites, bullies and hypocrites. This is the main reason why Israel is so cautious about striking at its enemies, although it has every moral right to do so.
@ Philippe:
In 1945 the U.S. twice nuked civilians in Japan, with no warning, who were no threat to us. The U.S. was not accused of a war crime and never punished. This makes a strong case for Israel to nuke the missile sites in Lebanon with no warning.
Note that U.N resolution 1701, after the 2006 Lebanon war, forbade re-arming this same area. The U.N placed monitors to insure compliance – which they failed to accomplish.
Thus the U.N. and the West has forfeited any moral right to tell Israel how to defend itself. If Israel hesitates, and thereby puts her own people at risk, THAT would be a war crime!
Israel has always had the “moral high ground” as a matter of fact. And they won’t lose it. But because Israelis have failed to engage in a counter-propaganda campaign for over seventy years, while the Arabs have continuously conducted a massive, well-financed and clever propaganda war against Israel, they have gradually persuaded the world that they have the moral high ground, and Israel is the “oppressor.” This false perceptionwon’t change when the next Lebanon war occurs. regardless of how much Israel tries to protect Arab civilians.
The war would have an Israeli ground operation to drive the Hezbollah deep into Lebanon away from the Israeli border.
Also all of Lebanon’s infrastructure would need to be destroyed including road networks to safeguard Israel. Israel now has artillery that is highly accurate besides for 100s of aircraft that can fire 10 missiles at at time to different targets. This does not account for the drones.
Israel would be hit by missiles and some would get through the Iron Dome defenses. To minimize damage to Israel all of Southern Lebanon would be destroyed without warning.
If Dershowitz said this , he was being very misleading or was confused. Churchill did not have the power to do anything to Hitler until he became Prime Minister in 1940. Even then, he faced determined opposition from within his own cabinet for refusing to surrender to Germany in 1940. He only won the vote to continue the war by one vote, 7 to 6, in a secret meeting of the British government’s “war cabinet” in 1940.
A mistatement of established IDF policies since the pre-state period. Israel has never treated civilians as combatants, and never will. But it cannot protect civilians from harm when the enemy forces use them as human shields, as they do both in Lebanon or Gaza. But the IDF, even if miraculously freed from the control of the lawyers, will never deliberately target them. That would violate the IDF’s 70-plus year tradition of “the purity of arms.”
Ground operations may be necessary to drive Hezbollah soldiers and their Lebanese army allies out of southern Lebanon and prevent, or repel, a Hezbollah invasion of Israel with ground troops. Of course this kind of operation will result in heavy IDF casualties, But it may prove unavoidable.
Bennett is hopelessly confused here. It is not the law that lags behind modern military technology–it is that Israel’s “legal” establishment forbids its use if it endangers Arab civilians. Bennet should have enough experience to know that Israeli judges and government lawyers do not bother themselves with the law–only with their own ethical and political standards.
Israel’s judges and government lawyers do not base their rulings and orders on international law, or even Israeli law. They are quite open about this. Rather they decide, purely on the basis of whether they consider it “reasonable,” whether to grant permission to the government to move forward with any decision, or to forbid it. Their only criterion for this “reasonableness standard” is their own subjective judgment as to what is reasonable. They have even arrogated to themselves the power to forbid military operations on what they consider “humanitarian” grounds.
This has made it impossible for the IDF to take action against either Hezbollah or Hamas. The Supreme Court, the Attorney General and the Advocate General all concur that any military operation that could cause Arab civilian deaths is inhumane, and hence “unreasonable,” even if permitted by international law.
Actually, they do. International law is clear that a nation under attack has the right to attack all genuine military targets, even if there are civilians in or very near those targets who may be killed when they are destroyed. One of the Geneva conventions on war is explicit on this point.
The real nub of the problem is the power of these lawyers, exercised through the Advocate General’s office, to prevent any military operation that they believe could cause death or injury to Arab civilians. The Attorney General and the Supreme Court, despite their lack of military expertise, have issued similar orders to the military not to carry out any operation if there is a risk of civilian deaths. Will the lawyers suddenly lose this power if Hezbollah launches a strike against Israel? Or if the military command decides that a preventive strike is necessary? Not very likely. That is the nub of Israel’s security problem–having been stabbed in the back by our own all-powerful, pro-Arab and anti-Zionist government lawyers. They are the fifth column that will enable Hezbollah, Iran and Hamas to win.
The only MORAL option is to crush the enemy and to win in the most definitive way.
To crush the enemy we have to preempt the strategic danger and according to Ms Darshan-Leitner we are way past the deadline .
I am fed up with all the moral-legal-light to the nations-tikkunism blah-blah.
It’s very soon or never .
As I remember my British College OTC training in the early 60’s the military operation in process takes priority and it is the civilians’ reponsibility to leave the battle area or stay in shelters. The argument being the sooner the battle is decided and the lead stops flying the sooner all are safe. This does not cancel the prohibition on deliberately killing civilians when no military object is in question. NB historically the civilian economy (so the civilians) was part of the booty to pay for the war by taxes.
The Arabs have already provided Israel with their own Arab justification to bomb houses magazining rockets in their claimed right to Arab bus bombing. Arabs told the international press and public that bombing Israeli civilians in civil buses was OK because those buses were used to move troops in war and even in peace they were moving reservists and troops on leave passage. However the international law on reservists is that they are civilians unless in uniform and mobilised/ing. Besides when the IDF was poor it did mobilise buses and lorries for infantry transport to battle areas, but not in battle, but since the 1973 YK War inclusive Israeli troops move in troop carrying vehicles – M113’s etc which are military.
It follows that if it is necessary to save Israeli troops and civilians by bombing or shelling buildings known to contain rockets that is legal to shell etc them; and the civil inhabitants who have been suborned or billetted (against the Bill of Rights in “peacetime”) to accept those rockets, are responsible for taking themselves into a strong /safe room or an “Anderson shelter” in the garden.
Unfortunately, any war involving Hezbollah will require Israel to face massive missile attacks or to apply mass destruction of Hezbollah staging areas. It might be possible to do so in some areas while using conventional arms. In other areas, nothing short of atomic weapons would stop Hezbollah. It is something that Israel should consider. Mabruk to Barbara for realizing and writing.